MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 66943d4c   
   PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.3 (Linux-x86_64)   
   CHRS: CP437 2   
   TZUTC: -0500   
   TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.3 (Linux-x86_64)   
   :Product: 3-Day Forecast   
   :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 0030 UTC   
   # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction    
   Center   
   #   
   A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA   
   Scale levels).   
   The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale   
   G1).   
      
   NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025   
      
                Nov 16       Nov 17       Nov 18   
   00-03UT       3.67         3.67         3.00   
   03-06UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    3.67   
   06-09UT       1.33         4.00         3.00   
   09-12UT       1.33         3.67         2.67   
   12-15UT       2.00         3.33         2.33   
   15-18UT       2.00         3.33         2.33   
   18-21UT       3.33         3.00         2.33   
   21-00UT       5.00 (G1)    3.00         2.00   
      
   Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due   
   to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole.   
      
   B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was   
   below S-scale storm level thresholds.   
      
   Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025   
      
                 Nov 16  Nov 17  Nov 18   
   S1 or greater   15%     10%      5%   
      
   Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar   
   radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to the eruptive potential from   
   Region 4274.   
      
   C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast   
      
   No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.   
      
   Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025   
      
                 Nov 16        Nov 17        Nov 18   
   R1-R2           60%           55%           40%   
   R3 or greater   20%           15%            5%   
      
   Rationale: R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3   
   (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274. By   
   18 Nov, there is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts due to the   
   flare potential from Region 4274.   
      
      
      
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