TID: FMail-W32 2.3.0.1-B20240319   
   RFC-X-No-Archive: Yes   
   TZUTC: 0200   
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   REPLY: 2617.ipv6@1:154/700 2cea28b6   
   Hello Nick,   
      
   On Saturday July 26 2025 09:38, you wrote to me:   
      
    NB> And you always will run into those walls. This is somewhat comparable   
    NB> to sysops that still wish to run BBS software from the 80s/90s, that   
    NB> don't and will never support things like a TZUTC kludge. It's   
    NB> ultimately their choice.   
      
   The effect of not supporting TZUTC is less than the effect of not supporting   
   IPv6 will be. And, yes it is ultimately the choice of the sysop.   
      
    >> For those confronted with te reality of IPv4 exhaustion and the   
    >> shattered brick wall of denial, there is brick wall #2. Hang on to   
    >> IPv4 no matter what tricks it needs.   
      
    NB> Some people don't like change, until they're ultimately forced to do   
    NB> so. If IPv4 is ever fully phased out, my guess is Fidonet will lose   
    NB> another big chunk of nodelisted sysops. Much like when darktech.org   
    NB> and no-ip.com were abandoned, but on a bigger scale.   
      
   Possibly. Read on...   
      
   IPv4 will stay around for quit some time. It won't go out with a bang, it will   
   just fade away. Like IPX/SPX. For all intents and purposes IPX/SPX is gone, or   
   at least it does not play a major role any more. It is gone from my house, but   
   surely it will still be in use somewhere. Something similar will probably   
   happen to IPv4. In the long run there is no business case for keeping both   
   protocols. So when "everyone" has IPv6 the benefits of maintaining support for   
   IPv4 along with IPv6 will eventually no longer outweigh the cost and affort so   
   manufacturers and providers will eventually stop support for IPv4. Like   
   support for IPX/SPX has stopped.   
      
   That will not happen tomorow. I may or may not live to see it. What will   
   happen in the foreseaable future and is already happening in sone parts of the   
   Internet is that providers no longer offer a globally routable IPv4 address to   
   their customers, they will have to make do with CGNAT.   
      
    >> IPv4 exhaustion may not be a serious problem for the incumbents in   
    >> parts of the world where IPv4 was historically issued as if it   
    >> would last forever.   
      
    NB> I imagine some of these bigger ISPs, mine included (Spectrum), bought   
    NB> up a ton of IPv4 blocks because they saw all of this coming and could   
    NB> afford to take it all away from smaller ISPs for themselves. Heck,   
    NB> there may even be enough IPv4 addresses at these large ISPs to go   
    NB> around still, but they are hoarding them for their own (current and   
    NB> future) customers.   
      
   Ever since the well of IPv4 fell dry, there has been a market for IPv4   
   adresses. And when demand exceeds supply, the price goes up. And with dynamic   
   prices speculation and hoarding comes into play. But in the early days there   
   was no level playing field. Some early major players were issued very large   
   blocks of IPv4. And some have sold it what they did not need, some are still   
   sitting on it. In the meantime the peak is history. Price for an IPv4 address   
   has peaked at about $60 a couple of years ago. Now it is around $40. So some   
   of the hoarders have fished behind the net alraedy.   
      
    NB> While I don't follow the situation very much, nor do I have any   
    NB> experience with it (I have native "dynamic that never changes unless I   
    NB> change hardware" IPv4 that I have always had, as well as native   
    NB> "dynamic that never changes unless I change hardware" IPv6), but do   
    NB> you think these bigger ISPs rent out some IPv4 addresses to smaller   
    NB> ISPs just so they can do said DSLite kind of setups?   
      
    NB> Is this DSLite setup a bunch of private addresses not open to the   
    NB> outside, that run off of one or a few public addresses so they   
    NB> basically disable any incoming traffic so they can make more use of a   
    NB> single IPv4 address?   
      
   Full DUal Stack is a technology where IPv4 and IPv6 are on the same carrier as   
   "equals" next to each other. DsLite is a technology where the main connection   
   is IPv6 only and IPv4 is offered as a service via a 4in6 tunnel. DsLite is   
   always combined with CGNAT. But CGNAT is also used in other settings.   
      
   CGNAT stands for Carrier Grade NAT. A means to share IP addresses among many   
   users. It is basically the same as the use of NAT in your home network, but   
   the process takes place at the site of the provider. The range 100.64.0.0/10   
   has been set aside for the "private" side of the CGNAT network. But some   
   providers also use 10.x.x.x or some other RFC 1918 range. The use of   
   100.64.0.0/10 avoids conflicts with local adresses of the user.   
      
   Anyway, what is relevant to Fidonet is that with CGNAT the user no longer has   
   a globally routable IPv4 adress for himself. He can no longer run a server. No   
   server, no incoming calls.   
      
   Accepting incoming calls is an essential part of running a Fidonet node. It is   
   possible to run a Pvt node, but the network can not function without nodes   
   capable of accepting incomng calls.   
      
   Presently this affects only a handfull of nodes. But if this practise becomes   
   more common, it may have a large impact on Fidonet and we may indeed see the   
   numbers of nodes drop when IPv6 adoption does not rise in respons.   
      
      
   Cheers, Michiel   
      
   --- GoldED+/W32-MSVC 1.1.5-b20170303   
    * Origin: he.net certified sage (2:280/5555)   
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