SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052   
   ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP52   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 30, 2010   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP052   
   ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   There were no sunspots for a full week, from December 18-24.   
   Christmas day saw a return to sunspot activity, so the last two of   
   those spotless days were in the Thursday through Wednesday reporting   
   period in this bulletin, December 23-29.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number for this past week rose nearly 15   
   points to 19.7, and average daily solar flux was about the same as   
   last week.  It changed from 80.1 to 80.3.   
      
   The latest forecast from NOAA/USAF shows solar flux for December 31   
   through January 10 at 83, 84, 84, 82, 80, 80, 80, 83, 88, 88 and 88.   
   Predicted planetary A index 5 on December 31 through January 2, 7 on   
   January 3-6, and 5 again on January 7-10.   
      
   Our report from Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet   
   conditions December 31 to January 3, unsettled geomagnetic   
   conditions January 4, quiet to unsettled January 5, and quiet again   
   on January 6.   
      
   Although there are two more days of sunspot and solar flux readings   
   to complete the 2010 data, with 363 data points we can easily   
   calculate the year's averages.   
      
   Yearly averages of daily sunspot numbers for 2004-2010 were, 68.6,   
   48.9, 26.1, 12.8, 4.7, 5.1 and 25.5.   
      
   Yearly averages of daily noon 10.7 cm solar flux readings from   
   Penticton for 2004-2010 were 106.6, 91.9, 79.9, 73.1, 69, 70.6 and   
   80.   
      
   These averages represent a nice increase in solar activity, but they   
   still indicate a weak solar cycle.  We can compare these averages   
   with yearly averages around the end of the previous solar cycle.   
   Cycle 23 probably ended in late 2008, and Cycle 22 ended in   
   mid-1996, so averages based on calendar year are somewhat skewed,   
   whereas counting 365 day periods or perhaps shorter increments after   
   the end of a cycle would not be.   
      
   For 1993-1998, yearly averages of daily sunspot numbers were 79,   
   48.1, 28.7, 13.2, 30.7 and 88.7.  Over the same period the yearly   
   averages of daily solar flux were 109.5, 85.8, 77.1, 72, 81 and   
   117.9.   
      
   But looking over the data at hand, as presented, tells us that the   
   activity at the minima between Cycles 23 and 24 was lower than   
   between 22 and 23, and Cycle 24 still seems to be advancing much   
   more slowly.   
      
   Perhaps at another time we could examine the averages over shorter   
   periods following each minimum.   
      
   Last week's bulletin neglected to mention the propagation column in   
   the January 2011 issue of Worldradio by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.   
   This is available for free online on the 20th day of each month.   
   This time Carl gives a careful analysis of skewed long-path   
   propagation on 40 meter CW between G3WW and YB0AZ, England to   
   Indonesia.  You can find it at http://www.worldradiomagazine.com,   
   and Carl's column runs from pages 38-40.   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK regularly reports on E-skip openings on 6 meters.   
   This time he wrote, "Finally another winter season Es opening.  From   
   Wichita EM17 I worked K4UI EM76 with very loud signals at 0117 UTC   
   December 27.  Also heard a couple of '5s' in EL09 and K5AB/b EM10.   
   Most of it was going overhead as was too close in for most of the   
   Es."   
      
   You can take a look at this opening by querying   
   http://www.vhfdx.info/spots/.  He listed contacts from 0111z-0125z   
   on December 27.  Just leave everything at default, but select 50   
   MHz, Reported from 27 December 2010 at 0110 UTC until 27 December   
   2010 at 0130 UTC, and select the maximum number of returned QSOs at   
   100 or 250.  Click on "Submit Query," and you will see the listing.   
      
   You can also click on the NA Map tab to see a map of the paths   
   reported.  And if you want, you can expand the times in your query   
   to see more than what Jon reported.  Note that if you don't see QSOs   
   listed all the way to the early and late times you've entered,   
   either you have hit the 250 QSO limit, or there were no QSOs   
   reported during that period.  If you hit the limit, then just narrow   
   the time period, and also move the period forward and backward in   
   time to get a full report on 6 meter openings.  Also note that you   
   can restrict the report to paths greater than some arbitrary value.   
      
   Jon also reported working Canada on 6 meter CW on December 28, VE3EN   
   at 0214 UTC and VE2XK at 0309 UTC.  You can do a similar search to   
   examine this opening, too.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 23 through 29 were 0, 0, 28, 28, 14,   
   31, and 37, with a mean of 19.7. 10.7 cm flux was 80.1, 78.6, 79.4,   
   80.5, 80.1, 80.7 and 82.6 with a mean of 80.3. Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 0, 3, 5, 2, 2, 13 and 3 with a mean of 4. Estimated   
   mid-latitude A indices were 1, 3, 4, 2, 1, 8 and 3 with a mean of   
   3.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   ---   
                                   ========   
      
   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
   fidonet echomail without alteration other than the removal of   
   email header and other control information which   
   is not part of the actual publication.   
      
   We invite you to use and support the ham-fdn!   
   The ham-fdn is coordinated by Mark LEwis at fidonet 1:3634/12.  Contact him   
   for further   
   information about ham-fdn file echoes.  Announcements of newly   
   hatched ham-fdn files can be seen in the echoes ham and ham_tech.   
      
   THe ham-fdn is distributed by the International FIlegate project.   
   Ham-fdn file echoes are available from major hubs.  Bbs users with an   
   interest in these file echoes should ask your sysop to carry them.   
      
   Users and sysops with materials appropriate for distribution   
   via the ham-fdn should contact the coordinator for submission   
   guidelines at the above shown address.  IF you have access to   
   shareware programs that would be useful to radio amateurs,   
   or other files which may be appropriate use the back channel   
   area to submit them.  IF you are not sure how to accomplish this   
   contact the fdn coordinator, or ask your local bbs sysop.   
      
      
   ---   
    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)