SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028   
   ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP28   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28  ARLP028   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  July 11, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP028   
   ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity strengthened recently, with average daily sunspot   
   numbers for the seven days ending June 25 at 72.3, rising 43.3   
   points to 115.6 for the seven days ending July 2, then rising 89.5   
   to an average of 205.1 for the period ending July 9.   
      
   Similarly, average daily solar flux for the seven days ending on   
   June 25 was 98.8, which rose 30.7 points to 129.5 on July 2, and   
   then rose 64.4 points to 193.9 on July 9.   
      
   We don't have predictions for daily sunspot numbers, but the   
   predicted average solar flux for the seven days following July 9 is   
   152.5, a decline of 41.4 points from the previous seven days.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the near term is 175, 160, and 150 on July   
   11-13, then 140, 135 and 130 on July 14-16, then 125, 110 and 105 on   
   July 17-19, 100 on July 20-21, 95 on July 22-23, then 100, 110, 125,   
   135 and 140 on July 24-28, and 160 on July 29-30. Solar flux then   
   peaks at 205 on August 3-5, and declines to 95 on August 18-19,   
   before rising again in the following days.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 11-12, then 10, 8, 12 and 8   
   on July 13-16, 5 on July 17-25, 8 on July 26, 5 on July 27 through   
   August 4, and 8 on August 5-10, and 12 on August 11.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to   
   active on July 11, mostly quiet July 12-13, quiet to active July 14,   
   quiet to unsettled July 15, quiet to active July 16-17, quiet July   
   18-20, quiet to active July 21-22, mostly quiet July 23-24, quiet to   
   unsettled July 25-26, quiet July 27-28, mostly quiet July 29, quiet   
   to unsettled July 30-31, quiet August 1-2, quiet to unsettled August   
   3, quiet to active August 4, and mostly quiet August 5-6.   
      
   Phil Russo, N8XA of Dayton, Ohio reported hearing EA8DBM (Canary   
   Islands) for over two hours on 50.157 MHz on July 5 at 40dB over S9.   
      
   Ray Soifer, W2RS of Green Valley, Arizona also had an EA8DBM report:   
      
   "Yesterday (July 5) started out frustrating. From here in DM41 I   
   heard W5s and W0s working all sorts of 50 MHz DX that I could not   
   hear. I worked a few East Coast stations on double-hop Es, but that   
   was all.   
      
   "Finally (1747Z), I worked EA8DBM, a new one for me on 6 and the   
   only DX station I heard all day. I wonder, though, about the   
   propagation mode. I gave him a 55 report, but his signal later built   
   up to S8.  That seems awfully strong for 4- or 5-hop Es (the   
   distance is 5456 miles). With the solar flux so high, could it have   
   been F2?   
      
   "On 6 meters I am running 150 watts to a multi-band vertical   
   (Hy-Gain AV620)."   
      
   John Geiger, AF5CC of Lawton, Oklahoma also speculated: "I was   
   wondering the same thing about EA8DBM. He was a real S7 on the meter   
   here around 1840Z. Seemed very loud for multihop Es and the flux and   
   SSN was pretty high. Is F2 possible on 6m in July?"   
      
   No, this was probably linked sporadic-E layer propagation, because   
   solar activity has not been nearly high enough to support F2 on 6   
   meters.   
      
   Jim Henderson, KF7E of Queen Creek, Arizona wrote on July 6:   
      
   "No doubt the great improvement in SFI, low solar winds, etc, will   
   prompt a raft of comments from happy long-weekend DXers.   
      
   "Simply put, from here in Arizona the combination of high solar flux   
   (best since January 2014?) low solar winds (under 300 Km/S) and   
   generally quiet geomagnetic conditions have put fireworks back into   
   HF and 6m.   
      
   "Just when bands sounded empty and 'dead,' something most unusual   
   would show up to get the fun meter going. From Arizona, several Lil   
   Pistols worked EA8 and others on 6m. And 28, 24, and 21 MHz have   
   been sterling performers.   
      
   "On 12m, A65CB, HZ1BW, JY9FC, as well as a host of EUR, Zone 16 and   
   17, all wafting through the ionosphere. At times propagation was all   
   the way from JY to E51.   
      
   "15m had S01WS, UN6GDX, 9H1EJ, some 4Z stations, and many semi rare   
   ones from all points of the compass. And 17m after sunset here   
   continues to dazzle the listener.   
      
   "Let us see, by the time you publish this week, if the SFI stays up   
   all week, as it did in January (200 - 220)."   
      
   Well, no the solar flux did not stay up, but I appreciate the   
   enthusiasm, and let's hope for more surprises.   
      
   On July 7, Dan Soderland, KB0EO of Northfield, Minnesota wrote:   
      
   "There were reports of operators in the black hole of the upper   
   Midwest making QSOs on 6 meters into Africa and Europe on Saturday.   
   I spent a fair amount of time on Sunday waiting for a possible   
   opening and was able to score EA8 and D4 on 6 meter CW from southern   
   Minnesota. It took a number of calls to get through as I am only   
   running 100 watts and a 5 element Yagi at 85 feet.   
      
   "I called CQ a little later and to my surprise, LZ2HM came back to   
   me with an S5 solid signal. Thinking it might have been a slim, I   
   emailed Andy in Bulgaria, who confirmed the QSO was legit - my first   
   EU QSO on 6 meters! The opening to Europe lasted no more than 30   
   seconds - no other stations in EU worked or heard. The band was   
   really hopping all day around North America - great conditions to   
   east coast and west coast. Numerous KL7 stations were spotted on the   
   cluster, but I was not able to hear them."   
      
   For photos of Dan's station, videos including one of his antennas in   
   a windstorm, and a photo of Dan playing banjo while wearing a fake   
   beard, visit http://www.qrz.com/db/kb0eo .   
      
   Jim White, WD0E of Parker, Colorado wrote, "Just worked KL7 then 10   
   minutes later CT1 (7/7/14 2000UTC). Both 59 from DM79. Yesterday was   
   the wildest opening I've ever heard on 6. I worked EA8 early then a   
   pileup of both Midwest and NE US stations for two hours in the   
   morning and could have all day but my voice gave out. Heard nearly   
   every possible propagation mode on the same day, sometimes within   
   minutes in one direction or another. Only thing left out was   
   aurora."   
      
   Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI didn't benefit from the recent 6 meter   
   propagation, but he sent this interesting article about signals and   
   ion trails from fireballs in the sky:   
      
   http://phys.org/news/2014-07-scientists-radio-emissions-fireballs.html   
      
   Dave Greer, N4KZ of Frankfort, Kentucky wrote on July 9, "Solar   
   Cycle 24 -- the little cycle that wouldn't quit. What else is there   
   to say?   
      
   "Propagation on 12 meters has been interesting, even entertaining in   
   recent days. At 1459 UTC on July 5, I called CQ on 12 meter SSB and   
   JK4CHT replied. Signals were about 5x6 both ways. Hide said his   
   local time in Japan was midnight -- mid-morning at my Kentucky QTH   
   -- and he was amazed to hear 12 meters open and an American station   
   coming through at that.   
      
   "A day later, I again called CQ on 12 meter SSB at 0235 UTC and   
   WB0TVY in nearby Missouri answered. Kent noted how short the skip   
   was. Ten minutes into our QSO, Jeff, N8II in West Virginia joined   
   us. All signals were strong and now we had three stations in   
   Missouri, Kentucky and West Virginia all talking with one another   
   like it was 75 meters. But it wasn't. It was 12 meters where E-skip   
   signals that close in aren't normally heard. It was the first time   
   each of the three of us had worked those states on 12.   
      
   "And 6 meters has finally gotten lively again. The 2013 E-skip   
   season was a major disappointment here in grid EM78. Domestic E-skip   
   was sparse last year and I only heard Europe once and then only   
   briefly.  Previous years had provided many domestic and DX multihop   
   E-skip contacts on 6 across the U.S., Europe, the Caribbean and the   
   Canary Islands.   
      
   "But 2014 is proving to be a return to the good times of previous   
   years. Already, I have worked into Europe a couple of times. One CW   
   QSO was with SM7FJE in Sweden at 2054 UTC on July 3. That was a new   
   one for me -- my 72nd entity on 6 meters. A second Swedish station   
   was heard a few minutes later but not worked. Scandinavia is very   
   rare from here on 6.   
      
   "July 6 yield three QSOs into the Canary Islands -- a location I've   
   been fortunate enough to have worked numerous times before on 6   
   meters. Starting at 1421 UTC I worked EA8DBM on phone and CW and   
   EA8BPX on SSB.   
      
   "My HF station runs 500 watts to an 8-element log periodic at 60   
   feet. On 6 meters, it's a more modest 100 watts to a 5-element Yagi   
   at 65 feet. But my Frankfort, KY QTH is fortunate to be on a nice   
   hilltop with steeply sloping terrain down 150 feet in nearly all   
   directions but due south. I've had a dozen QTHs in my 45 years on   
   the air and this one is by far the best."   
      
   Rick Radke, W9WS of Balsam Lake, Wisconsin sent in a Field Day   
   report.   
      
   "I did a single op set-up from my 20 foot pontoon boat from the   
   middle of Balsam Lake in N.W. Wisconsin. Running class 1C, W9WS/MM   
   WI. I tried at the starting gun on Saturday but a stiff wind and   
   whitecaps drove me off the lake. It also eliminated erecting a 20   
   meter inverted V, fed with ladder line at 20 feet. A contest   
   operation while tending a boat is almost impossible. Sunday was   
   almost ham heaven. On the water by 8:30 with full Sun, light winds,   
   and excellent propagation. Running a 17 foot whip and tuner against   
   a 8x20 piece of aluminum floating on water was spectacular. 20 was   
   wide-open, but wall to wall stations made contacts difficult. 40 was   
   much better, and made many contacts out 500-700 miles. At 10:00 I   
   switched to 15 and worked anything I could hear, both coasts, and   
   the gulf. Nothing heard on 10 and 6. Had a blast, but still want to   
   try the inverted V."   
      
   David Moore is always on the lookout for interesting articles about   
   our Sun, and sent in this from Australia and New Zealand Science   
   Alert about a new assessment of the solar atmosphere:   
      
   http://sciencealert.com.au/news/20143006-25777-2.html   
      
   Here is a nice comparison of smoothed sunspot cycles:   
      
   http://www.stce.be/newsletter/images/2013/19SolarCycleFC2.png   
      
   Scott Avery, WA6LIE of Salinas, California wrote on July 6, "AFTER   
   Field Day, 6 meters picked up a lot.   
      
   "Have been using JT65 and JT9 to shoot fish in a barrel!   
      
   "Been working a lot of east coast stuff not heard on CW or SSB.   
      
   "As we all know 6 meters is the 'magic band' and one needs to just   
   listen or look at DX spots.   
      
   "We need MORE JT65 and JT9 stations out there for DX and propagation   
   experiments!   
      
   "Download WSJT-X and give it a whirl.   
      
   "http://physics.princeton.edu/pulsar/K1JT/wsjtx.html   
      
   "Hope to see more JT65 activity!"   
      
   Today, Friday July 11 (UTC), Scott added these updates: "6 meter   
   opening to east coast now! Started around 2300z and still going on!   
   6 is HOT!!" (This was sent at 0100z)   
      
   "6 meters wide open to Japan now! Band is nuts! 0500z Japan   
   EVERYWHERE SSB and CW!"   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for July 3 through 9 were 179, 199, 213, 256, 197,   
   209, and 183, with a mean of 205.1. 10.7 cm flux was 178.1, 187.6,   
   193, 201, 197.9, 201.4, and 198.4, with a mean of 193.9. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 6, 5, 4, 5, 6, 6, and 7, with a mean of   
   5.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 6, 5, 6, 5, 8, and 8,   
   with a mean of 6.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   One of the great tragedies of life is the murder of a beautiful theory by a   
   gang of brutal facts. --Benjamin Franklin   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)