SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006   
   ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP06   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6  ARLP006   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 7, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP006   
   ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity surged this week, with average daily sunspot numbers   
   increasing nearly 55 points from 101.4 to 156.3. Average daily solar   
   flux rose nearly 38 points from 142.9 to 180.4. These increases   
   compare the recent period, January 30 through February 5, with the   
   previous seven days.   
      
   Geomagnetic indices remained quiet. So quiet, in fact, that on   
   February 4 the high latitude college A index near Fairbanks, Alaska   
   was 0, because each of the 3-hour K index readings that day were 0.   
   The same thing happened back on January 19.   
      
   Geomagnetic numbers will increase this weekend, with planetary A   
   index predicted to be 5, 15, 10 and 8 on February 7-10, followed by   
   5 on February 11-16, 8 on February 17-18, 5 on February 19-24, then   
   8 on February 25, then 5 February 26 through March 1, and 12 on   
   March 2.   
      
   Solar flux should be strong, with values of 190, 185, 180, 170 and   
   160 on February 7-11, 155 on February 12-13, followed by 135, 130   
   and 140 on February 14-16, and 145 on February 17-22. Solar flux is   
   expected to gradually climb to 200 on March 1, drop slightly, then   
   peak at 210 on March 5, followed by a low of 130 on March 14 and   
   then another rise.   
      
   OK1HH supplies us with his geomagnetic outlook, and he predicts the   
   geomagnetic field will be quite to active February 7-8, mostly quiet   
   February 9-10, quiet of February 11, mostly quite February 12, quiet   
   on February 13-15, quiet to unsettled February 16, quiet to active   
   February 17, quiet to unsettled February 18, quiet on February   
   19-20, quiet to unsettled February 21, quiet on February 22, quiet   
   to unsettled February 23, and quiet to active February 24-25.   
      
   Let us now review the recent averages, to see where solar activity   
   has been and perhaps where it is headed.   
      
   The average daily sunspot number for the month of January 2014 was   
   126, the highest it has been since October-November 2013 when it was   
   127.2 and 125.7. Prior to that, the most recent date it was higher   
   was way back in 2003, when the average daily sunspot number was   
   132.8 in July, and 150 in January.   
      
   We track a 3-month moving average for sunspot numbers, and the   
   averages for the three months ending in September (2013), October,   
   November, December and January (2014) were 77.4, 91.2, 102.9, 123.7   
   and 123.3. The last previous 3-month average that was a high as   
   recent numbers was 128.9 ending in February 2003.   
      
   Looking over the numbers for the past few years to determine if   
   there was a double peak shows us high average sunspot numbers at the   
   most recent period, 123.7 and 123.3 ending in December 2013 and   
   January 2014, then 106.4 on both 3-month periods ending May and June   
   2013, then 118.8 and 118.6 ending in November and December 2012.   
   This suggests that our second peak for Cycle 24 is the highest,   
   although how that other peak (May-June 2013) will figure into a   
   12-month smoothed sunspot number is anybody's guess.   
      
   Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP005 mentioned   
   something amiss with some of the recent solar flux and planetary 45   
   day forecasts from USAF/NOAA.  I emailed my spreadsheets of archives   
   for both predictions to a ham contact at NOAA, and they also saw the   
   problem.  Apparently on some days the prediction from two days prior   
   was reported instead of the latest one, due to some software   
   problem. They are working on a solution, and updating the past   
   records as needed.   
      
   Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington wrote: "Due to the large   
   size and magnetic complexity of sunspots now, January of 2014 set   
   not only a new solar flux high and sunspot number (237 and 245,   
   respectively) as you pointed out in an earlier article, but also   
   exceeded the November 2011 average solar flux value of 153 to   
   approximately 157. Size does matter! It looks as if we are seeing a   
   nice carryover into February, however the overall trend and strength   
   of this cycle will still be a low one. Typically we see big flux   
   fireworks at the top of the cycle, and this one seems to be   
   following suit. Recently there was an article on QRZ.com by a solar   
   science astronomer in Arizona who recapped the trend in sunspot   
   strength as on the decline. Bottom line: Take advantage of the great   
   conditions while they last!"   
      
   K7RA heartily agrees.   
      
   Phil Plait's blog on Slate.com highlights a big sunspot, which he   
   calls "ridiculously huge."  Check it out at   
   http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/02/04/sunspot_ar19   
   7_huge_sunspot _cluster_rotates_back_into_view.html   
   .   
      
   Mick, W3FJ of Williamsport, Pennsylvania wrote on January 31: "Just   
   a quick note to mention a brief opening this morning from about   
   1520Z to 1630Z when I had to leave for an appointment. 6 Meters was   
   open to a rather narrow area from my FN11 QTH in North Central PA   
   into Georgia and Alabama. I worked N3HJX, KG4YTP, and W4VAS all in   
   EM84 with good solid 59 signals. I also had a rather long QSO with   
   my old friend Burt, WA4VUT in EM50 in Alabama. Burt was consistently   
   59+ during our 10 to 15 minute QSO. Burt has been around the band   
   for many years and at age 87 sure doesn't look like he's going to   
   give it up soon."   
      
   The ARRL DX Bulletin   
   (http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLD006/2014) reports   
   that the CQ World Wide WPX RTTY Contest is this weekend, running   
   from 0000 UTC Saturday, February 8 until 2359 UTC Sunday, February   
   9. In case that isn't clear, on the West Coast of North America (in   
   Pacific Standard Time) that would be 4:00 PM tonight (Friday,   
   February 7, 2014) through 3:59 PM PST Sunday, February 9. See   
   details at http://www.cqwpxrtty.com/ . The site has a nice countdown   
   time.   
      
   And finally, I was visiting a rural library in a county north of me   
   and noticed a listing in their catalog for "The Radio Amateur's   
   Handbook." But the curious thing about it was that the record did   
   not list a publication date or edition number (now titled the "ARRL   
   Handbook," the 2014 copy is the ninety-first edition), and the   
   subtitle was "A Manual of Amateur Short Wave Radiotelegraphic   
   Communication."   
      
   I ordered it, and when it came in, I thought it must be a   
   reproduction, because it was in perfect condition, with all the   
   pages bright and white, no fading at all.  It turned out to be the   
   1926 First Edition, and I was shocked to discover a signature on the   
   flyleaf: "F.E. Handy" and "Personal Copy" written next to the   
   signature. Francis Edward Handy, W1BDI was the original editor and   
   creator of the handbook, and was also the Communications Manager for   
   many years at the ARRL. He was also the ham who dreamed up Field Day   
   and the ARRL Sweepstakes.   
      
   A couple of decades back I saw a classified ad in the back of QST   
   placed by his son, offering for sale individual copies of his   
   father's personal collection of handbooks. I bought several, and he   
   included some blank W1BDI QSL cards designed by Gil, W1CJD, the   
   artist who drew those classic ARRL illustrations for many years. One   
   of the cards shows the fellow I bought the handbooks from, as a   
   child, playing catch with a large glass vacuum tube, much to his   
   father's distress.   
      
   I seem to recall that he had this first edition for sale at the   
   time, but I couldn't afford it. The library got it in December 2005,   
   and I can only assume that the buyer or the buyer's estate donated   
   it to the library. I have it here, and it is quite a remarkable   
   find.   
      
   Chapter One is titled, "What Is An Amateur?" and the third paragraph   
   begins: "There is untold pleasure in two-way amateur operating. The   
   covering of hundreds of miles and the handling of friendly messages   
   with low amounts of power lends an interest not found in any other   
   pastime. Perhaps the relaying of messages has not been sufficiently   
   mentioned. That is one of the amateur's principal activities.   
   Friendly messages are accepted at any amateur station.  They are   
   passed on toward their destination from one station to another. No   
   charge is made for the service, and of course no responsibility can   
   be fixed for failure to perform. Usually messages are delivered by   
   telephone or by the operator in person as soon as they reach the   
   city of destination."   
      
   Chapter Two, titled "Getting Started" begins the second paragraph   
   with, "To understand and enjoy radio in the fullest sense we ought   
   to listen to all that takes place. The broadcast listener has but   
   skimmed the surface of radio fun. He has no conception of the joy   
   that will be his, once he has put his finger on the throbbing pulse   
   of two-way radio. Long waves, set up by frequencies below the   
   broadcast band, bring us a horde of flute-like signals. Press   
   messages, storm warnings, and weather reports from all over the   
   world tell their story to whomever will listen."   
      
   This first edition is truly a remarkable book.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 30 through February 5 were 112, 87, 147,   
   163, 168, 183, and 234, with a mean of 156.3. 10.7 cm flux was   
   160.5, 165.7, 176.7, 189.8, 188.3, 188.1, and 193.5, with a mean of   
   180.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 5, 4, 6, 5, and 4,   
   with a mean of 4.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 2,   
   4, 5, 4, and 5, with a mean of 3.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   One of the great tragedies of life is the murder of a beautiful theory by a   
   gang of brutal facts. --Benjamin Franklin   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)