SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052   
   ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP52   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 20, 2013   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP052   
   ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Geomagnetic conditions were more stable than expected last weekend, good news   
   for participants in the ARRL 10 Meter Contest.  The planetary A index on   
   Friday through Sunday was 3, 16 and 7 and mid-latitude A index was just 3, 10   
   and 5.   
      
   Still, there were some scary moments, such as Saturday night in North America   
   (0035 UTC December 15) when the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this   
   alert: "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED   
   WIND STREAM FOR 15 DECEMBER 2013."   
      
   For the reporting week, Thursday through Wednesday, average daily sunspot   
   numbers rose from 122.1 to 134.4, and average solar flux went from 162.4 to   
   159.7, compared to the previous period, December 5-11.   
      
   The latest prediction from USAF and NOAA has solar flux at 155, 150 and 145 on   
   December 20-22, 140 on December 23-24, then 130 and 135 on December 25-26, 160   
   on December 27-28, 165 on December 29-31, 170 on January 1-2, 175 on January   
   3-6, 170 on January 7, then 165 on January 8-10, 160 on January 11 and 150 on   
   January 12-13. Solar flux is expected to decline to a low of 135 on January   
   18-19, then rise to 175 at the end of January.   
      
   This solar flux prediction for the next seven days was revised downward   
   significantly from yesterday's forecast in the ARRL Letter. Wednesday's   
   forecast for December 20-26 was 160, 155, 150, 150, 155, 150 and 155. The   
   latest forecast (Thursday's) shows predicted flux values of 155, 150, 145,   
   140, 140, 130 and 135 for those same seven days. The downward revision was 5   
   points on December 20-22, 10 points on December 23, 15 points on December 24,   
   and 20 points on December 25-26.   
      
   The predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 20-24, 8 on December 25-26,   
   then  10 and 8 on December 27-28, 5 on December 29 through January 2, then 10   
   and 20 on January 3-4, 5 on January 5-9, then 15 and 7 on January 10-11, then   
   5 after that until a more active period around the end of January.   
      
   At http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html you can get a daily   
   update of these forecasts, and lately the new one has been issued between   
   2119-2123 UTC. But the December 11 forecast came out at 0755 UTC on December   
   12, and the December 17 issue at 0051 UTC December 18. In the past (for years   
   now) I don't recall it ever coming out as late as into the next UTC day.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group has a shorter than   
   usual geomagnetic forecast this week, perhaps for 12 days of Christmas. He   
   sees quiet conditions December 20-24, mostly quiet December 25, quiet to   
   unsettled December 26, quiet to active December 27, quiet on December 28,   
   mostly quiet December 29, and quiet again on December 30-31. Not the same   
   twelve days as Christmastide or Twelvetide, which actually extend into   
   January, but I thought it had a nice familiar ring to it.   
      
   Operators in the ARRL 10 Meter contest last weekend probably saw the best   
   conditions for this event in over a decade, and all the reports sound very   
   happy.   
      
   Larry Godek, W0OGH of Gilbert, Arizona did not participate this year, but did   
   tune around and listen. Larry reports, "It was wonderfully busy. Signals all   
   over the place and I'd think there will be a lot of good scores reported. You   
   could sure tell that the band was good because the activity on other bands and   
   modes was waaayyyy down!  I'm really glad that the band was so good for this   
   contest."   
      
   Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia reported: "Conditions in   
   this year's 10 meter contest were overall markedly improved from 2012 when the   
   SFI hovered just under 100. Last year I made less than 10 total European QSOs,   
   this year I worked 150 DLs, 61 Gs (not including the other British countries   
   such as 14 GMs), 58 Is, and 52 Fs.   
      
   "The contest started without me, but at 0140Z there were still some far   
   western USA stations like AZ in and out and some fairly loud deep South   
   Americans in PY, LU, and CX on TE. The SAs were fairly hard to work and one   
   other local agreed. The Geminids provided some good meteor scatter with active   
   periods exceeding one minute and some stations like K0TT in MN and W0AIH in WI   
   audible almost all of the time. Meteor scatter was also worked into most of   
   New England and a few 4s in KY, AL, and GA as well was 0s in MO and IA.   
      
   "The EU opening Saturday beat me out of bed with strong signals from all over   
   EU already in at 1240Z. Russians were not as loud as in Oct and early   
   November, but I managed to log quite a few in all areas of Russian EU   
   including UA4 and even two very western UA9s in the log. Conditions were   
   definitely above seasonal norms and the band stayed open to OK/OM/9A/S5   
   probably at least 90 minutes longer than normal probably due to some EU   
   sporadic-E. Western EU also stayed in much later than normal, truly   
   exceptional. Throughout the contest conditions to the south were very good   
   allowing me to easily work those stations with a Force 12 yagi with 2 el on 10   
   meters. Conditions to CA were poor about 95-98 percent of the time when the   
   band could have been open with best conditions as the band opened and again   
   well past sunset when it closed. Skip was as short as ND/SD/KS/TX with CO and   
   the Rocky mountain states being in the sweet spot for best propagation. AZ was   
   the most active state from here with 73 QSOs, 2nd was TX with 61, most worked   
   on Sunday. My CO contacts outnumbered CA 57 to 53, and UT equaled WA with   
   25.There must have been some destructive solar wind (OH2XX was loud around   
   20Z) with a lack of KL7s and a late JA opening Saturday, but once 10 opened   
   the JAs had fairly good signals and there was an amazingly late secondary   
   opening from about 0110 until past 0130Z when some big guns could still be   
   worked. I heard NH2T calling someone, but only worked JA, UA0, and KL7 to the   
   northwest Saturday evening. Several eastern VKs had good signals and were easy   
   to work thru small pile-ups.   
      
   "Sunday conditions were pretty typical of an average mid winter day with EU   
   opening about 1235Z, but still some Russians were worked with good conditions   
   in the 13Z hour. A VU2 also called on CW with a solid S7 signal. By 1615Z much   
   of EU was gone completely and just after 1700Z only Iberian peninsula stations   
   (EA/CT) were left.   
      
   "Both days the solar activity was high enough to allow many backscatter QSOs   
   out to the edges of the skip zone, but the weak spot was in 5 land. I never   
   worked MS, worked LA only once, and a couple of big gun AR stations were just   
   readable. The best direction was somewhat dependent on where the target   
   station was beaming, but south was the better choice until late in the day   
   when SW and W took over following the Sun. The JAs came in at a normal time   
   around 2230Z with good signals and were fading but workable at 2330Z.   
      
   "Other than almost no sporadic-E and the frustration of missing many west   
   coast stations, conditions could not have been much better. The highest   
   scoring multi-op stations in the USA made over 3000 QSOs and D4C had over 4600   
   with about 3 hours to go. Next year will probably be way down from this 2nd   
   peak of the cycle, but this current upsurge was poorly predicted, so we will   
   have to wait and see."   
      
   Dan Bates, N5TM of Katy, Texas reported, "Yes, 10 meters was insane. Friday   
   night was strange with band open until late after dark and short hops into   
   Colorado and Nebraska. EU was open early both mornings with strong stations.   
   Good openings the rest of the day to SA and PNW.   
      
   "I could hardly find a clear spot to CQ. Settled in on 28.158 and had nice   
   runs."   
      
   Dan Eskenazi, K7SS of Seattle, Washington reported: "It was really good! Super   
   fun."   
      
   Howard Lester, N7SO of Schuylerville, New York commented, "I had a lot of fun   
   in the 10 meter contest. With the solar flux as high as it was, in just maybe   
   three hours over the course of the two days I worked 27 countries, trying for   
   one of each. Most were in Europe and South America. My antenna is a 140 foot   
   long inverted-V, so who knows what directions it favors. The highlight was   
   working club station WY7SS in the little town of Sundance, Wyoming where, in   
   1969 during a cross-country trip, I stayed overnight and, at the local gift   
   shop, bought a leather belt with a longhorn buckle, and an agate ring. I wish   
   I still had them."   
      
   With an identical call sign suffix, Fred Glenn, K9SO of Palatine, Illinois   
   reported, "I only worked CW, but it was one of the best 'target rich'   
   environments I've ever experienced on 10m. Reminded me of a busy Field Day on   
   40 meters with signals all across the band at maximum density. Both days saw   
   great conditions into Europe and Northern Africa in the mid morning fading to   
   primarily domestic NA and Caribbean by mid day and early afternoon. Later, we   
   had big signals from some of the big guns in ZL and VK land, and also from   
   Hawaii. Not much participation from those areas, at least on CW, so the QSO   
   point counts contributed from there were low. Virtually nothing heard from   
   Japan or South Africa on either day.   
      
   "I had put up a temporary dipole just for this event and was rewarded with 35   
   new band-countries and a 37 state count with about 7 hours of 'point and   
   shoot' operating.   
      
   "Long live the twin peaks!"   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the   
   author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://   
   rrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 12 through 18 were 156, 141, 163, 158, 114, 91,   
   and 118, with a mean of 134.4. 10.7 cm flux was 164.8, 163.1, 164.2, 156.2,   
   154.3, 159, and 156, with a mean of 159.7. Estimated planetary A indices were   
   3, 3, 16, 7, 7, 3, and 4, with a mean of 6.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices   
   were 2, 3, 10, 5, 5, 3, and 3, with a mean of 4.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   Not only is the Universe stranger than we think, it is stranger than we can   
   think. - Werner Heisenberg   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)