MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 66959c54   
   PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)   
   CHRS: CP437 2   
   TZUTC: -0500   
   TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)   
   :Product: 3-Day Forecast   
   :Issued: 2026 Jan 17 0030 UTC   
   # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction    
   Center   
   #   
   A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale   
   G1).   
   The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 17-Jan 19 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale   
   G1).   
      
   NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 17-Jan 19 2026   
      
                Jan 17       Jan 18       Jan 19   
   00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         3.67   
   03-06UT       4.33         3.00         3.00   
   06-09UT       4.00         3.00         3.00   
   09-12UT       3.67         3.00         3.00   
   12-15UT       3.33         3.67         3.00   
   15-18UT       3.33         3.33         3.33   
   18-21UT       3.67         4.67 (G1)    3.33   
   21-00UT       3.67         3.00         3.67   
      
   Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 17-18 Jan due   
   to anticipated influence from a coronal hole.   
      
   B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was   
   below S-scale storm level thresholds.   
      
   Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 17-Jan 19 2026   
      
                 Jan 17  Jan 18  Jan 19   
   S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%   
      
   Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.   
   No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm   
   production is forecast.   
      
   C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast   
      
   No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.   
      
   Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 17-Jan 19 2026   
      
                 Jan 17        Jan 18        Jan 19   
   R1-R2           55%           55%           55%   
   R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%   
      
   Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a   
   slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 17-19 Jan.   
      
      
      
   --- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)   
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)   
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