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   HAM      Amateur Radio Interest      13,334 messages   

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   Message 13,157 of 13,334   
   Sean Dennis to All   
   3 Day Space Weather Forecast   
   10 Nov 25 00:19:02   
   
   MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 66940aa7   
   PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.2 (Linux-x86_64)   
   CHRS: CP437 2   
   TZUTC: -0500   
   TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.2 (Linux-x86_64)   
   :Product: 3-Day Forecast   
   :Issued: 2025 Nov 10 0030 UTC   
   # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction    
   Center   
   #   
   A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA   
   Scale levels).   
   The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 10-Nov 12 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale   
   G2).   
      
   NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 10-Nov 12 2025   
      
                Nov 10       Nov 11       Nov 12   
   00-03UT       2.67         2.67         5.67 (G2)   
   03-06UT       3.00         3.00         4.67 (G1)   
   06-09UT       3.67         2.67         4.00   
   09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         3.67   
   12-15UT       3.67         4.67 (G1)    2.67   
   15-18UT       2.67         5.00 (G1)    2.67   
   18-21UT       1.67         5.67 (G2)    1.67   
   21-00UT       2.67         5.67 (G2)    2.67   
      
   Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 10 Nov due to   
   potential influence from a CME that left the Sun on 07 Nov. G2   
   (Moderate) conditions are possible on 11-12 Nov due to anticipated   
   influence from a CME that left the Sun on 09 Nov.   
      
   B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was   
   below S-scale storm level thresholds.   
      
   Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 10-Nov 12 2025   
      
                 Nov 10  Nov 11  Nov 12   
   S1 or greater   25%     25%     25%   
      
   Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation   
   storms over 10-12 Nov due to multiple complex regions the visible solar   
   disk.   
      
   C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast   
      
   Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24   
   hours. The largest was at Nov 09 2025 0735 UTC.   
      
   Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 10-Nov 12 2025   
      
                 Nov 10        Nov 11        Nov 12   
   R1-R2           70%           70%           70%   
   R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%   
      
   Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a   
   chance for R3 (Strong), over 10-12 Nov due to multiple complex active   
   regions.   
      
      
      
   --- MBSE BBS v1.1.2 (Linux-x86_64)   
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)   
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   SEEN-BY: 5075/35   
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