MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 6695b1c9   
   PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)   
   CHRS: CP437 2   
   TZUTC: -0500   
   TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)   
   :Product: 3-Day Forecast   
   :Issued: 2026 Feb 04 0030 UTC   
   # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction    
   Center   
   #   
   A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA   
   Scale levels).   
   The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 04-Feb 06 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale   
   G1).   
      
   NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 04-Feb 06 2026   
      
                Feb 04       Feb 05       Feb 06   
   00-03UT       1.67         2.00         4.67 (G1)   
   03-06UT       1.67         2.00         4.00        
   06-09UT       1.33         1.67         3.67        
   09-12UT       1.33         1.33         3.67        
   12-15UT       1.33         1.33         3.67        
   15-18UT       1.33         3.00         4.00        
   18-21UT       1.33         4.33         4.00        
   21-00UT       1.67         5.00 (G1)    4.00        
      
   Rationale: G1 (Minor) storming is likely on 05-06 Feb due to the arrival   
   of the CME associated with the 01/2357 UTC X8.1 flare from Region 4366.   
      
   B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was   
   below S-scale storm level thresholds.   
      
   Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 04-Feb 06 2026   
      
                 Feb 04  Feb 05  Feb 06   
   S1 or greater   30%     30%     30%   
      
   Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a chance to exceed S1   
   (Minor) levels over 04-06 Feb due to the high eruptive potential of   
   Region 4366. The risk of a proton event will increase as the region   
   moves into a more favorable magnetic connection point in the Suns   
   western hemisphere.   
      
   C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast   
      
   Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24   
   hours. The largest was at Feb 03 2026 1408 UTC.   
      
   Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 04-Feb 06 2026   
      
                 Feb 04        Feb 05        Feb 06   
   R1-R2           80%           80%           80%   
   R3 or greater   40%           40%           40%   
      
   Rationale: Moderate to high solar activity is expected due to M-class   
   flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for the next three days with a high   
   chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) due to expected further   
   activity from AR 4366.   
      
      
   --- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)   
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)   
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