SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007   
   ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP07   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7  ARLP007   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 14, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP007   
   ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   There seemed to be a disconnect between daily sunspot numbers and   
   solar flux over the past reporting week (February 6-12), with the   
   average daily sunspot number rising 28 points to 184.3, and average   
   daily solar flux declining 8.5 points to 171.9. Perhaps this   
   reflects the general weakness in the energy and magnetic complexity   
   of recent sunspots. Many days we see a substantial number of   
   sunspots, but they don't produce much activity.   
      
   We did see unsettled geomagnetic conditions though on February 8   
   when the planetary A index reached 23, caused by a CME the day   
   before.   
      
   At 2351 UTC on February 12, the Australian Space Forecast Centre   
   released this geomagnetic warning: "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY   
   EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 13-15 FEBRUARY 2014."   
   They predict a minor geomagnetic storm on Saturday, February 15. Too   
   bad that is the first day of the ARRL International CW DX Contest.   
      
   The latest forecast from NOAA/USAF has planetary A index at 25 on   
   February 14, 40 on February 15, 18 on February 16, 12 on February   
   17, 5 on February 18-24, 8 on February 25, 5 on February 26 through   
   March 1, 12 on March 2, 5 on March 3-6, and 8 on March 7-9, before   
   dropping back to 5 until March 16, when it rises to 8 on March   
   17-18.   
      
   Predicted solar flux values are 165 on February 14, 160 on February   
   15-17, then 155, 145 and 140 on February 18-20, 145 on February   
   20-21, then 150, 160, 170, 180, 185, 190 and 200 on February 23   
   through March 1, then 195, 200, 205 and 210 on March 2-5, before   
   declining to a low of 130 on March 14, then rising to 200 on March   
   28.   
      
   OK1HH sees quiet to active geomagnetic conditions February 14,   
   active to disturbed February 15, quiet to unsettled February 16-18,   
   quiet February 19-20, quiet to unsettled February 21, quiet February   
   22, quiet to unsettled February 23, mostly quiet February 24, quiet   
   to active February 25, mostly quiet February 26, quiet February 27   
   through March 1, mostly quiet March 2, quiet to unsettled March 3,   
   quiet March 4-6, mostly quiet March 7, quiet to unsettled March   
   8-10, mostly quiet March 11, and quiet on March 12.   
      
   Lew Wallach, N9WL in New Mexico sent a question about the numbers in   
   parenthesis after the predicted value in smoothed sunspot number   
   predictions. His example was from   
   ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/space-weather/solar-data/solar-indic   
   s/sunspot-numb ers/table_international-sunspot-numbers_monthly-predicted.txt   
   .   
   > poster's note: short URL -> http://tinyurl.com/l64nkhh    
      
   The one I am accustomed to seeing is the prediction in the Weekly   
   Preliminary Report and Forecast, such as the one on page 21 of a   
   recent issue at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf2005.pdf.   
      
   The numbers in parenthesis represent uncertainty, or the range of   
   the prediction. Since these are numbers smoothed from data over a   
   year, the numbers for July 2013 and earlier are known, so there is   
   no uncertainty. The predicted value for August 2013 of 68 has a one   
   in the parenthesis, so it could be from 67-69. There is very little   
   uncertainty, because there is only one month of data that would   
   figure into the smoothed value that is unknown at the time of   
   publication, presumably February 2014. As months progress, the   
   uncertainly becomes larger. You can see that with the prediction   
   method used in the Weekly report, the maximum range is plus or minus   
   ten. The forecast method used here is a combination of several   
   methods, decided on by the Cycle 24 Prediction Panel.   
      
   The results are the same as in the table at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt but resolved to   
   whole numbers.   
      
   This consensus method is described on page 14 of the user guide at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/Usr_guide.pdf .   
      
   The reason the numbers are different in the table that N9WL asked   
   about is the prediction method is one developed in 1949, the   
   McNish-Lincoln technique. You can see that the bounds, or   
   uncertainty a few years into the future varies widely from the   
   method used by the Cycle 24 panel, which go no higher than 10.   
      
   The McNish-Lincoln technique is described at   
   ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/space-weather/solar-data/solar-indic   
   s/sunspot-numb ers/predicted/documentation/Hildner-Greer_SolarTe   
   restrialPredictions-1989.pdf   
   .   
   > poster's note: short URL -> http://tinyurl.com/mlwc4hx    
      
   In future years you will notice that the number in parenthesis   
   exceeds the predicted value. In these cases, the low end of the   
   range is 0.   
      
   John Campbell, K4NFE in Huntsville, AL, sent an article about a   
   sunspot larger than Jupiter. Read it at   
   http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2014/02/sunspot-active-jupiter/ .   
      
   A similar article is at   
   http://www.space.com/24586-monster-sunspot-ar1967-amazing-sun-photos.html   
   .   
      
   Unless you read the Propagation Forecast Bulletin linked from the   
   ARRL home page, you may have noticed the report in last week's   
   bulletin about finding a rare first edition of the Radio Amateur's   
   Handbook. Boy, was I fooled! This was a reproduction published by   
   the ARRL in 2006 on the ninetieth anniversary of the first edition,   
   and 20,000 copies were published. These were given to people who   
   pre-ordered the 2006 edition of the ARRL Handbook. No wonder it was   
   in such perfect condition. Not only that, but the library system   
   where I found it has six copies on the shelf. Each has the F.E.   
   Handy signature, above the words "Personal Copy."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for February 6 through 12 were 223, 241, 186, 180,   
   122, 151, and 187, with a mean of 184.3. 10.7 cm flux was 191.3,   
   178, 171.8, 169, 161, 172.2, and 160.1, with a mean of 171.9.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 9, 23, 18, 12, 6, and 9, with   
   a mean of 12.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 7, 19, 11,   
   9, 3, and 5, with a mean of 8.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   One of the great tragedies of life is the murder of a beautiful theory by a   
   gang of brutal facts. --Benjamin Franklin   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)