SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011   
   ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP11   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11  ARLP011   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 14, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP011   
   ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   This week saw sunspot numbers and solar flux decline. Average daily   
   sunspot numbers declined from 199.3 to 138.7, while solar flux   
   dropped from 162.9 to 149.7.   
      
   Sharp eyed readers may notice that we reported average daily sunspot   
   numbers last week at 202.4, not 199.3, but we just noticed a   
   discrepancy between what last week's bulletin reported for March 4-5   
   and what we see now from NOAA. I don't know if NOAA revised the   
   sunspot numbers for those days, or we just made a mistake, but   
   instead of sunspot numbers of 171 and 202 on March 4-5, they were   
   actually 160 and 191. This brings the average sunspot number for   
   that week down from 202.4 to 199.3   
      
   Also in question is the mid-latitude A index on March 12, reported   
   as 3. I totally made that number up, guessing because something   
   interfered with collection of data from the Fredericksburg, Virginia   
   station from around 1500 UTC on March 12 until 2100 UTC on March 13.   
   The first four K index readings on March 12 came in at 2, 0, 1 and 2   
   and the last three readings on March 13 at 2, 0 and 3. The A index   
   for the day is calculated from the eight K index measurements.   
      
   The most recent prediction has solar flux at 145 on March 14-15, 140   
   on March 16-20, 135 on March 21-22, then 145, 150 and 145 on March   
   23-25, 140 on March 26-27, 135 on March 28-29, then 130, 125 and 120   
   on March 30 through April 1, 115 on April 2-4, and 110 on April 5-7.   
   Flux values would then rise to a high of 140 on April 20, which is   
   not very high, but that is a long way out, more than seven weeks   
   away.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on March 14-16, 8 on March 17-18, 5   
   on March 19-29, 8 on March 30 through April 1, 5 on April 2-5, and   
   then 12, 10 and 8 on April 6-8, then back to 5 again until April 26.   
      
   OK1HH sends us his weekly geomagnetic forecast from the Czech   
   Republic, on behalf of the Czech Propagation Interest Group. He and   
   OK1MGW began doing these in 1978. The geomagnetic field will be   
   quiet to unsettled March 14-15, mostly quiet March 16-17, quiet to   
   active March 18-19, active to disturbed March 20, quiet to active   
   March 21, quiet to unsettled March 22, quiet March 23-24, quiet to   
   active March 25, quiet March 26, quiet to active March 27, mostly   
   quiet March 28-31, quiet April 1-2, quiet to unsettled April 3,   
   active to disturbed April 4, and quiet to active April 5.   
      
   Space.com has an interesting article about a great geomagnetic   
   disturbance and aurora 25 years ago in March, 1989. Read it at   
   http://www.space.com/24983-auroras-1989-great-solar-storm.html and   
   click on the photos. I noticed in the third photo there seems to be   
   an HF dipole in the picture, and part of an HF Yagi element in the   
   fifth image. These are credited to Ken Spencer of Sea Cliff, New   
   York, and sure enough, 25 years later there is still a Kenneth   
   Spencer in Sea Cliff, N2AQQ.   
      
   Fred Glen, K9SO of Palatine, Illinois wrote about what happened on   
   March 8, from 0130-0230 UTC: "It's a very rare event for me to work   
   a new country these days after I passed the 250 country mark but   
   something very unusual happened tonight on 10 and 12 meters. In a   
   one-hour period I nabbed 4 all-time new countries on CW: China, Hong   
   Kong, Brunei, and Taiwan.  Maybe not all that rare, but they are   
   when you don't have them in the log. That part of the world has   
   always been a black hole for me usually losing to west coast   
   stations. I also worked into South Korea and Singapore. Signals were   
   very weak, but workable on my dipole up 35 feet.  What a night. Can   
   we expect more?"   
      
   John Boudreau, VE8EV of Inuvik, about 124 miles north of the Arctic   
   Circle in Canada's Northwest Territories writes about some amazing   
   conditions way up north.   
      
   "The bulletin last week didn't even begin to hint at the outstanding   
   high band propagation we've been having from the Western Arctic.   
   After the X-class flare on Feb 27 the HF bands were completely dead   
   here from top to bottom for several days, but began to pick up   
   during the ARRL DX Contest. For a week afterwards the propagation   
   has been the best I have ever seen from our far Northern location.   
      
   The "three anchors" of low auroral activity, low D-region   
   absorption, and very high solar flux rarely appear at the same time   
   on the propagation slot machine of auroral zone HF. Ten meters has   
   been open around the clock for days now. Strong signals from North   
   and South America during the daytime, Asia in the evenings, and then   
   to Europe and Africa from local midnight right through until   
   morning. I've surprised many European stations that were not   
   expecting to hear signals from North America at those hours. Best DX   
   was ZS8C, 11000 miles away on Marion Island at 7:30 AM my local   
   time. Conditions like this sure make up for the many days we spend   
   vainly trying to get out from under the aurora here."   
      
   Thanks, John. What a great report.   
      
   On March 9, Jon Jones, N0JK sent this: "I usually don't operate much   
   on HF, preferring 6 meters.  But I went out this evening mobile   
   after seeing lots of DX spotted. Mobile set up is FT-897, Radio   
   Shack stock CB mag-mount whip and an MFJ tuner to get the SWR down   
   enough to get some RF into it.   
      
   10 meters was very good this evening.   
      
   I worked BG3UPA in Taiyuan, Shanxi, China on 10 CW at 2359 UTC   
   March-9-2014. I recorded him on my cell phone - very loud at times.   
   Took a few calls but did it.   
      
   It is the first time I have contacted an amateur radio station in   
   China. He is over 11,000 km from Kansas. Also heard but didn't work   
   Charlie, VR2XMT. I worked Charlie on 6 meters from HC8N back in   
   2001. Other DX heard on 10 were JT1, HS0, and V85.   
      
   I think the recent high solar flux and low K index have been   
   favorable for these paths on 10 meters."   
      
   Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote: "It has   
   been quite a couple of weeks since the major flare on Feb 27-28 just   
   prior to the ARRL DX contest.   
      
   Ten meters has been the best band into SE Asia (due north from here)   
   from around 2300Z until about 0100Z with the best example being   
   G6PZ/MM in the Gulf of Thailand a solid S5 on 10 meter CW at 0048Z   
   on the 9th. Openings to Mongolia on 10 are quite rare here, but the   
   band was open 3-4 days in a row with JT1AA/3 logged at a solid S9 at   
   0110Z on the 8th. JT1BV was heard the day before on both phone and   
   CW about S6-7 at best, but the pile ups were too big to get through.   
   On the 9th, JT1AA/3 was again loud and on the 10th he was about S3.   
      
   These are some of the best conditions to East Asia I can ever   
   remember on 10, but I am fairly certain it was as good or better   
   near the peak of the last cycle when I was focused on 6 and 12   
   meters. The solar flux has been running from the 140's to 160's with   
   seemingly little difference in conditions between the low and high   
   and K indices have been mostly 0-1. I can usually at least hear   
   almost every station spotted on 10, but not hear nearly as well on   
   12 or 15 meters where some rare DX has also been worked.   
      
   Some of the highlights are hearing Christmas Island VK9X/K7CO in   
   both the morning and evening on 15 and 10 with our mornings being   
   better on 15 and logging them on both 10 meter phone and CW (0108Z)   
   as well as QRP running 5W on 15 phone at 1634 on March 7. I have   
   heard/worked day after day around 1300-1400Z on 12 and 10 meters.   
   VU2XO makes daily appearances on 10 phone about S9 on better days   
   and almost daily also hearing Datta, VU2DSI on 10 meters. Kazakhstan   
   has been very active with the KEDR suffix stations commemorating   
   Yuri Gagarin's eightieth birthday. There are some big signals out of   
   there for sure, with almost all of the UP prefix/KEDR numbers being   
   logged on mostly 15, 12, and 10 meters. ZS8C on Marion Island was   
   logged on 10 meter phone at 1453Z on the March 5. Countless times he   
   has been spotted on 15 phone with no signal here. On 10 in the   
   evening zone 18 Russians have been logged (rare from here) as well   
   as many in zone 19, many Chinese, VR2UW, 9L1A, BV1EK (also on 12   
   meters), BV8SG, 9V1, V85NL, and several DS/HL stations. In the   
   mornings on 10, several UN/UP's, zone 17/18 from Russia, 9M2IDJ were   
   logged. Also on 15 phone at 1300Z, VK6NTE was worked peaking at   
   about 350 degrees rather than the true heading of about 315.  The   
   seasonal shift to more daylight over the North Pole has really been   
   felt in late February and early March."   
      
   Ron Freeman, W0YF of Omaha, Nebraska wrote on March 13: "The past   
   few days have been really wild on 10 meter JT-65HF. Sunday through   
   Wednesday were wide open. It was neat to follow the sun as I worked   
   Russia, Turkey, Finland, and then Greenland. On to North and South   
   America and then to VK and ZL and JA lands with even a couple of   
   Chinese stations. Finally and all in one operating session, I was   
   back to RW0CD via long path. It's now Thursday and things have   
   cooled off a bit, but I'm still seeing Russia, Mexico and Belgium.   
      
   The rig here is a FT-950 at 25 watts and a modest Hustler 4BTV (4   
   band, trapped vertical) disguised as a flag pole, due to HOA   
   restrictions. Operating system is Debian Linux."   
      
   That's cool. For more information on the JT-65HF mode, go to the   
   ARRL website at www.arrl.org/ and in the website search box on the   
   upper right, search for "jt65".   
      
   Note the spring equinox will be here in just a few days. The first   
   day of spring is Thursday, March 20, and the equinox occurs at 1657   
   UTC. Both the southern and northern hemispheres will be bathed in   
   equal measures of solar radiation. The equinox is a great time for   
   HF propagation.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 6 through 12 were 174, 161, 138, 123, 122,   
   108, and 145, with a mean of 138.7. 10.7 cm flux was 148.8, 148.2,   
   141.6, 145.9, 151.5, 164.6, and 147.6, with a mean of 149.7.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 4, 3, 6, 4, and 6, with a   
   mean of 4.7.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 5, 2, 4,   
   4, and 3, with a mean of 3.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   One of the great tragedies of life is the murder of a beautiful theory by a   
   gang of brutal facts. --Benjamin Franklin   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)