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                           GENERAL ARTICLES   
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                   IPv6 in 2023   
                   By Michiel van der Vlist, 2:280/5555   
      
      
   Another year has passed. When we compare the statistics as published   
   by the end of 2022 with those of today, we see that for the first   
   time he growth of IPv6 in Fidonet has stopped. Not just stopped but   
   the number of nodes has decreased from 108 to 98 nodes.   
      
      
    110 _|                                                         .   
        _|                                                    .   
    100 _|                                                              .   
        _|                                               .   
     90 _|   
        _|                                          .   
     80 _|                                     .   
        _|   
     70 _|                                .   
        _|   
     60 _|   
        _|                           .   
     50 _|   
        _|   
     40 _|                      .   
        _|   
     30 _|   
        _|                 .   
     20 _|   
        _|   
     10 _|            .   
        _|       .   
      0 _|__.___________________________________________________________   
            |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |    |   
         2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024   
      
      
   I have no simple explanation for the drop. It is probably a combina-   
   tion of factors. The general decline of Fidonet is almost certainly   
   one of them. Whatever the reasons, it is not what I had expected.   
      
   The number of nodes carrying the INO4 flag remained stable at 5. So   
   the vast majority of Fidonet nodes still supports IPv4 and apparently   
   still has a public IPv4 address. This is also against my expectation   
   that the scarcety of IPv4 addresses would have had more impact on   
   Fidonet by now. In the very long run we will of course see that when   
   the InterNet moves towards IPv6 only that the number of INO4 flags   
   rises. When we reach the point that it becomes a majority, we may   
   consider dropping the INO4 flag and introduce an IPV4 flag instead.   
   But that is still far in the future and I (or Fidonet) may not live   
   to see it.   
      
   Outside of Fidonet IPv6 continues to grow. According to Google world-   
   wide IPv6 adoptation now hovers around 45%. Almost half of those   
   visiting Google do so via IPv6.   
      
   https://www.google.com/intl/nl/ipv6/statistics.html   
      
   Some even claim the tipping point has been reached where IPv6 is now   
   the norm.   
      
   https://www.sidn.nl/en/news-and-blogs/tipping-point-reached-   
   transition-to-ipv6-enters-a-new-phase   
      
   Last year I wrote about IPv6 hoarders that sit on large blocks of IPv4   
   that they hope to sell at fantastic prices in the future. They may be   
   too late already. While the price of IPv4 has doubled from EUR 25 to   
   EUR 50 in 2021, in 2023 the price dropped to about EUR 35.   
      
   https://www.sidn.nl/en/news-and-blogs/are-we-past-peak-ipv4   
      
   So do not be surprised if this bubble will burst in the coming years.   
      
      
   Regarding my personal situation: I now have Fiber To The Home. The   
   company that runs the hardware is roling out their fiber network   
   like madness. The competition on the FTTH market is enormous and their   
   first priority seems to be to plant their flag in as many households   
   in The Netherlands as possible in order to be ahead of the competi-   
   tion. IPv6 was not on their list of priorities, the network was rolled   
   out as IPv4 only. Until about three or four month ago when they ran   
   out of IPv4...   
      
   Then two things happened: one: they started putting their customers   
   on CGNAT and two: they finally started rolling out IPv6.   
   In that order...   
      
   The switch to CGNAT was not announced in advance. Groups of customers   
   had their public IPv4 address changed overnight to an address in the   
   RFC 6598 range. (100.64.0.0/10) While the vast majority of customers   
   never even noticed, those that had port forwarding active were "not   
   amused" to say the least. Fortunately they offered a way to reverse   
   the process for those that wanted to keep a public IPv4 address but   
   the damage was done. One of he reasons they did not - and still do not   
   - informm the customers concerned in advance is that the vast majority   
   of customers would have no idea what it was all about and start over-   
   loading the help desk in panic. It was a balancing act. Later they   
   started excluding customers from the CGNAT pool that had a port   
   forward defined in the modem/router that was given to them. That   
   calmed down the uproar. I personally escaped the CGNAT. Possibly   
   because I configured a port forward minutes after the connection was   
   active or I was just lucky.   
      
   IMNSHO they should have rolled out IPv6 before CGNAT became unavoid-   
   able. But they waited until they no longer had a choice and what   
   happened next was predictable. In fact I predicted it years ago. They   
   still have to figure out the child's diseases. My FTTH connection be-   
   came active on September 14. IPv4 only. On October 6th, I suddenly got   
   IPv6. I was happy until I discovered that there was no way to open a   
   pinhole in the IPv6 firewall of the modem/router they had given me.   
   I reported this next day and the first response was that I could not   
   expect such an "advanced feature" in a simple modem/router. It took me   
   about a month to convince them that pinholing is the IPv6 way to do   
   what port forwarding does for IPv4 and that not supporting it is a   
   serious shortcoming. Finally they admitted that it is something that   
   should be fixed and will be fixed. But it has not been fixed at the   
   moment I write this and I was told there is no schedule for the fix   
   yet, but it certainly will not be fixed before 2024.   
      
   Fortunately I foresaw problems like this and I did not cancel my cable   
   connection yet. So for the time being I am dual homed and my full IPv6   
   connectivity is still intact. Yeah, those are the problems that can be   
   expected when one postpones IPv6 until one runs out of options and it   
   has to be done in a hurry. Wait with fixing the roof untill it starts   
   raining and you will get wet...   
      
   Actually I think the FTTH company missed an opportunity. Instead of   
   rolling out the network as IPv4 only first, they should have rolled it   
   out as IPv6 only with IPv4 As A Service. That would have saved them at   
   least one step in the transition. But that probably did not go well   
   with their goal of rolling out the fibres as quickly as they could...   
      
      
   Something else: (semi) public WiFi networks. In the beginning of 2023   
   whenever I came across a (semi) public WiFi network I started checking   
   for IPv6 support. The result was disappointing. In the over two dozen   
   networks that I checked over the years, only TWO of them offered IPv6.   
   One was a camping in the East of The Netherlands and the other a venue   
   in the centre of The Netherlands that is often used by the Dutch com-   
   puter club HCC. That network is maintained by the club members... It   
   means we still have a long way to go to an IPv6 only world.   
      
      
   In order not to have to tell the same story over and over again, I   
   sometimes refer people to Fidonews articles I wrote in the past.   
   Since there seems to be no easely available searcheable archive, I   
   made a list of these articles. I hope I did not miss any.   
      
   My previous Fidonews articles about IPv6:   
      
      
   FN 26:31 Jul 2009   FidoNet and IPv6   
   FN 28:04 Jan 2011   FidoNet and IPv4 depletion   
   FN 28:07 Feb 2011   Fido and IPv6 Day   
   FN 28:16 Apr 2011   APNIC runs out   
   FN 28:20 May 2011   The IPv6 echo   
   FN 28:31 Aug 2011   A SECOND LIFE FOR THE LINKSYS  Part 1   
   FN 28:32 Aug 2011   A SECOND LIFE FOR THE LINKSYS PArt 2   
   FN 28:45 Nov 2011   A "first"   
   FN 29:04 Jan 2012   World IPv6 Launch Day, 6 June 2012   
   FN 29:09 Feb 2012   A SECOND LIFE FOR THE LINKSYS Part 3   
   FN 29:38 Sep 2012   RIPE is out of IPv4 addresses.   
   FN 32:17 Apr 2015   IPv6 penetration in the nodelist   
   FN 32:26 Jun 2015   ARIN is out of IPv4 addresses.   
   FN 3:252 Dec 2015   IPv6 in Fidonet by the end of 2015   
   FN 33:02 Jan 2016   IPv6 in two thousand SIX teen   
   FN 33:06 Feb 2016   Another barrier broken.   
   FN 34:01 Jan 2017   IPv6 in 2016   
   FN 34:13 Mar 2017   SixXs Sunset 06-06-2017   
   FN 34:30 Jul 2017   TV without IPv6   
   FN 34:31 Jul 2017   DS-Lite emulation experiment v2.0   
   FN 34:37 Sep 2017   DS-Lite emulation experiment 2.0, the results   
   FN 34:33 Aug 2017   DS-Lite: a solution   
   FN 34:38 Sep 2017   DS-Lite Emulation experiment v2.1   
   FN 35:01 Jan 2018   IPv6 in 2017   
   FN 35:53 Dec 2018   IPv6 in 2018   
   FN 36:52 Dec 2019   IPv6 in 2019   
   FN 38:01 Jan 2021   IPv6 in 2020   
   FN 38:20 May 2021   100 IPv6 nodes   
   FN 39:01 Jan 2022   IPv6 in 2021   
   FN 40:01 Jan 2023   IPv6 in 2022   
      
      
   Happy IPv6 in 2024.   
      
      
      
   -----------------------------------------------------------------   
   A different kind of wish   
   Ward Dossche - 2:292/854   
      
   It is the time of wishing well, of beautiful lights, of grandchildren   
   with cramped stomachs because they have to go through a 'New Year's   
   letter', good food, warmth and "especially good health"... (at least   
   if you happen to live in this part of the world).   
      
   And yet ...   
      
   ... and yet there are times when the wishes do not turn out as they   
   were desired, when you want to be together with your loved one today   
   but that is not possible ...   
      
   Moments when everyone assumes that everything is fine with the others,   
   that you can wish anything to anyone...   
      
   ... while you are only interested in the "health" of that special   
   one who has been lying in a hospital bed for 2 months with a plethora   
   of tubes, drip-bags, needles, syringes, pills, potions, 'stuff',   
   blood samples..   
      
   And yet ...   
      
   ...and yet, despite all the misery she experiences, there is so much   
   to be grateful for.   
      
   There is a roof over our heads, we have food when we are hungry, we   
   can enjoy the best medical care available, there are friends, family,   
   children, grandchildren... we have warmth when the cold comes, there   
   is safe drinking water, we have the freedom to express our opinions...   
   there is peace... here.   
      
   We are doing well, despite everything ...   
      
   Happy New Year ... Tine ...... Come home soon ... <3 ...   
      
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   --- Azure/NewsPrep 3.0   
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