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   HAM      Amateur Radio Interest      13,334 messages   

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   Message 12,905 of 13,334   
   Sean Dennis to All   
   3 Day Space Weather Forecast   
   23 Jun 25 00:19:02   
   
   MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 6692cbfa   
   PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)   
   CHRS: CP437 2   
   TZUTC: -0400   
   TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)   
   :Product: 3-Day Forecast   
   :Issued: 2025 Jun 23 0030 UTC   
   # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction    
   Center   
   #   
   A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA   
   Scale levels).   
   The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 23-Jun 25 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale   
   G1).   
      
   NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 23-Jun 25 2025   
      
                Jun 23       Jun 24       Jun 25   
   00-03UT       2.67         3.00         4.67 (G1)   
   03-06UT       2.00         3.67         4.67 (G1)   
   06-09UT       2.00         2.00         4.00   
   09-12UT       2.67         2.67         4.00   
   12-15UT       3.67         2.67         4.67 (G1)   
   15-18UT       2.67         2.67         4.67 (G1)   
   18-21UT       2.67         2.67         4.67 (G1)   
   21-00UT       3.00         2.00         4.00   
      
   Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 25 Jun   
   due to the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences.   
      
   B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was   
   below S-scale storm level thresholds.   
      
   Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 23-Jun 25 2025   
      
                 Jun 23  Jun 24  Jun 25   
   S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%   
      
   Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation   
   storms over 23-25 Jun due to eruptive potential from multiple regions on   
   the visible disk.   
      
   C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast   
      
   No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.   
      
   Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 23-Jun 25 2025   
      
                 Jun 23        Jun 24        Jun 25   
   R1-R2           45%           45%           45%   
   R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%   
      
   Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,   
   and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 23-25 Jun.   
      
      
      
   --- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)   
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)   
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