SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP004   
   ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP04   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4  ARLP004   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 24, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP004   
   ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers increased slightly this week from   
   111.4 to 113.3, but average daily solar flux declined by 22 points   
   from 155.4 to 133.4. Although there seems to be no shortage of   
   sunspots, they are anemic and not magnetically complex, and thus   
   radiation from the spots is feeble, indicated by lower solar flux   
   values.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the near term is 135 on January 24, 130 on   
   January 25-26, 135 on January 27, 140 on January 28-30, 150 on   
   January 31, 155 on February 1-5, 160 on February 6-7, then 150, 140   
   and 135 on February 8-10, 125 on February 11-15, and 130 on February   
   16-20.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 24-26, 8 on January 27,   
   12 on January 28, 5 on January 29 through February 6, 8 on February   
   7-8, 5 on February 9-16, 8 on February 17 and 5 on February 18-23.   
      
   OK1HH sends his latest geomagnetic predictions, which have mostly   
   quiet conditions on January 24, quiet on January 25, mostly quiet   
   January 26, quiet January 27, quiet to active January 28, active to   
   disturbed January 29, quiet to unsettled January 30, mostly quiet   
   January 31, quiet on February 1, quiet to unsettled February 2-3,   
   mostly quiet February 4-6, quiet February 7-9, quiet to unsettled   
   February 10-11, and mostly quiet February 12.   
      
   This weekend is the CQ World Wide 160-Meter CW Contest. It begins   
   today, Friday January 24 at 2200 UTC and ends at 2200 UTC on Sunday,   
   January 26. As there are no geomagnetic disturbances predicted for   
   the weekend, conditions should be good. See   
   http://www.cq160.com/rules.htm for info.   
      
   Jimmy Mahuron, K9JWJ of Salem, Indiana (in southern Indiana, about   
   30 miles NNW of Louisville, Kentucky) noted great 40 meter   
   conditions with strong signals on January 21, and commented on the   
   sunspot number. The sunspot number on January 20-21 was 131 and 141,   
   with solar flux at 137.4 and 146.   
      
   Jeff, N8II sent this report from West Virginia on January 21:   
      
   "I was operating as W1AW/8 from Jan 3-7 here and worked mainly   
   75/80, 30, 15, and 10 meters. There were strong signals on 10   
   meters, but propagation seemed fairly unremarkable for SFIs running   
   over 200. There was not a lot of activity on 10 from the USA in the   
   afternoon and I didn't work that much from Eastern EU on 10 in the   
   mornings. EU was pretty well gone on 10 at 1700Z.   
      
   "Signals from the USA were loud on 15 meter SSB Monday afternoon the   
   January 6 as close as WI and IL with many of the louder ones more   
   than 20 dB over S9. I received several calls from AK and HI with   
   loud signals and then was treated to a JA run which did not last   
   that long starting about 2235Z until QRT at 2305. By my return at   
   2320Z on CW signals were markedly weaker from JA. Earlier on phone   
   the loudest JAs were S9 with weakest ones S3-5, but they all were   
   apparently hearing me quite well. The morning of the January 7 on 15   
   phone, I ran a pretty big raucous EU pile up working as far as UA4s   
   in Russia until about 1430Z.   
      
   "HZ1PS and A71EA called in with good signals with the highlight   
   being called by a VK7 long path! I had never worked eastern   
   Australia on 15 via long path before. But that is pale compared to   
   the Midway Island QSO long path on 10 CW around 1315Z in early   
   December.   
      
   "Conditions were down a bit compared to last year in the NAQP SSB   
   contest this past weekend January 18-19 according to several   
   comments, but I managed 1276 QSOs in about 9 hours with some very   
   good conditions on 20 and 75 meters. After dark, around 2230Z until   
   just past 0100Z, 20 meters was wide open from Texas to the West   
   Coast with loud KL7 and KH6 as well. Around 0430Z, 75 was open well   
   to the West Coast with quite a few CA stations logged which was not   
   possible around 0200Z. I never did work much west of MN, NM and MO   
   on 160, but signals out to about 800-900 miles away were pretty   
   loud. 10 was average with fairly weak signals from the West Coast   
   and loud ones from the Rocky mountain area. 15 was better to the   
   West Coast and stations as close WI, MN, KS, AR and TX were loud.   
   Both 10 and 15 were wide open to AK with little activity and a few   
   KH6's were on both bands with good signals. Near sunset a couple of   
   ZS stations were good copy off the back of the beam on 20 and a UA0Q   
   called in with a S9 signal around 0015Z.   
      
   "On January 16 at 0500, 80 meter CW was wide open to EU with E7, LY,   
   SM, OM, SP, OK, OE, EW, DK, US5, and S5 stations all worked between   
   0500 and 0530Z. Most signals were S9 or better!   
      
   "On January 17 at 0103Z, 9V1YC was 579 long path on 20 CW, later   
   than the usual long path here which peaks 2230-2345Z. Also worked   
   with a strong signal at 0110Z was VK6FZM/MM about halfway around the   
   world from me on their way to Amsterdam Island from Freemantle in   
   VK6.   
      
   "Then in the morning of January 19, the Russian Olympic special   
   stations were worked on 20 and 15. Some on 20 were S9+ while others   
   were weak in the noise. Stations with 22 in their calls honor the   
   Olympics (22nd Olympiad) and 11 the Paralympics. Also worked on 20   
   CW were the wild card stations R7378TM and R7979TM. A65CA was 579   
   long path on 20 at 1401Z and a few western EU stations were also   
   heard long path."   
      
   Amid many news reports with observations about a quieting Sun, we   
   get this from Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI on Costa Rica:   
      
   "A friend of mine in Panama (HP3AK) is quite the 75 meter DX   
   enthusiast, and is up every morning looking for whatever DX he can   
   find in the DX window on that band at gray-line from his QTH in the   
   western Panama highlands. He reports to me that so far, this has   
   been the lousiest DX season he can remember. With his monster   
   high-gain phased delta loop array, he can still manage to work Japan   
   only about every other day, and in past seasons, he'd be talking to   
   his friends there every morning with great signals both ways. He's   
   only worked a couple of new ones in the South Pacific all season.   
      
   "6 meters has been very quiet here lately, too. There hasn't been a   
   really good opening on 6 from down here since the big F2 opening in   
   December - just the odd, short sporadic-E opening now and again.   
   Pickings have been pretty slim other than the usual daily TE   
   (trans-equatorial) openings into Brazil and Argentina from here, and   
   always with the same stations in evidence every day.   
      
   "10 meters is showing some decline here. The reliable, daily   
   openings are still there, but signals are fewer and weaker, with   
   South America beginning to predominate - which leads me to suspect   
   what I am seeing is mostly a TE propagation mode. I've given up on   
   10 and have moved my PSK activity to 15, which has been quite hot -   
   but only early in the morning and late in the afternoon."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 16 through 22 were 77, 95, 114, 91, 131,   
   141, and 144, with a mean of 113.3. 10.7 cm flux was 121, 128.8,   
   129.6, 127.5, 137.4, 146, and 143.3, with a mean of 133.4. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 3, 4, 2, 2, 3, 8, and 9, with a mean of   
   4.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8,   
   with a mean of 3.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   Not only is the Universe stranger than we think, it is stranger than we can   
   think. - Werner Heisenberg   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)