MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 66909d5b   
   PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)   
   CHRS: CP437 2   
   TZUTC: -0400   
   TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)   
   :Product: 3-Day Forecast   
   :Issued: 2025 Apr 15 0030 UTC   
   # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction    
   Center   
   #   
   A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA   
   Scale levels).   
   The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 15-Apr 17 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale   
   G2).   
      
   NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 15-Apr 17 2025   
      
                Apr 15       Apr 16       Apr 17   
   00-03UT       3.67         4.00         4.33   
   03-06UT       3.00         3.00         4.33   
   06-09UT       3.00         5.00 (G1)    4.00   
   09-12UT       3.67         4.00         3.67   
   12-15UT       2.67         6.00 (G2)    4.33   
   15-18UT       2.00         4.00         3.00   
   18-21UT       2.00         5.00 (G1)    2.67   
   21-00UT       3.67         4.33         4.00   
      
   Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming is likely on 16 Apr due to   
   CME arrival from filament eruptions that left the Sun on 13 Apr.   
      
   B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast   
      
   Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was   
   below S-scale storm level thresholds.   
      
   Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 15-Apr 17 2025   
      
                 Apr 15  Apr 16  Apr 17   
   S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%   
      
   Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (minor) solar radiation   
   storms on 15-16 Apr.   
      
   C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast   
      
   Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24   
   hours. The largest was at Apr 14 2025 0650 UTC.   
      
   Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 15-Apr 17 2025   
      
                 Apr 15        Apr 16        Apr 17   
   R1-R2           80%           75%           60%   
   R3 or greater   15%           10%           10%   
      
   Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected on 16-17   
   Apr, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events. Probabilities decrease   
   slightly on 17 Apr.   
      
      
      
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    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)   
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