SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP012   
   ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP12   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 12  ARLP012   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 21, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP012   
   ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers decreased from 138.7 to 129 on March   
   13-19, compared to the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux   
   went from 149.7 to 141.4.   
      
   The latest 45 day forecast shows solar flux at 150 on March 21-22,   
   145 on March 23, 140 on March 24-26, then 135, 145 and 160 on March   
   27-29, 165 on March 30-31, 160 on April 1-2, 155 on April 3, 150 on   
   April 4-7, 145 on April 8-9, 140 on April 10-11, and 135 on April   
   12-16. This (135) represents a low for the short term, then the   
   forecast shows a rise to 165 on April 26-27.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on March 21-22, 8 on March 23-24, 5   
   on March 25-29, 8 on March 30 through April 1, 5 on April 2-8, 10 on   
   April 9, 5 on April 10-12, 8 on April 13-14, 5 on April 15-25, and 8   
   on April 26-28, followed by 5 during the foreseeable future.   
   Predicted values out that far are likely to change over the next 30   
   days.   
      
   The entire 45-day flux forecast took a big jump on March 17. On   
   March 16 the average solar flux for April was predicted to be 122.3.   
   On March 17 and every day since the average solar flux for April is   
   predicted to be 149.8, an increase of over 22 percent. Check the   
   recent history of these changes along with daily updates at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html . You will find   
   new daily updates usually between 2100-2300 UTC.   
      
   I noticed something odd with the geomagnetic data reported every   
   three hours at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DGD.txt . When   
   I checked this link at 0831 UTC on March 20, the mid-latitude A   
   index for March 15-19 was 26, 11, 5, 10 and 11. But when I checked   
   the same link 24 hours later, the same values were 3, 1, 2, 5, and   
   2.   
      
   What caught my attention on March 20 was the March 15 mid-latitude A   
   index of 26, while the same date showed a planetary A index of 4,   
   and college A index (in Alaska) at 2. This seemed odd, because   
   during periods of moderate or high geomagnetic activity, the   
   mid-latitude value measured in Virginia is the lowest, followed by   
   the planetary A index at a higher value, and the college A index as   
   the highest. This is because the college A index is measured near   
   Fairbanks, Alaska, where the polar region sees a concentration of   
   geomagnetic unrest during any disturbance.   
      
   The planetary A index is calculated using data from observatories at   
   Sitka, Alaska (57.0576 degrees north latitude); Meanook, Alberta,   
   Canada (at 54.616 degrees north latitude); Ottawa, Canada;   
   Fredericksburg, Virginia; Hartland, UK; Wingst, Germany; Niemegk,   
   Germany; and Canberra, Australia. Note that the mid-latitude   
   Fredericksburg data is also a component of the planetary index.   
      
   These magnetic observatories are often in little shacks out in   
   remote areas. See   
   http://geomag.usgs.gov/monitoring/observatories/sitka/#photos ,   
   http://geomag.nrcan.gc.ca/obs/mea-eng.php ,   
   http://www.intermagnet.org/imos/imos-list/imos-details-eng.php?iaga_code=AAE   
   ,   
   http://www.intermagnet.org/imos/imos-list/imos-details-eng.php?iaga_code=ASC   
   ,   
   http://www.intermagnet.org/imos/imos-list/imos-details-eng.php?iaga_code=AQU   
   , http://geomag.usgs.gov/monitoring/observatories/fresno/#photos and   
   http://www.intermagnet.org/imos/imos-list/imos-details-eng.php?iaga_code=KOU   
   and   
   http://www.intermagnet.org/imos/imos-list/imos-details-eng.php?iaga_code=KDU   
   .   
      
   The daily geomagnetic A index for each day is calculated from the K   
   index, measured every three hours. See   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html for more info on the   
   planetary values.   
      
   This week's geomagnetic forecast from OK1HH, who has been   
   distributing these predictions since 1978: The geomagnetic field   
   will be quiet to unsettled on March 21, quiet to active on March 22,   
   quiet to unsettled March 23, quiet March 24, quiet to active March   
   25, quiet to unsettled March 26-27, mostly quiet March 28, quiet   
   March 29, mostly quiet March 30, quiet to active March 31, mostly   
   quiet April 1, quiet for a whole week on April 2-8, mostly quite   
   April 9, active to disturbed April 10, quiet to unsettled April 11,   
   quiet April 12, mostly quiet April 13, quiet to active April 14, and   
   quiet again on April 15-16.   
      
   Hey, the first day of Spring was yesterday, March 20! With solar   
   radiation equally distributed between the northern and southern   
   hemispheres, we are in an ideal time for HF propagation. Not only   
   that, but we are at the peak of the current solar cycle. This is   
   about as good as it gets, at least for the next decade or so.   
      
   Several readers (thanks to M0VNG in Worcester, England, N1IN,   
   KA7RJO, and several others) sent in news reports on the monster   
   solar flare of July 2012, which was aimed squarely at our Earth's   
   orbital path. Fortunately, our planet would not be in position to   
   receive the disturbance for a week (or perhaps nine days earlier was   
   the disaster point, according to some sources) and we missed another   
   Carrington event, like the one in the 19th century which set   
   telegraph offices on fire. Read about it at   
   http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/19/ and   
   http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140318/ncomms4481/full/ncomms4481.html   
   and   
   http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2014/03/18/fierce-solar-magnetic-   
   torm-barely-mi ssed-earth-in-2012/   
   .   
      
   I am not an alarmist, but if that solar blast had struck Earth in   
   the most geoeffective position in 2012, I am convinced that the   
   result would have been a major collapse of civilization worldwide,   
   just from effects on the power grid, let alone everything else. And   
   without power or internet access for an extended period, I would not   
   even be able to report it, and I don't know if I would even realize   
   what had happened.   
      
   Here is another article about the event, this time from National   
   Geographic: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/ .   
      
   A few days ago we had this interesting report and cautionary tale   
   from Peter Gambee, K6TTD of Sacramento, California. This is from his   
   March 17 email: "Before anybody spots this in your next report ... I   
   have a small correction to make.   
      
   "My 'AD8J/YA (Afghanistan)' wasn't exactly what I thought it was.   
   One of the members of the NCDXC caught my reference to this QSO on   
   the club list serve and dropped me a line. It was really AD8J/YAN,   
   operating in the N.C. QSO Party.   
      
   "The spotting networks were showing it as 'Afghanistan,' and that is   
   the way it came up in my logger. Thought that one was a little too   
   easy - I got him on first call, which should've been a tip-off. But   
   it did feel awesome right up to the point reality hit.   
      
   "I still made my 100th confirmed on LoTW - earned DXCC - and a   
   snagged some entities that I thought would take years to get, all in   
   the span of about ten days. I can live with that and be happy."   
      
   Earlier, he sent this email:   
      
   "I thought I might be sticking my neck out a few months ago when I   
   predicted that I could get to DXCC before the end of Cycle 24.   
   Frankly, thought I was inviting the solar 'gods' to smite me. But,   
   just as the solar flux was beginning to trail off it happened: This   
   afternoon, my DXCC count on LoTW crested the 100 mark, and a new   
   check box popped up on my LoTW application page: 'Send Certificate.'   
      
   "Not to hold everybody in suspense, but I put a check mark in the   
   box and hit 'send' at about the speed of light.   
      
   "The second peak of Cycle 24 has been VERY good to me. I went from   
   about 20 confirmed DXCC to well over 100 in the span of about six   
   months. The last few weeks included some huge (and for me, extremely   
   elusive) 'ATNO' QSOs, including VU2GSM (India), TA3X (Turkey), 4Z4DX   
   (Israel), AD8J/YA (Afghanistan), 9J2T (Zambia), 4S7FRG (Sri Lanka).   
   Most of these came within the last week, and only one, 4Z4DX,   
   counted toward my 100 confirmed LoTW QSOs (actually, his   
   confirmation was the one that just put me over the top.) The 9J2T   
   QSL is ordered and 'in the mail.'   
      
   "My logging software shows that I have 114 DXCC confirmed, and over   
   180 worked, so I have a pretty good pile of cards to get out. I hate   
   paperwork with a passion, but I REALLY want some of these cards and   
   wouldn't mind being on the path to DXCC Honor Roll so it's time to   
   get down to stuffing, sealing, stamping, sorting ... Why can't more   
   DX be on LoTW? After the luck I've had this cycle, I really can't   
   complain all that much.   
      
   "What a blast!   
      
   "I do have some thanks to put out there ... To Sol, who seemed to   
   kick things up a notch just when most of the 'experts' were   
   predicting a Maunder Minimum; to VE3NEA, the author of 'CW Skimmer,'   
   whose genius software made the ugliest pileups extremely workable;   
   to the geniuses at Elecraft for designing one of the best receivers   
   on the market available to mere mortals; to the good people at ARRL   
   and LoTW, who made the process of getting confirmations for my first   
   100 DXCC an absolute breeze -- and last, but not least, to my loving   
   wife and children who have shown extreme patience in the face of my   
   growing obsession/mania ... Thank you!! I couldn't have done it   
   without you!   
      
   "Now, gotta run. I'm off to the Post Office."   
      
   Regarding solar flares, we got this from George Hall, N2CG of Saddle   
   Brook, New Jersey:   
      
   "I remember the X15 Solar Flare of March 1989 like it happened   
   yesterday.   
      
   "On Monday morning March 6 around 7 AM EST/1200 UTC I was monitoring   
   The BBC World Service on or near 10.120 MHz. This was back when we   
   shared the 30m band with a few shortwave broadcast stations in   
   addition to military and utility stations that we still share the   
   band with today.   
      
   "The BBC came in every morning on 10.120 MHz like gang busters with   
   a solid S9+40 over signal. Around 7:15 AM I left the shack to have   
   breakfast and do some chores. When I returned to the shack around an   
   hour later I turned on my transceiver (it was still tuned to the BBC   
   station) and all I heard was noise. I then tuned around the band and   
   still heard nothing but inherent receiver noise. I changed bands and   
   antennas and attempted to monitor various frequencies that should   
   have been full of stations but all I found was no radio signals at   
   all! It sounded like I forgot to connect the antenna to the receiver   
   jack.   
      
   "I called (on the telephone) Ralph W2GKG (now SK) a local ham friend   
   who had been a ham and professional radio and TV broadcast engineer   
   for over 40+ years to tell him of my HF dead bands experience. He   
   said he also experienced the same conditions at his station and said   
   we probably are experiencing HF Radio Blackout which is caused by a   
   major solar flair.  Sure enough, that is exactly what it was and a   
   few hours later the breaking news of the day being broadcast on   
   radio and TV was the major solar flare that occurred and how it   
   could negatively affect us on earth like power grid outages and   
   damaging satellites in space with excessive radiation.   
      
   "Since 1989 we've had quite a few solar flares but none that created   
   such a severe and long lasting (If I remember correctly I did not   
   hear radio HF signals until late afternoon that day) HF Radio   
   Blackout conditions."   
      
   Now instead of solar flares, some 10 meter reports.   
      
   First from Dean Lewis, W9WGV of Palatine, Illinois.   
      
   "As I'm sure you're hearing from everyone else, 10M propagation for   
   the Russian DX Contest last weekend was amazing.   
      
   "Due to family obligations, I didn't have much air time, but beat my   
   previous best DX by 1,000 miles, working VK6AA on the northwest   
   coast of (Western) Australia: direct path 10,000 miles. He was   
   'running' fast, but heard me on the first call; no fills, no   
   repeats. His signal was down near the noise, and I'm sure mine was   
   no better. My station is the most 'modest' I've heard of: an IC-703   
   (10 watts max) into an end-fed 40 meter half-wave wire resonant on   
   10, 15, 20, and 40 meters, indoors along the upstairs ceiling (local   
   CC&Rs), running CW-only."   
      
   And from Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas.   
      
   "10 meters continued to have enhanced conditions to the Far East as   
   the equinox approached.   
      
   "On March 19 UTC logged Charlie, VR2XMT, Faij, 9W6ZIM both on SSB   
   and HL2DC CW. Heard but no QSO with XZ1N.   
      
   "On March 20 UTC BD4TS and JA9SJI on SSB. All from mobile station.   
      
   "Very pleased to work VR2XMT. Back in November, 2001 I worked VR2XMT   
   from HC8N on 6 meters."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 13 through 19 were 130, 121, 141, 139,   
   110, 125, and 137, with a mean of 129. 10.7 cm flux was 147.7,   
   143.8, 139, 135.6, 136.4, 138.3, and 149.2, with a mean of 141.4.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 4, 3, 3, 6, and 5, with a   
   mean of 5.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 5, 3, 1, 2, 5,   
   and 2, with a mean of 3.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX    
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   One of the great tragedies of life is the murder of a beautiful theory by a   
   gang of brutal facts. --Benjamin Franklin   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)