SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014   
   ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP14   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14  ARLP014   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  April 4, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP014   
   ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers declined over the past reporting week   
   (March 27 to April 2) from 135.6 to 130.4, compared to the previous   
   seven days. Likewise, average daily solar flux drifted lower, from   
   153.2 to 149.   
      
   The current prediction (from USAF/NOAA on April 3) has solar flux at   
   155 on April 4, 160 on April 5-8, 150 on April 9-10, 140 on April   
   11, 135 on April 12-13, then 140 and 145 on April 14-15, 150 on   
   April 16-18, 155 on April 19-22, 145 on April 23-28, 140 on April 29   
   through May 2, 135 on May 3, and 140 on May 4-8.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 14, 20 and 8 on April 4-6, 5 on April   
   7-16, 8 on April 17-19, 5 on April 20-22, 8 on April 23-26, 5 on   
   April 27 through May 2, then 8 on May 3-4, 5 on May 5, and 8 on May   
   6.   
      
   OK1HH gives us his weekly prediction for geomagnetic conditions, as   
   well as observations about this solar cycle peak.   
      
   Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active April 4,   
   active to disturbed April 5, quiet to unsettled April 6, quiet on   
   April 7, mostly quiet April 8-9, quiet to unsettled April 10-11,   
   quiet on April 12, quiet to unsettled April 13, mostly quiet April   
   14-15, quiet on April 16, quiet to active April 17, mostly quiet   
   April 18-19, quiet to active April 20-21, and back to quiet on April   
   22.   
      
   He expects an increase in solar wind on April 4-5, again on April 8   
   and 11, although less certain, then again on April 13-14, and April   
   20-21. He says the reliability of predictions is temporarily reduced   
   because of significant changes in the configuration of active   
   regions, which is not unusual at the cycle peak.   
      
   OK1HH believes we are experiencing the solar cycle's second maximum   
   at present, probably a bit higher than the primary one, and I agree   
   with him, based on tracking a 3-month moving average of daily   
   sunspot numbers.   
      
   The Australian government's IPS Radio and Space Services issued a   
   geomagnetic disturbance warning at 0445 UTC on April 3:  "Active   
   region 12027 produced a M6.5 X-ray flare with associated CME on 02   
   April. Possible Active to Minor Storm conditions at higher latitudes   
   on 05 April due to CME arrival. INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY   
   EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOR 05 APRIL 2014."   
      
   Randy Crews, W7TJ wrote: "Solar Flux Average for March was   
   approximately 150, down from February's high of 170. Solar flux   
   averaged 155 for the past 5 Months. The bands have not been this   
   good since 2002 - what a difference! 12 meters has been the real   
   surprise, open world wide most days and well into the evening. The   
   original forecast of a peak in late 2013 was correct, however it has   
   now extended into 2014, the second peak being higher than the first   
   peak in November of 2011. We'll take it!"   
      
   Looking at our 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers, I am   
   seeing several peaks, and a recent steady increase. First of all,   
   the average sunspot number for January, February and March 2014 was   
   146.4, the highest since the three months centered on December 2002,   
   which was 151.5.   
      
   I see a 3-month moving average peak of daily sunspot numbers at   
   118.8 and 118.6 centered on October/November 2011, average daily   
   sunspot number for all of 2012 was only 82.3, then we have another   
   3-month moving average peak centered on April/May 2013 at 106.4 for   
   both periods, and since then it has been 97.5, 85.6, 77.4, 91.2,   
   102.9, 123.7, 123.3, 138.5 and 146.4.   
      
   On Saturday, March 29, Spaceweather.com reported that "Sunspot   
   AR2017 in the Sun's northern hemisphere is crackling with M-class   
   solar flares, and it has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors   
   energy for even stronger eruptions. Earth-directed flares are   
   possible this weekend." Then they reported, "AR2017 has just   
   unleashed an X1-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory   
   captured the extreme ultraviolet flash on March 29th at 1752 UTC."   
      
   We heard from Angel Santana, WP3GW of Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico   
   about this event: "I took a break from CQ WPX and was speaking to my   
   mom, when I noticed that the station calling CQ on 10 meters before   
   1800 UTC shut up abruptly and the S-meter went half meter. I looked   
   in awe and when changed bands, heard the same noise, and said to my   
   mom, 'Oh my, the signals fell! Maybe a solar explosion of some   
   sort!' In less than 5 minutes the bands were alive again."   
      
   Interesting, because there wasn't any huge geomagnetic disturbance   
   on March 29, according to   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DGD.txt but apparently this   
   flash of energy from our Sun caused a short lived shortwave   
   blackout. Anyone else notice this?   
      
   Sure enough, the blackout was reported in Africa. Check the site   
   http://newstonight.co.za/content/scientists-witness-powerful-x1-   
   lass-flare-sun spot-ar2017-march-29 .   
      
   CBS News noted it also:   
   http://www.cbsnews.com/news/major-solar-flare-erupts-from-the-sun/ .   
      
   We also received a fascinating and detailed report about the event   
   from Raydel, CM2ESP in Havana, Cuba. Raydel says, "This last   
   Saturday March 29, at 1744 UTC I was at home recording APT satellite   
   imagery from NOAA-19 on 137.1 MHz with a RTL-SDR dongle, a simple   
   QFH antenna and a 25 dB pre-amp.   
      
   "A couple of minutes into the pass I noticed a deep decrease in the   
   satellite signal to noise ratio which degraded the received picture   
   quality.   
      
   "After checking SDR spectrum [a spectrum analyzer, see   
   http://hackaday.com/2013/09/09/an-rtl-sdr-spectrum-analyzer/ - Ed.]   
   I noticed the decrease was due to a high noise and not because the   
   satellite signal was lower. The noise signature didn't show the   
   common details of 60 Hz AC or the impulsive nature of an internal   
   combustion engine. A little bit baffled I just continued and paid no   
   more attention to it.   
      
   "15 minutes later I checked e-mail and to my surprise there was an   
   alert issued by NOAA's SWPC regarding a high X-Ray event! Could the   
   noise on 137.100 MHz be related to it?   
      
   "After checking the X-Ray plot I noticed it was an X1.0 event, a   
   nice and strong one!   
      
   "So, I applied a notch filter to remove the satellite signal from   
   the recorded audio and try to have a more clear idea of the event   
   itself in metric band. Once removed (most of it) the satellite audio   
   from the recording, as the transmission is FM, signal from the   
   satellite should sound as 'quiet' and the solar radio emission   
   should produce an increase in the noise.   
      
   "That's not perfect at all, but it is just a method in order to   
   extract some information from the recording. There was no way to   
   know such event would happen that moment, and it was no more than an   
   amazing coincidence.   
      
   "So, if life gives you lemons, let's make lemonade! OK, So after   
   replaying the filtered audio and with help of Radio SkyPipe, some   
   insights about the event can be seen.   
      
   "Interesting is also that the ionosonde station at Havana, Cuba,   
   which is just a few miles from my home also recorded a huge   
   absorption, that almost 'cleaned' the ionogram. According to NOAA   
   the peak flux at 245 MHz was 110,000 units!"   
      
   Great report from Cuba, and be sure to check the page for CM2ESP on   
   QRZ.com to see more details about his station, including an East   
   German transceiver he salvaged and put on the air.   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK reports that at 1051 UTC on March 30 he made the   
   first long path 6 meter QSO for Cycle 24 from KH6 to Europe. He was   
   running 100 watts to a dipole at 120 feet on the southwest side of   
   Oahu, and worked S57RR in Slovenia. Art, KH6SX made the next long   
   path QSO with S57RR followed by a QSO with Bruno, IS0GQX in   
   Sardinia.   
      
   Kerry Rochester, G8VR reports, "The first G to KH6 via long path   
   (the only path) was 27 March 2000 at 1057 UTC. There were at least   
   two further openings around a year later."   
      
   On March 24 Kerry had written to Jon, noting, "Look out for LP   
   openings to EU over the South Pole. These have happened right at the   
   time you are going. Time frame 1000-1200 UTC. I don't expect it will   
   come as far North as us, but you might get EA."   
      
   We also heard from Fred, KH7Y on March 31: "GM Tad, we had long path   
   last night to Europe on 50 MHz. I worked 19 stations in I, IS, 9A   
   and S57. Signals were strong at times with TEP flutter. At the same   
   time as the long path opening we had KH9, V73, FK8 beacons in plus   
   the BY TV on 49.75 MHz very strong. KH6SX and N0JK/KH6 also made   
   contacts.   
      
   "The opening lasted about 50 minutes, started about 1032 UTC that is   
   1232 HST here."   
      
   Mike Babb, N4PF of Cynthiana, Kentucky wrote about more 10 meter   
   fun: "I'm pretty excited about a QSO I made during the CQ WPX SSB   
   contest this past weekend. On 3/29/2014 at 2043 UTC I worked T32AZ   
   in East Kiribati with my KX3 using only 12 watts into a Carolina   
   Windom. Ken was only about 4x5 with some QSB on my end. He had some   
   difficulty pulling out my call, but we made the contact, and my day!   
   To say 10 meters was hot is an understatement!"   
      
   HC5K reported: "Yesterday for the first time in years we had here in   
   Ecuador a sudden 50 MHz opening at 1800 thru 2100 UTC on   
   south-north-south direction (TEP) with heavy activity toward the   
   southeastern USA.   
      
   "There were two stations locally, HC5CR and myself, HC5K spaced   
   about 15 KHz and we worked about 165 stations and about 65 Grid   
   Locator areas, with average signal levels for HC5CR with his new 6   
   element 6 meter Boom antenna at 25 meters. His rx and tx reports 99   
   percent over S-9 plus. During highest peak he checked with his new   
   13 element, 8 meter boom VHF at 144.300 and 200-250, but no opening   
   occurred. Caribbean stations and Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile and   
   Argentina reported lots of trans-equatorial propagation effects. But   
   nothing here in the equatorial country of Ecuador. My test station   
   is an HF dipole and 50 watts. Receiver levels average S 8-9 all the   
   time."   
      
   At the last minute (1241 UTC Friday) KH7Y reported: "OK Tad just   
   heading off to bed. It is about 2:00 AM. Worked LZ2WO (Bulgaria) and   
   LZ2HM at 1030 UTC long path on 50.090 MHz. CW signals built to 579.   
   No other countries, just LZ. Many of my SV, I, SP and 9A friends   
   were listening, and heard nothing but LZ."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 27 through April 2 were 145, 135, 132,   
   122, 129, 124, and 126, with a mean of 130.4. 10.7 cm flux was   
   144.8, 146.4, 142.7, 148.4, 152.4, 153.3, and 154.7, with a mean of   
   149. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 8, 5, 7, 6, and 5,   
   with a mean of 6.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 9, 9,   
   5, 8, 5, and 6, with a mean of 7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX    
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   One of the great tragedies of life is the murder of a beautiful theory by a   
   gang of brutal facts. --Benjamin Franklin   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)