MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 6695bc9f   
   PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)   
   CHRS: CP437 2   
   TZUTC: -0500   
   TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)   
   :Product: 3-Day Forecast   
   :Issued: 2026 Feb 16 0030 UTC   
   # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction    
   Center   
   #   
   A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale   
   G1).   
   The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 16-Feb 18 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale   
   G1).   
      
   NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 16-Feb 18 2026   
      
                Feb 16       Feb 17       Feb 18   
   00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         2.67        
   03-06UT       4.33         3.67         2.67        
   06-09UT       3.67         2.67         2.67        
   09-12UT       3.33         2.67         2.00        
   12-15UT       2.33         2.00         2.00        
   15-18UT       2.67         1.67         0.67        
   18-21UT       2.67         1.67         2.33        
   21-00UT       3.33         2.67         3.00        
      
   Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming   
   are likely on 16 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS influences with   
   potential weak CME enhancements as a CME from 13 Feb might pass in close   
   proximity.   
      
   B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was   
   below S-scale storm level thresholds.   
      
   Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 16-Feb 18 2026   
      
                 Feb 16  Feb 17  Feb 18   
   S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%   
      
   Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.   
   No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm   
   production is forecast.   
      
   C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast   
      
   No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.   
      
   Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 16-Feb 18 2026   
      
                 Feb 16        Feb 17        Feb 18   
   R1-R2            5%            5%            5%   
   R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%   
      
   Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No   
   significant active region flare activity is forecast.   
      
      
   --- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)   
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)   
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