SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050   
   ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP51   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50  ARLP050   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 14, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP050   
   ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers fell 13.5 points this week from 61.1   
   to 47.6. Average daily solar flux was about the same this week as   
   last, rising 1.1 points to 102.7. Geomagnetic indices were even   
   quieter this week than last.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 115 on December 14, 120 on December 15-16,   
   115 on December 17-19, 110 on December 20-21, 115 on December 22-23,   
   110 on December 24-27, 100 on December 28-29, 95 on December 30   
   through January 3, 100 on January 4-5, and 105 on January 6-8. Solar   
   flux then jumps abruptly to 125 and 130 on January 13-14.   
      
   The predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 14-15, 8 on   
   December 16, 10 on December 17, 5 on December 18-28, 8 on December   
   29, 5 on December 30 through January 5, 7 on January 6-7, 5 on   
   January 8-9, 8 on January 10-11 and 5 on January 12-27.   
      
   OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled on   
   January 14, mostly quiet December 15, quiet to unsettled December   
   16, active to disturbed December 17, mostly quiet December 18, quiet   
   December 19. A positive storm phase is expected December 20, with   
   active to disturbed conditions December 20-21, quiet to unsettled   
   December 22, mostly quiet December 23, quiet December 24, quiet to   
   unsettled December 25, mostly quiet December 26, quiet December 27,   
   quiet to active December 28, quiet December 29, quiet to unsettled   
   December 30-31, quiet January 1-4, active to disturbed January 5-6.   
      
   Both NASA and NOAA have tweaked their predictions for the peak of   
   the current solar cycle next year. To see the NOAA changes, go to   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/ and select PRF 1940 and go to page   
   12. Then open another browser window and select PRF 1944 and go to   
   page 16.   
      
   Notice that in the November prediction, the cycle peaks at 90 in May   
   through July 2013, and the smoothed sunspot number for January   
   through April is 81, 83, 85 and 88. In the December prediction, we   
   see two instead of three peak months, June and July 2013. The   
   numbers for January through May are 79, 81, 83, 86 and 88. This is a   
   marginally weaker predicted peak for cycle 24.   
      
   The latest NASA prediction is at   
   http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml   
      
   The change here is from 73 to 72 for a smoothed sunspot number   
   maximum in the December 10 prediction compared to the November 2   
   prediction. The other change is last month when they wrote "The   
   smoothed sunspot number (for 2012/02) is already nearly 67 due to   
   the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at   
   least this high." This month the end of the line was changed to "at   
   least this high and this late."   
      
   Seen on Bob Kile's (W7RH) Facebook page on Tuesday: "For those low   
   band operators out there. The solar activity remains low and the   
   solar wind is under 300km/sec. That means West Coast to EU, boys! I   
   have six in the log last Saturday night and there have been West   
   Coast openings since last Friday."   
      
   I believe Bob is referring to 160 meters.   
      
   Lloyd Berg, N9LB of Oregon, Wisconsin (Oregon is a town just south   
   of Madison, Wisconsin) wrote about the 10 Meter contest:   
      
   "This year required a continuous effort on Friday evening, all day   
   Saturday and all day Sunday, including numerous 'dead band' times of   
   waiting and wondering if the band was going to come back or not. I   
   can see a large chunk of the band on my FLEX - Software Defined   
   Radio panoramic display - and when I say the band went dead, I see   
   it happening just like somebody turned down the RF gain - only took   
   a minute or two to extinguish all signals. I'd actually transmit   
   just to make sure the antenna was connected. I also looked out the   
   window many times to see if the antenna was still there (it was).   
   Really odd.   
      
   "At the beginning of the contest, the solar numbers looked awfully   
   low for decent 10m propagation: SFI=97, SSN=23, A=1, K=0. Conditions   
   were very weird from my Wisconsin QTH. The band kept going dead,   
   then we'd have a bit of garden variety E-skip 'here-and-there,' then   
   dead again. Then it would open up real wide, going way beyond simple   
   E-skip... North, South, East and West all at the same time.   
      
   "Worked everything East of the Mississippi in North America   
   (E-skip). Worked Hawaii, more Alaskans than in any other single   
   contest ever, many BC, and a NWT, but never heard most of the Rocky   
   Mountain states. Easy to work every active station in South and   
   Central America, and the Caribbean - day or night. Nice and strong   
   but short-lived openings to Azores, Cape Verde and Canary Islands.   
      
   "Worked several ZSs, VKs, ZLs and an E51 during a few short precious   
   minutes of openings on Saturday evening and again on Sunday   
   afternoon. No Japan or Asia heard at all. Only European contacts   
   were a couple of Spain and Portugal, again during a very brief   
   opening (well after their sunset)."   
      
   Thanks, Lloyd!   
      
   Jeff Hartley, N8II of West Virginia wrote, also about the 10 Meter   
   contest: "Sunday was noticeably better than Saturday in the 10M   
   contest this past weekend. I only worked about 15 EU stations all   
   weekend, but conditions to the west coast were extremely good and we   
   had plenty of Es Friday night and Saturday night into MN, WI, SD,   
   IA, MO, KS, and OK as well ME and VE1, VE9, VY2. The last hour   
   featured Es into KP4 and NC, SC, AL, KY, TN, FL, MS, AR, LA and TX.   
      
   "Highlights were working A45 around 1630Z Saturday and a great long   
   path Asian opening on Sunday which lasted for hours, starting around   
   1250Z on CW with about four JAs, BD7 at 1302Z, BV1 at 1308, XV1 at   
   1405, HS0 at 1414,and 9V1 at 1538, and also called on phone by HS0   
   at 1506. Sunday was extremely good to the west coast from 1710Z thru   
   2235Z, one WA station running a half watt was a solid S4 and mobiles   
   had solid signals. All states were worked on CW and only missed AK   
   on phone. There was propagation of some sort to all states at one   
   time or another with only the very close states on backscatter   
   only."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 6 through 12 were 49, 23, 35, 40, 49,   
   55, and 82, with a mean of 47.6. 10.7 cm flux was 97.4, 97.1, 101.1,   
   103.7, 104, 103.7, and 111.9, with a mean of 102.7. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 1, 1, 1, 4, 3, 2, and 2, with a mean of 2.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 1, 1, 3, 3, 2 and 3, with a   
   mean of 2.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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