MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 6691c1c9   
   PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)   
   CHRS: CP437 2   
   TZUTC: -0400   
   TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)   
   :Product: 3-Day Forecast   
   :Issued: 2025 May 21 0030 UTC   
   # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction    
   Center   
   #   
   A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA   
   Scale levels).   
   The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 21-May 23 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA   
   Scale levels).   
      
   NOAA Kp index breakdown May 21-May 23 2025   
      
                May 21       May 22       May 23   
   00-03UT       2.67         2.67         2.00   
   03-06UT       3.33         2.00         2.00   
   06-09UT       2.67         2.33         1.67   
   09-12UT       2.00         2.33         2.67   
   12-15UT       3.33         2.33         2.67   
   15-18UT       3.00         2.33         4.00   
   18-21UT       1.67         2.33         2.67   
   21-00UT       2.00         2.67         2.67   
      
   Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.   
   Unsettled to active levels are expected through 23 May due to persistent   
   CH HSS activity.   
      
   B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was   
   below S-scale storm level thresholds.   
      
   Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 21-May 23 2025   
      
                 May 21  May 22  May 23   
   S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%   
      
   Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.   
   No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm   
   production is forecast.   
      
   C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast   
      
   No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.   
      
   Radio Blackout Forecast for May 21-May 23 2025   
      
                 May 21        May 22        May 23   
   R1-R2           35%           35%           35%   
   R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%   
      
   Rationale: Solar flare activity is expected to remain low as most   
   regions on the disk are fairly simple in their magnetic complexities.   
   There remains a 35% chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a 5% chance   
   for R3 (Strong) activity through 23 May.   
      
      
      
   --- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)   
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)   
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