SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010   
   ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP10   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10  ARLP010   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 7, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP010   
   ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers were up for the recent reporting   
   period (February 27 through March 5) and average daily solar flux   
   decreased slightly, compared to the previous seven days.  Average   
   daily sunspot numbers increased nearly 29 points to 202.4, and   
   average daily solar flux was off a little more than four points to   
   162.9.   
      
   The latest predictions for solar flux over the near term have   
   steadily declined over the past ten days. The predicted average   
   solar flux for the ten day period between March 7-16 was 161.5 in   
   the February 25 forecast, 156 in the March 1 outlook, 138.5 on March   
   3, 135.5 on March 5, and 132 on March 6.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 145 on March 7, 135 and 130 on March 8-9,   
   125 on March 10-11, 130 on March 12, 135 on March 13-14, 130 on   
   March 15-17, 135 on March 18-20, 145 on March 21, 155 on March   
   22-24, and peaking at just 160 on March 25-27. It then declines to a   
   low of 120 on April 11-13.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on March 7, 12 on March 8, 10 on   
   March 9-10, 8 on March 11, and 5 on March 12 through April 4.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH predicts quiet geomagnetic conditions on March 7,   
   mostly quiet March 8-9, quiet to active March 10, quiet to unsettled   
   March 11, mostly quiet March 12, quiet March 13-14, mostly quiet   
   March 15, active to disturbed March 16-17, mostly quiet March 18,   
   active to disturbed March 19, quiet to unsettled March 20-21, quiet   
   to active March 22, quiet March 23-24, quiet to active March 25,   
   quiet March 26, quiet to active March 27, and mostly quiet March 28   
   through April 1.   
      
   NASA has a new prediction for the current solar cycle, slightly   
   revised from a month earlier. The current version updated March 3,   
   2014 is here:   
      
   http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml   
      
   The revision is a smoothed sunspot peak of 69 late last summer   
   (2013) from 67 earlier in the same summer in the report a month   
   earlier. These numbers are only recently known because the smoothed   
   sunspot number uses a whole year of data. If activity continues to   
   increase, then it will drag this smoothed maximum further out,   
   perhaps to early this year. But there definitely is a strong second   
   peak happening now, stronger than the first.   
      
   The average of daily sunspot numbers for February 2014 was the   
   highest of the current solar cycle at 174.6. In fact, the last time   
   it was higher was the month of September 2002, when it was 206.4.   
      
   We've been running our own smoothed 3-month moving average of   
   sunspot numbers, and now that February is over we know the average   
   for the three months centered on January 2014: 138.5.  This is also   
   a high for this solar cycle. You may recall that this cycle seemed   
   to have an earlier peak based on this moving average toward the end   
   of 2011, when the averages centered on September through December   
   2011 were 98.6, 118.8, 118.6 and 110. Compare that to this most   
   recent peak, with these 3 month averages centered on August 2013   
   through January 2014: 77.4, 91.2, 102.9, 123.7, 123.3, and 138.5   
   mentioned earlier.   
      
   Here is an article from a reliable source noting this second peak is   
   larger than the first, and that this slow cycle may have a much   
   broader peak than earlier cycles:   
      
   http://sidc.oma.be/news/240/welcome.html   
      
   We got a late report on 6 meter propagation from Fred Honnold, KH7Y,   
   who is on the south side of Hawaii's big island, which of course, is   
   the island of Hawaii.   
      
   He sent this a week ago, February 28, after this bulletin was put to   
   bed:   
      
   "Good morning from Hawaii. Forgot to send this on Monday to you.   
   Sunday morning (February 23) at about 1830 I worked A45XR and EA8DBM   
   on 6 meters CW. There was a good opening to HK and CE, and at the   
   time my antenna was pointed about 120 degrees. I was calling CQ on   
   50.105, a W4 answered me and also a very weak signal behind the W4.   
   I worked the 4 and kept hearing A so I thought it might be a AC or   
   something like that, but he came out of the noise and it was A45XR   
   (Oman, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf) a rare catch for me. His   
   signals built to 529 on CW and then he asked for SSB and we made the   
   QSO. Chris, A45XR was using a 30 meter delta loop with very high SWR   
   so he could only run 100 watts. About a half hour later was called   
   by EA8DBM with 559 signals looking the same direction. I talked to   
   Jim, K6MIO about the QSOs and he told me they were TPL, transpolar   
   long path. It really did not make much difference where I pointed   
   the antennas, a pair of 8 elements. A45XR was also in Monday the   
   February 24 and was much stronger as he put his 6 meter delta loop   
   up. He also was in Tuesday morning 0830 very weak. Yesterday was a   
   bust on 6 meters one strong DU and two JAs worked on back scatter   
   looking to VK (245 deg)."   
      
   Log into QRZ.com and look at the great location and antennas at   
   KH7Y: http://www.qrz.com/db/KH7Y, and also to   
   http://www.qrz.com/db/A45XR for A45XR and his 30 meter delta loop.   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK notes that on February 27 at 2250 UTC N0LL in EM09   
   spotted KC0CF in EN32, via aurora on 6 meters.   
      
   An article about a solar region circling the Sun three times can be   
   found on the web at:   
      
   http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Coming_Around_Again_Giant_Suns   
   ot_Makes_Third _Trip_Across_the_Sun_999.html .   
      
   The Spring Equinox is only two weeks away!  Hope for continued high   
   solar activity here at the peak of the cycle. Plenty of great 10   
   meter propagation is in store.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for February 27 through March 5 were 227, 279, 177,   
   170, 191, 171, and 202, with a mean of 202.4. 10.7 cm flux was   
   175.7, 170.6, 164.6, 161.3, 161, 158, and 149.1, with a mean of   
   162.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 13, 7, 5, 7, 8, and 7,   
   with a mean of 10.1.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 15, 10,   
   6, 3, 6, 8, and 6, with a mean of 7.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   One of the great tragedies of life is the murder of a beautiful theory by a   
   gang of brutal facts. --Benjamin Franklin   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)