MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 6695b98e   
   PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)   
   CHRS: CP437 2   
   TZUTC: -0500   
   TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)   
   :Product: 3-Day Forecast   
   :Issued: 2026 Feb 13 0030 UTC   
   # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction    
   Center   
   #   
   A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA   
   Scale levels).   
   The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 13-Feb 15 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale   
   G1).   
      
   NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 13-Feb 15 2026   
      
                Feb 13       Feb 14       Feb 15   
   00-03UT       1.67         3.00         3.67        
   03-06UT       1.33         2.67         2.67        
   06-09UT       1.33         2.00         2.67        
   09-12UT       1.33         2.67         2.33        
   12-15UT       1.33         2.00         2.33        
   15-18UT       1.33         2.67         2.33        
   18-21UT       1.67         2.67         4.67 (G1)   
   21-00UT       1.67         3.00         5.00 (G1)   
      
   Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 15 Feb due to   
   combined potential from a recurrent coronal hole and a passing coronal   
   mass ejection.   
      
   B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was   
   below S-scale storm level thresholds.   
      
   Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 13-Feb 15 2026   
      
                 Feb 13  Feb 14  Feb 15   
   S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%   
      
   Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.   
   No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm   
   production is forecast.   
      
   C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast   
      
   Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24   
   hours. The largest was at Feb 12 2026 0240 UTC.   
      
   Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 13-Feb 15 2026   
      
                 Feb 13        Feb 14        Feb 15   
   R1-R2           10%           10%           10%   
   R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%   
      
   Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor) radio   
   blackouts over 13-15 Feb due to the flare potential of multiple active   
   regions on the Suns visible disk.   
      
      
   --- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)   
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)   
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