SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047   
   ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP47   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47  ARLP047   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 29, 2010   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP047   
   ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily solar flux declined this week over 36 points compared   
   to last week, to 24.6.  Our reporting week, which ran until November   
   24, showed the daily sunspot number declining from 40 to 11, but on   
   November 25 the sunspot number rose to 22.   
      
   Sunspot group 1125 disappeared on November 17, and on November 20   
   sunspot group 1124 was gone, after ten days of visibility.  1126 was   
   gone on November 23 (after 11 days), and 1127 is still visible after   
   ten days.  On November 25 new sunspot group 1128 arose near the   
   eastern horizon, and may provide some needed propagation juice for   
   this weekend's CQ World Wide CW DX Contest.   
      
   Solar flux during this week went from a high of 86.5 to 74.8, and   
   the predicted solar flux for November 26-30 is 78, 78, 79, 80 and   
   80. Solar flux is predicted at 78 for December 1-3, then 85 on   
   December 4-11 and 90 on December 12-14.  Perhaps this bodes well for   
   the ARRL 10 meter Contest, December 11-12.  That contest is also   
   during a time when ionization from meteors may enhance 10 meter   
   propagation.   
      
   The above solar flux forecast is from NOAA and USAF, and they say   
   planetary A index should be stable for the next couple of weeks,   
   with the index at five for November 26 through December 10.   
   Geophysical Institute Prague has a different outlook.  They also say   
   that for the next week, look for quiet conditions November 26,   
   quiet-to-unsettled November 27, unsettled November 28,   
   quiet-to-unsettled November 29, and quiet November 30 through   
   December 2.   
      
   This weekend the STEREO mission (see http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/)   
   will achieve 97.3% coverage.  This means that only 2.7% of the Sun   
   is now not visible to us, and that is in the area on the side of the   
   Sun facing away from Earth.  STEREO will achieve 98.7% coverage by   
   the end of this year, and should finally achieve 100% coverage some   
   time on February 6, 2011.   
      
   Things are still looking up in terms of increasing sunspot activity.   
   The first 25 days in November had an average daily sunspot number of   
   38, compared to 18, 23.1, 28.2, 35.7 and 35 for June through   
   October.  If this average continues through the next five days,   
   November will have the highest monthly average of daily sunspot   
   numbers since May, 2006 when it was 39.6.   
      
   A brief report from Pete Heins, N6ZE of Thousand Oaks, California   
   (DM04): On November 19 at 0056 UTC with 100 watts and a vertical he   
   worked VP8LP in the Falkland Islands, with S5 reports both   
   directions.  VP8LP was working mostly W6, W7 and VE7.  For details   
   on Pete's VHF exploits, see http://www.qrz.com/db/n6ze.   
      
   Larry Jones, K5ZRK of Sandersville, Mississippi lives on the edge of   
   the Tallahala Swamp. He wrote, "I operate only 30 and 60 meters.  On   
   60 meters I have a separate receive antenna. The morning of November   
   17 while in QSO with Les, KG4QZV (in Rome, Georgia, about 300 miles   
   away), after Les un-keyed I heard a very distinct echo off his   
   signal. We were on 5.3465 MHz.  The echo had less signal strength   
   than Les's originating signal.  I have only heard this happen once   
   before on 60 meters and I chase the gray line on this band every   
   day.  Is this long path or diversity reception?  I might also note   
   that the gray line was very productive this same morning."   
      
   Hard to say what was causing that echo, but at 186,000 miles per   
   second, a 30 ms echo could emerge if the signal traveled 2700 miles,   
   bounced, and covered the same distance back.  Seems unlikely to be   
   long path, but perhaps that gray line was propagating that signal a   
   long distance, and propagating the echo back.   
      
   Read more about Larry's QRP activity on 30 and 60 meters at   
   http://www.qrz.com/db/k5zrk.   
      
   Some readers who read this bulletin in the html version on the ARRL   
   web site had trouble linking to the PDF provided by Dean Straw, N6BV   
   last week.  Try the text version at   
   http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP046/2010 and   
   right-click and save via the link provided for the PDF of "Seeing   
   the HF Propagation Big Picture."   
      
   Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA has a piece on HF circular polarization in   
   his Propagation column in the current issue of World Radio at   
   http://www.worldradiomagazine.com.   
      
   Thanks to K1SFA for posting this bulletin to the ARRL web site from   
   her home on Friday, November 26.  The email version won't propagate   
   until Monday, November 29.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 18 through 24 were 40, 37, 24, 25, 23,   
   12, and 11, with a mean of 24.6. 10.7 cm flux was 86.5, 84, 79.8,   
   77.6, 74.8, 75.3 and 75.8 with a mean of 79.1. Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 5, 2, 2, 3, 4, 8 and 4 with a mean of 4. Estimated   
   mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 2, 2, 4, 7 and 3 with a mean of   
   3.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
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