SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048   
   ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP48   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 3, 2010   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP048   
   ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers for the week November 25 to December 1   
   increased only slightly from the previous seven days, 1.3 points to   
   25.9.  Average daily solar flux rose 1.8 points to 80.9.   
      
   Predicted solar flux values from NOAA/USAF for the next ten days,   
   December 3-12, are 90, 90, 90, 88, 88, 86, 86, 85, 85 and 88.   
   Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, and 7 for December 3-5, 5 on   
   December 6-10, and 7 on December 11-12.  There is a possibility of   
   geomagnetic activity today, December 3, caused by a possible coronal   
   mass ejection.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions on   
   December 3-4, quiet December 5-6, unsettled December 7-8, and quiet   
   to unsettled December 9.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers for the month of November were 36.2,   
   an increase of 1.2 points over October.  Average monthly values for   
   June through November were 18, 23.1, 28.2, 35.7, 35 and 36.2.   
      
   We now know the average daily sunspot number for the past three   
   months, centered on October, and it is 35.6, up about 2.6 points   
   from the three month period centered on September.  So the   
   three-month moving average, centered on May through October was   
   16.2, 20.4, 23.2, 28.9, 33 and 35.6.  Because it is a moving   
   average, with one month increments, the average centered on   
   September includes all the data from August 1 through October 31,   
   and the latest centered on October includes daily sunspot numbers   
   from September 1 through November 30.  A more precise reading of the   
   difference between the non-rounded October-centered and the   
   September-centered averages is 2.67 points.   
      
   The solar cycle continues to show improvement, but at a very slow   
   pace.   
      
   Robert Elek, W3HKK of Johnstown, Ohio reported good conditions for   
   last week's CQ World Wide CW DX Contest.  He wanted to see what he   
   could do with 100 watts and simple antennas on 40, 15 and 10 meters,   
   and with some casual contest operating he worked 200 stations in 31   
   zones.   
      
   He was eager to check out a new antenna he built, a 40 meter phased   
   array with two quarter wave verticals spaced a quarter wavelength   
   apart, and 12 ground radials each.  He used this on 40 and 15   
   meters, and a ground plane on 10 meters.  On Friday night he had   
   problems with QRM.  The bands were packed with strong signals.   
      
   He reports that he "got up around 4:30 AM Saturday morning and heard   
   much more manageable QRM levels, and good signals from the   
   equatorial regions - Africa, The Caribbean and the Pacific. As we   
   approached sunrise and for a few hours after sunrise there were   
   scattered strong signals including ZL8X and a half dozen Hawaiian   
   stations, but only a few JAs or anything over the pole from Asia.   
   However, northern Europe (OY, OH0, TF, SM) were coming through well   
   past OUR daybreak.   
      
   "This time I was concentrating on seeing what I could do with my new   
   40 meter Phased Array by chasing rarer and long haul DX, and trying   
   to work as many CQ zones as I could, but not concentrating on   
   rates/QSO numbers.  It was a casual weekend of DXing for me.   
      
   "I checked 15 and 10 meters and heard good signals, so I spent some   
   time between 10 AM and 4 PM working the interesting strong ones with   
   my 40 meter phased array on 15 and a simple ground plane on 10m.  To   
   my surprise, if I heard the DX station well, I could work them, no   
   matter where they were. Lots of tropical Africans, some Europeans,   
   the Caribbean and South America were coming in 59+.   
      
   "Back to 40 early Saturday evening saw significantly improved   
   conditions, with tons of Euros coming through. The amazing   
   multiplication of 40 meter Yagis seemingly filled the band with Big   
   Signals from both sides of the pond, South America, and Africa.  I   
   again decided to sleep early and get up around 3 AM Sunday to look   
   for Asia and the Pacific, rather than battle it out with the   
   multitudes.  Sunday morning, polar conditions were still not good,   
   but more JAs were coming through. I heard about a dozen, some with   
   signals around 599 for a time but most were 559 or so.  I heard one   
   Guam station, perhaps 8 VKs/ZLs, and again a smattering of JAs, but   
   no Indian, Chinese or other Asian stations in my casual strolls up   
   and down the band. Pacific and northern European stations continued   
   to come in several hours past sunrise, and some up till around 11 AM   
   local time (northern Europe and northern Russia).   
      
   Sunday from 11 AM till 4 PM, working 10 and 15 was a ball! Not a ton   
   of signals, but plenty to choose from, and about half were desirable   
   DX, including ZD9, ZD8, Gambia, Morocco, South Africa, VQ9, 5R8,   
   ZL8X, ZL7 (Kermadec).  Plus many South Americans, especially LU, CX,   
   PY and YV, and numerous Caribbean stations.  It was a ball being   
   able to work nearly everything I heard with my simple antennas. You   
   gotta love CW for that!   
      
   "On Sunday at 4 PM I moved back to 40 and it sounded like 20 does   
   during contests!  599 DX galore in the afternoon Ohio sunshine.   
   First the Euros were coming in from 7.000 to 7.105.  Then stations   
   in Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Cyprus, Lebanon, followed by tropical   
   Africa, the Caribbean, South America all with much better signals.   
   Sure, there is less QRM as more operators drop out, but you can   
   really cherry pick some nice DX if you poke through the rubble on 40   
   on the last day of a contest."   
      
   Dave Deatrick, WA8OLD way up in Sault Ste Marie, Michigan had a   
   similar experience on 40 meters on Sunday, running 400 watts CW into   
   an inverted vee with the apex at the top of his roof.  He was amazed   
   that European stations were coming in strong before his local   
   sunset.  He also worked an Australian before 9 AM local time on   
   Sunday morning.   
      
   In the 1300z hour he worked Iceland, Finland, Bahamas and Australia.   
   In the 2100z hour it was Slovenia, Croatia, Poland, Sicily and   
   Serbia.  In the 2200z hour it was Netherlands, Sweden, Cyprus and   
   Portugal, and during the 2300z hour he worked Turkmenistan, France   
   and Bulgaria.   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK in Wichita, Kansas reports that on November 29 at   
   0225z he worked W4IMD in EM84 on 6 meter E-skip.  Later he heard the   
   XE2K beacon for over 30 minutes around 0335z on 50.015 MHz.  For   
   some images of what W4IMD was using, check   
   http://www.qrz.com/db/w4imd.   
      
   Mike Carter, K8CN of Durham, New Hampshire wrote, "As a relative   
   newcomer to QRP contesting (about 3 years experience now) and   
   without a substantial history of contesting at any higher power   
   level, I was intrigued by the unusually good propagation we   
   experienced in CQWW CW last weekend. Many QRP contesters established   
   new personal records for this contest. Apparently I was not the only   
   one who noticed - the 3830 contest reflector has many comments on   
   the good propagation enjoyed by all.  My friend Mark, K1RX, a highly   
   accomplished Single Op contester with a very nice antenna farm,   
   commented that the propagation conditions were the best he'd seen   
   for this particular contest in 20 years of participation, but then   
   propagation is always good for a station with 1500 watts into   
   stacked Yagis!"   
      
   Dick Bingham, W7WKR of Stehekin, Washington (a little village in the   
   mountains completely off the grid, and reachable only by boat) sends   
   along some info about Long Delayed Echoes (LDE) from   
   http://www.spaceweather.com.  At http://brogl.net/Audio are   
   recordings made by DK6NP of supposed LDEs on 40 meters with a 46   
   second delay, but I had difficulty hearing exactly what was going on   
   in those recordings.  Spaceweather.com offered a couple of   
   interesting LDE links, at   
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_delayed_echo and   
   http://heim.ifi.uio.no/~sverre/LDE/Shlionskiy15.htm.   
      
   Check out this page on the Ionosphere Program at the National   
   Geophysical Data Center:   
   http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/ionohome.html.   
      
   Dean Straw, N6BV sent along a useful link for web-based seminars   
   from the Northern California Contest Club, at   
   http://nccc.cc/webinars.html.  At the bottom are a couple of his   
   presentations on propagation, complete with audio.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 25 through December 1 were 22, 23, 22,   
   34, 31, 24, and 25, with a mean of 25.9. 10.7 cm flux was 77.9,   
   76.2, 76.5, 80.1, 82.5, 86.4 and 86.5 with a mean of 80.9. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 4, 2, 12, 6, 3, 3 and 2 with a mean of 4.6.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 0, 5, 7, 2, 2 and 1 with a   
   mean of 2.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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