SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051   
   ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP52   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51  ARLP051   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 21, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP051   
   ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   It is Friday, December 21, 2012, and the world did not end. To   
   herald this non-event, NASA even produced a wonderful video   
   explaining how the whole thing was a misconception anyway. The Mayan   
   calendar is like an odometer, and when it gets to 999999, it just   
   roles over to 0 and begins anew.   
      
   You can watch the video at   
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QY_Gc1bF8ds and be sure to check out   
   the HD and full-screen options.   
      
   As expected, Phil Plait of "Bad Astronomy" also provides a   
   nonsense-free assessment at http://goo.gl/xknYD. Check his blog at   
   http://www.badastronomy.com and   
   http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy.html. Phil, a solid friend   
   of science, refers to the non-event as the "Maya Notpocalypse."   
      
   Solar activity increased this week, but only slightly. Similarly,   
   geomagnetic indices were up as well, but not by much.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers increased 24.5 points to 72.1, and   
   average daily solar flux was up by 14.8 points to 117.5. Expressed   
   as a percentage, the average daily sunspot number increase seems   
   large, but it is still in the area of low solar activity.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index increased 3.4 points to 5.4, and   
   average daily mid-latitude A index increased 2 points to 5.1. This   
   is still low activity, with the A index good for 160 meters, but   
   sunspot numbers not what 10 or 15 meter operators would like to see.   
      
   NOAA and USAF predict 10.7 cm solar flux numbers at 115 for December   
   21-24, 120 on December 25-27, 100 on December 28-29, 95 on December   
   30 through January 3, 100 on January 4, 105 on January 5-7, 110 and   
   115 on January 8-9, 120 on January 10-12 and peaking at 125 on   
   January 13-14. The prediction shows flux values dropping below 100   
   on January 26-30, and then rising above 100 in February.   
      
   We see planetary A index at 5 on December 21-22, 8 on December   
   23-24, 5 on December 25-28, 8 on December 29, then 5 on December 30   
   through January 12. We see a big jump to 16 and 12 on January 13-14,   
   then dropping back to 5 again into February.   
      
   OK1HH believes that "Present type of development in solar active   
   regions and its configuration reduces the reliability of   
   predictions."  He also says the geomagnetic field will be active to   
   disturbed on December 21, mostly quiet on December 22-23, quiet on   
   December 24, mostly quiet December 25, quiet December 26-28, quiet   
   to active December 29, quiet December 30-31, mostly quiet January 1,   
   quiet January 2-5, quiet to active January 6, quiet to unsettled   
   January 7, quiet January 8-9, mostly quiet January 10, quiet to   
   unsettled January 11-12, active to disturbed January 13.   
      
   Tom Morton, CXC7TT from Rocha, Uruguay, writes concerning the ARRL   
   10 Meter Contest (December 8-9, 2012): "Due to house guests, did not   
   participate in contest, except for roughly 30 contacts. I turned the   
   rig on right at 0000z on Friday night and 10m was pretty much dead   
   (that's 2200 local). I did hear and work XV1X (Viet Nam) at 0001   
   beaming LP over the SW tip of the USA so band had gone really long.   
   XV is about 12,000 nm from here LP. The next morning, typically good   
   for EU, was pretty dead. The few big guns in EU were coming thru but   
   not with really big signals. FH8PL at 1217z on SSB and T6LG at 1218z   
   on CW were pretty easy to work. The next day A45XR at 1600z on 10 CW   
   was another easy catch. Around 1400z on Sunday the band really   
   opened up to the US. My P3 had signals from 28001 that finally   
   tapered off around 28091 and SSB was crowded from 28300 to 28553. It   
   was definitely a South American day as two local multi-single   
   stations were running Qs big time. CW5W and CX5BW were within 200 Qs   
   of each other by mid afternoon Sunday. I think Jorge and his crew,   
   CW5W, may have the top score with over 3200 Qs.   
      
   "My rig is modest K3/100 to Acom 1000 and 3 ele SteppIR at 17 meters   
   high.   
      
   "BTW, I never reported this before but last April 3 at 1545z I   
   worked A92IO on 6 meters for my best DX ever; a couple hours later,   
   worked 3 4X/4Z on 6 meter CW. Previously I had worked some   
   eastern/mid west USA, a few EUs and handful of Caribbean stations."   
      
   Thanks, Tom!   
      
   Peter Matsunaga, WH6EAU - who operates from Oahu's south coast with   
   50 watts into an end-fed wire - also had 10 meter contest comments:   
   "From a limited time working during the contest period, propagation   
   seemed better on Saturday than Sunday. On both days, I could work   
   only one US station, in Texas. My QTH seems to be in a dead spot for   
   much of continental United states due to a nearby mountain mass.   
   Otherwise I could work S. Brazil, Uruguay, Chile, Argentina,   
   Australia on Saturday, and Japan on Sunday. Signal strength to   
   Australia was particularly strong at times."   
      
   Kevin Seeger, NC6V of Corona, California wrote also about the 10   
   Meter contest: "As N9LB experienced I too noticed the band from time   
   to time just going dead. I checked my antenna and coax a few times   
   to see if they were still there. E skip openings were very, very   
   rare to almost nonexistent. The strangest propagation was a severe   
   echo on Sunday I was hearing from stations on CW located in Ohio and   
   Pennsylvania. At times it was so bad I couldn't copy their calls.   
      
   "I worked most states east of the Mississippi but missed the whole   
   W7 call area and a big part of the W0 call area. Several JAs were   
   worked Sunday afternoon and working into South America was a   
   breeze."   
      
   Gerald Fasse, W8GF of Warren, Michigan wrote, "Among the toughest DX   
   paths from Southeast Michigan is Cambodia (regular path heading 350   
   degrees, and 14,000 kM). My only need was and still is 30 Meters.   
   Many 30 Meter spots were noted on the DX Cluster coupled with   
   frantic dial spinning but nil copy here. But I did manage to make a   
   single 20 Meter CW QSO at 1830Z on December 14. Checking W6EL's   
   propagation program for openings to the SE Michigan area it was   
   noted that possible openings occur between 1600Z and 1900Z for that   
   date. The point being that XU1A CQed again and again that day with   
   few QSOs noted probably because mid-day openings to SE Asia are not   
   expected. Don't always depend on the DX cluster for rare and unusual   
   DX info. Tune your radio!"   
      
   And finally, Jon Jones, N0JK had some 6 meter E-skip to report: "A   
   winter 6 meter Es opening the evening of December 16 (17th UTC) from   
   the Midwest across the southern states. W4IMD EM84 worked at 0112   
   UTC and heard WA4NJP loud. The WB5LLI/b EM40 copied at 0130 UTC."   
   Jon is in Lawrence, Kansas in EM17.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 13 through 19 were 77, 71, 88, 74, 83,   
   66, and 46, with a mean of 72.1. 10.7 cm flux was 116.6, 119.2,   
   122.4, 119.5, 115, 116.2, and 117.5, with a mean of 102.7. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 3, 3, 7, 5, 10, 6, and 4, with a mean of   
   5.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 4, 7, 5, 9, 5, and 4,   
   with a mean of 5.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
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