SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050   
   ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP50   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50  ARLP050   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 17, 2010   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP050   
   ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers for this week declined over seven   
   points to 27.6 from the previous week, December 2-8.  Solar flux was   
   about the same as last week, the average up less than a point.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index for the next ten days, December 17-26 is   
   5, 8, 8, 5, 5, 8, 5, 5, 7 and 5.  Solar flux for the same days is   
   predicted at 82, 80, 80, 78, 78, 78, 78, 78, 88 and 88.  Flux values   
   are expected to rise to 90 by December 29 through January 1.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions   
   for December 17, unsettled December 18-19, quiet to unsettled   
   December 20, and quiet December 21-23.   
      
   A week ago two sunspot groups were visible, 1131 and 1133.  The last   
   day 1131 could be seen was December 14, after which it rotated out   
   of view.  It first appeared on December 2, and was a big sunspot   
   group.  Comparable sized groups were 1108 on September 16-28, 1109   
   on September 21 to October 4, and 1117 on October 19 through   
   November 1.  All other recent groups have been much smaller.   
      
   Sunspot group 1133 is rotating out of view, visible for 13 days   
   after arrival on December 4.  The sun would be spotless, but a new   
   sunspot group 1135 emerged on Thursday, December 16, when the daily   
   sunspot number rose from 11 (the minimum non-zero value, on   
   Wednesday) to 23.   
      
   John Kountz, WO1S of Laguna Beach, California (also T6EE when he was   
   in Kabul) sent some info on a new piece of free software from NASA   
   called "JHelioviewer."  You can get more info at   
   http://jhelioviewer.org on this visualization software for examining   
   images from the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO).  John and I have   
   both installed this software, but haven't yet figured out where to   
   get the SDO data.  With it, we should be able to examine any images   
   from the SDO project, which was launched on February 11, 2010.  For   
   instance, it might be interesting to look at images of sunspot group   
   1108 by grabbing images of the Sun from September 16-28.   
      
   There is an online version of the program at   
   http://www.helioviewer.org.  You can enter a date, then choose an   
   interval in the Time-Step field.  Setting it to 12 Hours and   
   clicking on the arrow to the right of that field gives a nice   
   twice-per-day solar image that shows emergence of activity and   
   tracks it across the earth-facing side of the sun.   
      
   Go to http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DSD.txt to look   
   at quarterly sunspot data, and pick a period with high sunspot   
   numbers.  For instance, stepping through 12 hour increments   
   beginning October 16 shows quite a lot of interesting activity. Take   
   the interval down to 15 minute increments, and you can examine a   
   great deal of detail as prominences emerge and decay.   
      
   Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI and several other readers sent references   
   to an article at   
   http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101213154631.htm about   
   a solar event on August 1, and how it was observed by the SDO and   
   STEREO projects.  At   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2010Q3_DGD.txt   
   you can see the resulting A and K indices several days later.  While   
   this was a fairly large event, what made it so interesting this time   
   were all the instruments in place for observing it.   
      
   Pete Heins, N6ZE of Thousand Oaks, California is in grid square   
   DM04ne where he operates 6 meters.  He didn't say if he was using   
   SSB or CW, but on December 14 for about 90 minutes he worked quite a   
   bit of E-skip.   
      
   He first heard K0GU (DN70) at 0250z while mobile.  A visit to   
   http://www.qrz.com/db/k0gu shows us an image of the impressive   
   antenna array that K0GU was probably using when Pete heard him.  No   
   doubt hearing E-skip sent Pete home, where 9 minutes later at 0259z   
   he worked W7GNE (DM43), then W0GMO (DN70) at 0306z, AB7OI (DN41) at   
   0413z, WA7YAZ (DN40) at 0422z, and NJ7A (DN30) at 0437z. Arizona,   
   Colorado and Utah. Not bad!   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 9 through 15 were 22, 33, 25, 23, 46,   
   33, and 11, with a mean of 27.6. 10.7 cm flux was 86.8, 88.4, 86.9,   
   89.4, 87.7, 90.3 and 86.9 with a mean of 88.1. Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 2, 0, 1, 4, 5, 11 and 9 with a mean of 4.6. Estimated   
   mid-latitude A indices were 0, 0, 1, 3, 5, 10 and 8 with a mean of   
   3.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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