SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052   
   ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP53   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 28, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP052   
   ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   An error crept into data reported in last week's bulletin. Solar   
   flux on December 19 was 113.4, not 117.5. The average for the week,   
   117.5, was transposed into the solar flux number for the last day of   
   the reporting period. The Winter Solstice was on the date of the   
   last Propagation Forecast Bulletin, ARLP051, on Friday December 21,   
   at 1112z.   
      
   Average daily solar flux was down this week about four points to   
   113.4, which coincidentally was the solar flux number for the last   
   reporting day of the previous week.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers were down 6.7 points to 65.4.   
   Geomagnetic indices were very low and stable, which should please   
   160 meter operators, who are also enjoying the long periods of   
   darkness in the Northern Hemisphere.   
      
   Predicted solar flux from NOAA and USAF are 110 on December 28-30,   
   115 on December 31 through January 4, 105 on January 5-7, 110 and   
   115 on January 8-9, 120 on January 10-12, 115 in January 13-19, and   
   120 on January 20-22.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 28-29, 5 on December 30   
   through January 12, 10 on January 13, and 5 on January 14-25.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH has his own geomagnetic forecast, and he says   
   conditions will be quiet to unsettled on December 28-29, mostly   
   quiet December 30-31, quiet on January 1-3, mostly quiet January 4,   
   quiet to unsettled January 5, mostly quiet January 6, quiet on   
   January 7-9, mostly quiet January 10, quiet to unsettled January 11,   
   mostly quiet January 12, active to disturbed January 13, quiet to   
   unsettled January 14, mostly quiet January 15, quiet to active   
   January 16, and quiet January 17-19.   
      
   Jeff, N8II from West Virginia wrote with some observations: "On   
   Monday December 17 I got up early to find UA0ZN in zone 19 on 80 and   
   finding not much else, decided to call CQ which resulted in a run of   
   JAs around sunrise, most of which were very good copy ending with a   
   JA5 who was S9+10dB! It was one of the best JA openings I have ever   
   heard from here and my biggest 'run.' Signals from all over   
   Australia were booming in on the Southern Cross net on 14.2385 MHz   
   around 1300Z, and 12 meters was wide open to Central and Western   
   Europe with a few Southern Europeans on 10 meters. VR2XMT was S7 on   
   long-path on 12 meters around 1330Z.   
      
   "I finally had some spare time on a decent sunny day Sunday,   
   December 23, and fixed my 160 meter sloper feedline. It still needs   
   some work, but is working like a champ! With 200 watts I was getting   
   thru to European stations Sunday night with ease. Worked UX0ZA,   
   another UR, SM6MCW, two Gs, DJ2EH (S9+), another DL, F6 (S9), OE5O,   
   OK1DQT, OM2XW, and ON4IA (S9+). I also heard 9K2MU who had many USA   
   stations calling him he could not hear. He was mainly working Europe   
   and calling CQ.   
      
   "Sunday morning was rather poor on 12 meters with some western EU Qs   
   and a loud LA4. 10 was pretty close to dead, but there were a few   
   western USA on in the afternoon. But 17 meters was wide open to   
   Europe with good signals, whereas they would have been much weaker   
   with higher SFI."   
      
   If you are curious about Jeff's antennas, log into QRZ.com and check   
   his page at http://www.qrz.com/db/N8II.   
      
   Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington thinks we are past the peak   
   of Cycle 24. He writes, "It's pretty evident to me that unless we   
   see another re-generation of new sunspots, November of 2011 will be   
   the peak of Cycle 24 (short as the activity was) as actual solar   
   activity as defined by average monthly sunspots and solar flux. Both   
   measures have been slowly on the decline since that date. Then we   
   will all have to prepare for the coming Propagation Winter."   
      
   Brad Miskimen, N5LUL of Amarillo, Texas wrote: "The design of the   
   Yaesu FT857-D requires one to 'scroll' from one band to another   
   rather than a simple push of a button. I had the rig set on 2 meters   
   Tuesday evening (December 25), and planned to scroll down to 40   
   meters for the SKCC 2 hour sprint. Hokey Smokes!  Voices on 6 when I   
   hit that band section!  Stopped and made a few contacts into   
   Tennessee. I only caught things open from 12/26 0046z to 0050z.   
      
   "Not too impressive, but more contacts than I have made in the past   
   2 months on 6 meters. Looking forward to the January 19th VHF   
   contest."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at,   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 20 through 26 were 53, 55, 67, 90, 53,   
   58, and 82, with a mean of 65.4. 10.7 cm flux was 114.1, 114.6,   
   115.3, 114.2, 113.1, 113, and 109.8, with a mean of 113.4. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 6, 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of   
   3.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 2,   
   with a mean of 2.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
   fidonet echomail without alteration other than the removal of   
   email header and other control information which   
   is not part of the actual publication.   
      
   Gentlemens' agreements ratified by IARU regions 1 and 2 have   
   designated a global "center of activity" frequency  in  each   
   of  the  international  hf  bands.  THese are similar to the   
   concept for weak signal calling and other center of activity   
   frequencies.  Three of these have been ratified worldwide.   
      
   THese  center of activity frequencies are where stations can   
   go to render or obtain emergency assistance.   
      
   WHen casually operating or  contesting  on  hf  please  make   
   yourself  aware  of  these  frequencies,  and give them some   
   space. Remember that often stations with emergency needs are   
   not  those  utilizing  high  gain antennas and maximum legal   
   power.   
      
   TO find out more, visit 14300.net or IARU web resources.   
      
      
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    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)