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Hi, Anton Shepelev! - > Alexander Koryagin
I read your message from 24.04.2020 02:31
ak>>>> And also is clear that if you keep quarantine and the number of
ak>>>> positively tested people has been rocketing after the virus
ak>>>> incubation period passed, it means that the virus is already
ak>>>> widespread and the quarantine has no effect.
AS>>> How do you know that? In my opinion, without the quarrantine and
AS>>> self-isolation the figures whould have been even worse.
ak>> The idea is this -- let them suppose we have at the start 10000
ak>> infected people hidden in Moscow. The incubation period of the
ak>> covid19 is 2 weeks. If we put the city on quarantine we expect
ak>> that in 2 weeks sick people will either be well or they end up in
ak>> hospital.
AS> I fear you are misusing terms again. Nobody put Moscow on
AS> quarantine.
What is quarantine according to you?
ak>> But after the quarantine they have 4-5 thousand infected people
ak>> per 60 thousand tests every day. It means the epidemic cannot be
ak>> controlled by the quarantine.
AS> Again, no global quarantine has been put in effect in Moscow. Your
AS> conclusion that it does not work from the statistics is too
AS> simplistic. I asked:
AS>>> How do you know that? In my opinion, without the quarrantine and
AS>>> self-isolation the figures whould have been even worse.
AS> What is your answer?
There is a big doubt about it. The average death toll can be higher but
it is important how to count deaths. There are millions of people who
die every year from variety of illnesses. If a person with flu dies from
diabetes or oncology, cardiovascular disease etc -- only crazy people
can put such deaths on flu's account.
Another matter with covid - now WHO tells us that if a person dies and
he/she has a covid virus - it should be treated as a death from covid.
That's why many countries have so different statistics. Now Russia also
began count it in such a way, and death toll in Russia began growing
quickly. It is a dirty trick.
I have already explained to you the quarantine idea. It can be tried.
But if after this measure covid tests continue to show mass infection --
such quarantine should be lifted because it is useless and cripples
economy. It means that huge masses of the police, National Guard troops,
Government structures, workers of important plants, shops who keep
working, and usual people who shopping -- are, all together, a perfect
engine to spread covid19.
Another factor is that there are huge masses of infected/recovered
people who don't know that they were infected/ill with covid19, so they
are out of statistics. Vast majority of them is without symptoms or
almost without them. Nobody tested them. These people are the main
engine of the infection. But we know that if 70% of the population catch
the illness and recover the epidemic stops.
So we should isolate old or sick people and let other people live a
normal life. In this case the average year death toll will be as a
normal death toll from flu/pneumonia.
The excessive deaths in Italy and the US are also because of
unpreparedness and lack of knowledge how to defend themselves from the
virus. But now the safe measures for old and sick people can be
implemented adequately.
ak>> They have created panic, psychosis [...]
AS> Again, I live in the Moscow region and see no sings of a panic or
AS> psychosis. On the contrary -- people are calm and too careless, too
AS> well-at-ease.
Panic was created not for people -- it is a cover, a justification for
freedom to be giving away.
ak>> Now KGB is creating a system to control every sneeze and test it.
AS> KGB? I am sure it was the government in open cooperation with the
AS> medical institutions.
There are medical specialists who think in other way, but they are not
allowed on state TV.
ak>> Nowdays people are arrested during meetings for democracy, then
ak>> they will be arrested right after leaving their flats.
AS> I once saw a meeting summouned by one Navalnyj. He had thosands of
AS> befuddled teenages chant in rythm: "Putin is a thief! Putin is a
AS> thief!". That is not was not a constructive meeting but a low and
AS> amoral mass manipulation. Such meetings should not be allowed at
AS> all. So it all depends on what people say and do at the meeting,
AS> and!?! democracy' is a hackneyed, inflated, and abused word.
Democracy in Russia was shot and killed from tanks in 1993. The
impotent, pocket state Duma was created, all free thinking media were
closed. People again started to eat soup with bast shoes and constantly
elect their main shoemaker. Now nobody knows how to remove this
shoemaker from power. No wonder many young people are crazy about the
situation.
ak>> They want to be able to control every person using millions of
ak>> cameras and other spying tricks.
AS> What kind of control do you mean? Survelliance cameras are indeed
AS> widely used and sometimes abused -- all over the world.
ak>> For instance, they enforce people to install spy apps in their
ak>> smartphones.
AS> Say what? A Russian citizen is not obliged to own even a cell
AS> phone! I have a cell phone, but no smartphone. I haven't heard that
AS> anybody was obliged to intall a spying program on their smartphone,
AS> althoug such programs are preinstalled in plenty on Google and
AS> Apple smarphones.
This app gives people a pass to go out. You cannot even ride your own
car without it. But read the comments in Google Play.
AS> Not at all. Nobody is going to hire a commision of independent
AS> experts to estimate the proximity of other people througout the
AS> course of every careless person's walk. The requirement is safe and
AS> simple: you may leave your home only if you a have a need to. If
AS> you dislike it, propose your own, and it better be clear,
AS> unambiguous, and verifiable. Yes, it must be verifieable, or it is
AS> fluff.
Under the constitution people can be ordered such things only after
Emergency status has been introduced in the country. So all the orders
which we hear now are completely lawlessness, and KGB and Putin do what
occur to them.
AS> Some do it less, some more carefully, and some not at all. Self-
AS> isolation can never be perfect, but it decreases social interation,
AS> slows down the propagation of the virus, and relieves the strain on
AS> the medical system, letting them save more lives by keeping the
AS> load within their capacity.
I have heard enough lie from the state TV. The vast majority of people
who put into infectious diseases hospitals have mild or no symptoms of
covid.
Bye, Anton!
Alexander Koryagin
english_tutor 2020
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