SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002   
   ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP02   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 10, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP002   
   ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   If you haven't heard, the big geomagnetic storm predicted for   
   yesterday, Thursday, January 9, did not happen. Planetary A index   
   was predicted to be 73 for the day, and instead it was a quiet and   
   stable 10. The planetary A index predicted for today, January 10, is   
   41. The latest forecast from late Thursday has revised that to 40.   
      
   If the planetary A index had reached 73 yesterday, it would have   
   been historic. You have to look way back to December 15, 2006 to   
   find anything stronger.   
      
   But this has been an exciting week for Sun watchers. The daily   
   sunspot number reached 245 on January 6, and solar flux was 237.1 on   
   January 8. This may turn out to be a strong second peak for Cycle   
   24.   
      
   The GOES-15 x-ray background flux has also been high, and may be   
   more significant for enhanced HF propagation than a high solar flux.   
      
   You can see daily x-ray flux values here:   
      
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DSD.txt   
      
   For historical values of x-ray flux, solar flux and sunspot numbers   
   check the links marked DSD.txt:   
      
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/   
      
   The links marked DGD.txt will give you daily geomagnetic indicators.   
      
   The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology has a brief   
   explanation of x-ray flux at http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/1/3   
   .   
      
   Over the past week, average daily sunspot numbers rose more than 80   
   points to 188.1, and average daily solar flux was up more than 62   
   points to 201.6.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the next few days has been adjusted   
   downward about 11 points from Wednesday's forecast. The latest   
   prediction has solar flux of 184 on January 10-12, 175 on January   
   13, 155 on January 14, 150 on January 15-19, 155 on January 20, 160   
   on January 21-23, and 165 on January 24-26. It then rises to a peak   
   of 190 on January 29 through February 3, and declines to a minimum   
   of 140 on February 12-16 before rising again.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index values are 40, 15 and 8 on January   
   10-12, 5 on January 13-22, 10 on January 23, 8 on January 24, 5 on   
   January 25-27, then 10, 18 and 8 on January 28-30, then 5 again   
   until it hits 12 and 8 on February 6-7.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH has a short prediction for us this week. He sees   
   quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions on January 10, quiet to   
   active January 11, quiet to unsettled January 12, and mostly quiet   
   January 13-17.   
      
   Mike Stein, WB9NOO of Fort Wayne, Indiana sent an interesting report   
   on a sporadic-E event.   
      
   "I am a broadcast engineer at WANE-TV in Fort Wayne, Indiana.   
   Thursday, Jan 2 at noon, we were doing a live report from our remote   
   truck. We were using our IFB transmitter, running 1 watt FM into a   
   quarter-wave whip on 26.35 MHz, which transmits our off air audio to   
   the reporter a few feet away.   
      
   "After the newscast I received an e-mail from David E. Crawford in   
   Indian River City, Florida, who had received our signal. He was   
   using a Drake R8 receiver and 170 foot longwire 20 feet above   
   ground.   
      
   "He sent us pictures of his equipment and a recording, requesting a   
   QSL card.   
      
   "That was certainly exciting on both ends!"   
      
   IFB stands for "Interruptible Foldback" or "Interruptible Feedback,"   
   the low power system that transmits either cues from a director or   
   in this case audio off the air to a news reporter. Intended to   
   travel just a few feet, the signal made a roughly 900 mile trip to   
   Central Florida. Of course, they were using a full watt into a   
   quarter-wave whip, which at 26.35 MHz would be about 8 feet, 10   
   inches long.   
      
   I believe the SWL at the other end is probably KD4WHZ.   
      
   Bob Foster, N9BGC of Waverly, Iowa writes: "The best techniques I   
   have found this winter: 1) start high in frequency and work lower;   
   2) seek out the various beacons; 3) be aware of the LUF (Lowest   
   Useable Frequency) predictions found on the ARRL website. Those   
   techniques resulted in numerous DX contacts. Finally, don't be   
   discouraged if the DX isn't pounding into your shack. I had some   
   very enjoyable domestic QSOs this past week, when the DX was hard to   
   find."   
      
   The LUF predictions are in the propagation charts mentioned at the   
   bottom of this bulletin. LUF is shown as a blue line toward the   
   bottom of the charts.   
      
   Dennis Condron, K0LGI of Marion, Iowa sent information about   
   monitoring radio signals reflected from meteor trails. He and KB5VL   
   have a lot of material on this at,   
   http://www.roswellmeteor.com/default.htm . An interesting   
   description of what they do is at,   
   http://www.roswellmeteor.com/Receiving%20Meteor%20Reflections%20   
   sing%20DTV%20T ransmitters.pdf   
   .   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 2 through 8 were 133, 162, 178, 225,   
   245, 196, and 178, with a mean of 188.1. 10.7 cm flux was 160.5,   
   182.3, 215, 217.5, 203.9, 237.1, and 194.6, with a mean of 201.6.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 20, 6, 4, 4, 8, and 8, with a   
   mean of 10. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 15, 7, 6, 4, 4, 7,   
   and 8, with a mean of 7.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   Not only is the Universe stranger than we think, it is stranger than we can   
   think. - Werner Heisenberg   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)