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   Russia is now the world's biggest rogue state   
   By Ward Dossche - 2:292/854   
      
       Based on an article I picked-up somewhere,   
       too good to pass up and annotated / changed   
       adapted for clarity.   
      
   It will take years, perhaps even decades, before all the consequences   
   of February 24, 2022 become clear. It is finally dawning that a   
   European country is under attack by a dictator.   
      
   Why do we make the same mistake over and over? Well, that's only a   
   problem in the Balkans, we say, until a murder in Sarajevo triggers   
   World War I. Ah, that Hitler is threatening Czechoslovakia is "a   
   quarrel in a country far away from here between people about whom we   
   know nothing," as Neville Chamberlain said. And well, Stalin's robbery   
   of distant Poland after World War II was none of our business until we   
   were in the Cold War. We did it again, not waking up until it was too   
   late and seeing the full implications of Putin's capture of Crimea in   
   2014. And so now February 24, 2022 is going down in the history books.   
   Here we stand again, clothed in nothing but the rags of our lost   
   illusions.   
      
   At such times we need courage and fortitude, but also wisdom. And make   
   sure to choose the right words. This is not World War III. But it is   
   already much more serious than the Soviet invasions of Hungary in 1956   
   and of Czechoslovakia in 1968. The five wars in the former Yugoslavia   
   were terrible, but the international risks were less great. There were   
   brave resistance fighters in Budapest in 1956, but Ukraine today is a   
   fully independent and sovereign state with a large army and a   
   population that declares it will fight back. If they don't resist,   
   this will be an occupation. If they do, this will be the biggest war   
   in Europe since 1945.   
      
   The Ukrainians face one of the strongest armies in the world,   
   well-trained and equipped conventional troops and about 6,000 nuclear   
   weapons. While Ukraine many years ago was the 3rd largest nuke-power   
   in the world, it dropped it in exchange for safety. Russia is now the   
   world's biggest rogue state, commanded by a president who ... judging   
   by his hysterical diatribe the previous week ... has lost all sense of   
   rationality, which dictators always do sooner or later. To be clear,   
   when, in his Thursday morning declaration of war, he threatened anyone   
   "who stood in his way" with "consequences never seen before in   
   history," he was indeed talking about a nuclear attack.   
      
   In the end, the Russians themselves will have to stand up and say   
   they've had enough.   
      
   There will come a time to reflect on our past mistakes. If we had made   
   a serious effort in 2014 to help Ukraine defend itself, if Europe had   
   been less dependent on Russia for its energy, if we had drained the   
   dirty Russian money swamp of London, if we had imposed more sanctions,   
   we might be better off now. But we must now start from where we are.   
      
   In the early fog of the war that has just begun, there are several   
   things we need to do in Europe and the West. We must strengthen the   
   defense of every square meter of NATO territory against any possible   
   attack, cyber attack or hybrid attack. This will be especially   
   necessary on the eastern borders with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. For   
   70 years, Western Europe's security has been built on the "one for   
   all, all for one" principle of the NATO treaty. Like it or not, the   
   security of London is inextricably linked with that of the Estonian   
   city of Narva, that of Berlin, of Bialystok in Poland, Rome or   
   Cluj-Napoca in Romania.   
      
   We must provide all possible support to the Ukrainians. There is only   
   one threshold that we must not cross: we cannot enter an outright war   
   with Russia.   
      
   The Ukrainians who choose to stay and resist will do so with all the   
   military and civilian resources at their disposal, to defend the   
   freedom of their country. That is their absolute right, legally and   
   morally. Inevitably, the limited international response will bitterly   
   disappoint them. Like the Czechs in 1968, the Poles in 1945 and the   
   Hungarians in 1956, the Ukrainians will say that we, their fellow   
   Europeans, are abandoning them.   
      
   Yet we can still do something. We can continue to supply weapons,   
   communications technology, and other logistics equipment to a country   
   that legitimately responds to gun violence with gun violence. In the   
   slightly longer term, we can support resistance movements that fight   
   the occupying forces and a possible puppet government. And we must be   
   ready to receive the flood of Ukrainian refugees.   
      
   The sanctions we are imposing on Russia must also go beyond what is   
   before us. So far-reaching economic measures, but also expulsions of   
   Russians who have any link with the Putin regime. With his $600   
   billion war treasury and his hand on the gas tap to Europe, Putin can   
   put up with it for a while, so it will take some time for those   
   sanctions to take effect.   
      
   Ultimately, the Russians themselves will have to stand up and say   
   they've had enough. Nobel laureate Dmitri Muratov and countless others   
   have already expressed their horror at this war. In that regard, read   
   the touching story of Ukrainian activist Natalia Gumanyuk, about a   
   Russian journalist who was crying on the phone while Russian tanks   
   rolled into her country. That horror will only increase once the   
   bodies of young Russians return in body bags, and once the damage to   
   Russia's economy and reputation is revealed. After all, the first and   
   last victims of Putin are always the Russians themselves.   
      
   Which brings us to a final, crucial point. We must prepare for a long   
   conflict. It will take years, perhaps even decades, for all the   
   consequences of February 24, 2022 to become clear. In the short term,   
   things are definitely not looking good for Ukraine.   
      
   But I am reminded of the delightful title of a book about the   
   Hungarian Revolution of 1956: "The Victory of Defeat". By now, just   
   about everyone in the West has understood that Ukraine is a European   
   country that is being attacked and dismembered by a dictator. Today,   
   Kiev is teeming with journalists from all over the world. That   
   experience will change their image of Ukraine forever. After the end   
   of the Cold War we harboured quite a few illusions, but now we are   
   reminded again how countries should put themselves on the mental   
   European map:   
      
   ....with blood, sweat and tears.   
      
      
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