SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045   
   ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP46   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 9, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP045   
   ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Again this week solar activity retreated.  Average daily sunspot   
   numbers declined 8.7 points to 49.7, and average daily solar flux   
   was down nearly 20 points to 97.2.   
      
   The latest forecast (from Thursday, November 8) shows solar flux at   
   105 and 110 on November 9-10, 115 on November 11-17, 110 on November   
   18-20, 105 and 100 on November 21-22, 105 on November 23-24, and 100   
   on November 25-26. Flux values then drop below 100 on November 27   
   through December 2.   
      
   The planetary A index forecast predicts an A index of 5 on November   
   9, 7 on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-18, 8 on November 19, 5 on   
   November 20 through December 4, and 10 on December 5-8.   
      
   Currently the Sun is peppered with a few weak spots, but there have   
   been 1-2 new sunspot groups every day starting on November 3.   
   November 3 had one new spot, November 4 had two, then two more on   
   November 5, one on November 6 and another on November 7, and two new   
   ones on November 8.   
      
   OK1HH has a new geomagnetic forecast from Prague, and he predicts   
   quiet to unsettled conditions November 9, active to disturbed   
   November 10, quiet to active November 11, quiet to unsettled   
   November 12, quiet November 13, mostly quiet November 14-15, quiet   
   again November 16-19, mostly quiet November 20, quiet November 21,   
   mostly quiet November 22-23, quiet November 24-26, quiet to active   
   November 27, active to disturbed November 28, quiet to unsettled   
   November 29, and quiet on December 1.   
      
   NASA tweaked their forecast for the smoothed sunspot number at the   
   peak of Cycle 24 next Fall. On October 2 they predicted a sunspot   
   number maximum of 75 in Fall 2013, and on November 2 they changed   
   that to 73.   
      
   Scott Wright, K0MD of Rochester, Minnesota shared some brief   
   observations on conditions during the CQ World Wide DX SSB Contest   
   (October 27-28, two weekends ago). He wrote, "I did not find the   
   band openings nearly as good this year as last year. Ten meters was   
   very good but not as good as 2011. Propagation was down on 40 meters   
   with lower country totals from the Midwest than I saw last year. 160   
   was not very good but no surprise there, given it is October."   
      
   Check out Scott's station at http://www.k0md.com/.   
      
   The next CQ World Wide DX contest is the CW weekend, November 24-25.   
   See http://www.cqww.com/. A week from now is the Phone weekend for   
   ARRL Sweepstakes, a domestic contest. See   
   http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes.   
      
   Scott noted the better propagation during the same contest last   
   year.  This year, the average daily sunspot number for the ten day   
   period ending on Sunday, October 28, the last day of the contest,   
   was 79.8.  But for the same period last year, ending on Sunday,   
   October 30, 2011 the average daily sunspot number was 111.6, quite a   
   bit higher, by 40% in fact.   
      
   Max White, M0VNG of Worcester, UK sent this article about a coronal   
   hole and a disastrous solar wind back in January 1994:   
   http://o.canada.com/2012/10/17/canadian-scientists-identify-suns   
   coronal-hole-as   
   -culprit-in-1994-anik-satellite-failures/.   
      
   We can check an archive of geomagnetic indices to get a sense of   
   what the effect on Earth was:   
      
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/1994_DGD.txt   
      
   Note there are days in January of that year when readings from the   
   magnetometer near Fairbanks, Alaska (the College A index) that have   
   asterisks instead of numbers. This is what we see occasionally when   
   the magnetometer is completely overloaded with energy, and cannot   
   produce any sort of meaningful results.   
      
   We can see there was a lot of geomagnetic activity that year. I   
   would like to refer back to propagation forecast bulletins from   
   January 1994, but unfortunately the online archive at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation doesn't begin   
   until January 1995. If anyone has copies of the propagation bulletin   
   prior to 1995, please contact me.  Perhaps you have an old hard   
   drive from a personal computer used for packet radio twenty years   
   ago?   
      
   K9LA has some great propagation resources on his web site at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/index.html. He has download   
   links for free pdf copies of both NM7M propagation books, and a   
   slide presentation showing an update on Cycle 24 that he presented   
   in July. If you don't have Microsoft PowerPoint to watch the slides,   
   you can download a free reader at   
   http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/details.aspx?id=13.   
      
   From two years ago, G0KYA has a downloadable pdf eBook titled   
   "Understanding LF and HF Propagation" at   
   http://g0kya.blogspot.com/2010/11/understanding-lf-and-hf-propagation.html.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 1 through 7 were 48, 34, 35, 46, 47,   
   61, and 77, with a mean of 49.7. 10.7 cm flux was 98.4, 96.5, 93.3,   
   95, 96.6, 98.7, and 101.7, with a mean of 97.2. Estimated planetary   
   A indices were 17, 5, 3, 2, 2, 4, and 10, with a mean of 6.1.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 17, 5, 2, 1, 2, 4, and 10,   
   with a mean of 5.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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