SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001   
   ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP01   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1  ARLP001   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 7, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP001   
   ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers were up nearly 24 points this week to   
   50, and average daily solar flux rose over 9 points to 89.5.  The   
   lagging 3-month average of daily sunspot numbers was down 3.5 points   
   from last month's average of the previous three months.  The three   
   month moving average of daily sunspot numbers, ending on June   
   through December was 16.2, 20.4, 23.2, 28.9, 33, 35.6 and 32.1.   
      
   The latest forecast from NOAA/USAF for the near term has a solar   
   flux of 88 on January 7, 86 on January 8-9, 84 on January 10, 82 on   
   January 11, 80 on January 12-15 and 78 on January 16-18, 80 again on   
   January 19-25, 88 on January 26-30, and 90 on January 31 through   
   February 2.  Planetary A index is predicted at 7 on January 7, 10 on   
   January 8-10, 8 on January 11 and 5 on January 12-19.   
      
   The geomagnetic prediction from Geophysical Institute Prague is   
   quiet to unsettled January 7, unsettled January 8-9, quiet to   
   unsettled January 10, and quiet January 11-13.   
      
   Yekta Gursel, KJ6DRO alerted us to an article in the February 2011   
   issue of "Sky and Telescope" titled "The Perfect Solar Superstorm."   
   You can read most of it online by going to   
   http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/newtrack/st_201102/#/28 and clicking   
   on "Preview" if you are not a subscriber.  Your local library may   
   also provide online access to the magazine.  The article begins on   
   page 28.   
      
   David Moore, who is not a radio amateur but has a keen interest in   
   all things solar, sent a link to a National Science Foundation   
   article on why the corona of the Sun is millions of degrees hotter   
   than the surface.  You can read it at   
   http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=118338.   
      
   Ken Lappe, W1YO of Leesburg, Florida is puzzled by the lack of HF DX   
   during this time when we have sunspot activity.  He wrote, "The past   
   few days Jan 3, 4 and 5, the sunspot number has been in the 50 range   
   and the solar flux in the low 90s with very low A and K indices.   
   All indications suggest at least fair conditions on the higher   
   bands.  But this is not the case.  Yes we hear some sporadic-E at   
   times and some trans-equatorial propagation at times on 12 and 10   
   meters.  But otherwise the bands are dead, or so it seems. ZL4WW was   
   weak here in central Florida on 12 meters yesterday around 1900z,   
   but nothing else was heard.  Even 17 meters has been quiet in the   
   afternoon and nothing special in the mornings. So, the question is:   
   If we have sunspots and solar flux and quiet As and Ks where is the   
   DX?"   
      
   It may just be a combination of seasonal Winter conditions and   
   sunspot activity not high enough to support much long distance   
   propagation.  A look at a propagation program, such as W6ELprop, is   
   instructive.   
      
   Using a predicted smoothed sunspot number of 39 for January 5 (see   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly then go to page 11 of the January 4   
   edition for the source) from Ken's Florida location to New Zealand,   
   12 meters looks marginal.  17 meters looks good over that path, but   
   only from 0200-0500z.   
      
   Look a few months ahead to April, and with a smoothed sunspot number   
   of 51, conditions look considerably better.   
      
   Now 12 meters opens 1930-0300z, and 17 meters is open during Ken's   
   local evening until 0530z.   
      
   But perhaps Ken is accustomed to better HF openings at this time of   
   year with this level of solar activity.  In that case, I don't know.   
      
   Walt Knodle of Bend, Oregon wrote on January 2, "I had an   
   interesting experience on 40 meters this morning, interesting   
   because of the timing relative to reading an article by K9LA on skew   
   paths in the January 2011 World Radio Online.   
      
   "That article was directed toward 160 meter propagation, but seemed   
   appropriate for conditions on 40 meters today. While listening for   
   VU2GSM I noticed his signal was stronger along the long path than   
   the short path. However, the LP was almost entirely in daylight so   
   something else was at play. In swinging the beam toward the LP I   
   could hear Kanti's signal pass through a very definite peak between   
   the SP and LP headings. The best heading was directly SW of my QTH   
   and along the grey line. Assuming a refraction point near the   
   equator, this would follow Carl's example from the WRO article and   
   implicate the equatorial ionization anomaly. One side benefit of the   
   skew path was that it placed the Chinese OTH radar at 90 degrees to   
   my beam heading."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 30 through January 5 were 24, 23, 65,   
   38, 51, 54, and 50, with a mean of 43.6. 10.7 cm flux was 82.9,   
   90.9, 91, 91.1, 92.1, 90.6 and 87.7 with a mean of 89.5. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 5, 4, 3, 3, 4, 4 and 2 with a mean of 3.6.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3 and 2 with a   
   mean of 2.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   ---   
                                   ========   
      
   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
   fidonet echomail without alteration other than the removal of   
   email header and other control information which   
   is not part of the actual publication.   
      
   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
   ---   
    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)