MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 669423a3   
   PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.3 (Linux-x86_64)   
   CHRS: CP437 2   
   TZUTC: -0500   
   TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.3 (Linux-x86_64)   
   :Product: 3-Day Forecast   
   :Issued: 2025 Nov 13 0030 UTC   
   # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction    
   Center   
   #   
   A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale   
   G5).   
   The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale   
   G4).   
      
   NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025   
      
                Nov 13       Nov 14       Nov 15   
   00-03UT       8.00 (G4)    4.67 (G1)    2.33   
   03-06UT       8.33 (G4)    4.00         3.00   
   06-09UT       7.33 (G3)    3.33         2.33   
   09-12UT       5.00 (G1)    3.67         2.00   
   12-15UT       4.33         3.33         1.33   
   15-18UT       4.00         3.00         1.33   
   18-21UT       4.33         3.00         2.00   
   21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    3.33         2.33   
      
   Rationale: G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storming remains likely, primarily   
   during the early hours of the 13 Nov UTC-day, due to ongoing CME   
   effects. Primarily G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is   
   likely thereafter, carrying on into the early hours of the 14 Nov   
   UTC-day as CME effects gradually wane.   
      
   B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was   
   above S-scale storm level thresholds.   
      
   Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025   
      
                 Nov 13  Nov 14  Nov 15   
   S1 or greater   99%     75%     45%   
      
   Rationale: S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storms are   
   expected to continue through 13 Nov before decreasing to the lower ends   
   of the S1 (Minor) threshold over the course of 14 Nov as CME influences   
   pass beyond the near-Earth environment.   
      
   C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast   
      
   No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.   
      
   Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025   
      
                 Nov 13        Nov 14        Nov 15   
   R1-R2           85%           85%           85%   
   R3 or greater   55%           55%           55%   
      
   Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radioblackouts are expected through 15   
   Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as   
   AR 4274 makes it approach towards the western limb of the solar disk.   
      
      
      
   --- MBSE BBS v1.1.3 (Linux-x86_64)   
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)   
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