MSGID: 2:221/6.0 5ea2255c   
   REPLY: 2:221/6.0 5ea1f8ac   
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   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2020-04-15   
   Alexander Koryagin - Anton Shepelev:   
      
   > Hi, Anton Shepelev! ->Alexander Koryagin   
   > I read your message from 22.04.2020 16:43   
   >   
   >  ak>> And also is clear that if you keep quarantine and the   
   >  ak>> number of positively tested people has been rocketing after   
   >  ak>> the virus incubation period passed, it means that the virus   
   >  ak>> is already widespread and the quarantine has no effect.   
   >   
   >  AS> How do you know that? In my opinion, without the quarrantine   
   >  AS> and self-isolation the figures whould have been even worse.   
   >   
   > The idea is this -- let them suppose we have at the start 10000   
   > infected people hidden in Moscow. The incubation period of the   
   > covid19 is 2 weeks. If we put the city on quarantine we expect   
   > that in 2 weeks sick people will either be well or they end up in   
   > hospital.   
      
   I fear you are misusing terms again. Nobody put Moscow on   
   quarantine. And even if they had, the result would not have been   
   so perfect as you describe, for in matters sociological there is   
   always the same kind of "friction" that Clausewits described with   
   regard to war.   
      
   > But after the quarantine they have 4-5 thousand infected people   
   > per 60 thousand tests every day. It means the epidemic cannot be   
   > controlled by the quarantine.   
      
   Again, no global quarantine has been put in effect in Moscow. Your   
   conclusion that it does not work from the statistics is too   
   simplistic. I asked:   
      
   >  AS> How do you know that? In my opinion, without the quarrantine   
   >  AS> and self-isolation the figures whould have been even worse.   
      
   What is your answer?   
      
   > Probably because too many people continue working, shopping etc.   
   > It means we should do as they do in Sweden and allow people to   
   > overcome illness and get immunity.   
      
   And sacrifice about one percent of the population? Simply let them   
   die, or even kill them? Pay heed to how many young people in Russia   
   have been put on artificial lung ventilation already.   
      
   >  ak>>>> The most crazy thing in it is that Putin has imposed the   
   >  ak>>>> same measures across all Russia.   
   >   
   >  AS> No, he has not. He has left a lot of freedom for   
   >  AS> municipalities, with exactly the purpose of adapting the   
   >  AS> measures to the situations in earch region.   
   >   
   > There is no such freedom in Russia.   
      
   It has been officially granted to governors, and we have heard in   
   the news of the different measures taken in different regions. You   
   are simply wrong.   
      
   > And there are no local leaders who can do things on their own.   
      
   Depends on what things you mean. I single counterexample can prove   
   you wrong.   
      
   > It is safe for them to copy Moscow measures.   
      
   I think it is not safe but stupid, and whoever does so put his   
   office at risk.   
      
   >  ak>> Covid19's death toll in Russia is 0.8% of the number of   
   >  ak>> infected people. Most people have the easy form of it of   
   >  ak>> have no symptoms at all. There can be many reasons for   
   >  ak>> that, but what is clear that Russian authority prefer not   
   >  ak>> to note this fact.   
   >   
   >  AS> In what way do they overlook this fact?   
   >   
   > They try to persuade us that in Russia the situation is like in   
   > Italy and Spain.   
      
   I have never witnessed this persuation.   
      
   > They have created panic, psychosis [...]   
      
   Again, I live in the Moscow region and see no sings of a panic or   
   psychosis. On the contrary -- people are calm and too careless, too   
   well-at-ease.   
      
   On the other hand, a relative of mine is currently in hospital, and   
   I can tell you that the measures in the state medicine institutions   
   are super strict!   
      
   > and under this gravy they make from Russia a state fully   
   > controlled by the KGB and police.   
      
   Sounds like a conspiracy theory :-)   
      
   > Yesterday for instance, they created a new law for increasing   
   > police power.   
      
   Haven't heard of it, can't comment. How do you like the changes to   
   our constitution instead? Is it not some progress since the   
   previous version, dictated by our defeaters in the cold war?   
      
   >  ak>> It is a very convenient moment for Putin to extend his grip   
   >  ak>> on the country.   
   >   
   >  AS> In what way?   
   >   
   > Now KGB is creating a system to control every sneeze and test it.   
      
   KGB? I am sure it was the government in open cooperation with   
   the medical institutions.   
      
   > Nowdays people are arrested during meetings for democracy, then   
   > they will be arrested right after leaving their flats.   
      
   I once saw a meeting summouned by one Navalnyj. He had thosands of   
   befuddled teenages chant in rythm: "Putin is a thief! Putin is a   
   thief!". That is not was not a constructive meeting but a low and   
   amoral mass manipulation. Such meetings should not be allowed at   
   all. So it all depends on what people say and do at the meeting,   
   and `democracy' is a hackneyed, inflated, and abused word.   
      
   > They want to be able to control every person using millions of   
   > cameras and other spying tricks.   
      
   What kind of control do you mean? Survelliance cameras are indeed   
   widely used and sometimes abused -- all over the world.   
      
   > For instance, they enforce people to install spy apps in their   
   > smartphones.   
      
   Say what? A Russian citizen is not obliged to own even a cell phone!   
   I have a cell phone, but no smartphone. I haven't heard that anybody   
   was obliged to intall a spying program on their smartphone, althoug   
   such programs are preinstalled in plenty on Google and Apple   
   smarphones.   
      
   People under quarantine with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 are   
   obliged to use a tracking application installed on a smartphone for   
   the police to control their observance of the quarantine. It is not   
   a spy app, but an openly declared tracking system. I don't even   
   understand how it is supposed to work if you "forget" your phone at   
   home. But it is a grave matter on which the health and lives of many   
   people depend. And since we have heard stories of infected people   
   escape the quaranine, the measure is more than justified.   
      
   >  AS> And was he not violating self-isolation? Had he not been   
   >  AS> warned of the consiquences of this violation?   
   >   
   > Every measure must be justified.   
      
   A matter of life or death is good-enough justification for me.   
      
   >  AS> There is a difference: you can live without a relaxing   
   >  AS> saunter, but you cannot live without food or some crucial   
   >  AS> medicine. It is for the same reason that you may walk your   
   >  AS> dog but may not your child.   
   >   
   > Now everybody uses a safe distance 1.5 meters.   
      
   Everybody? Always? Come on! People are not robots executing a   
   well-debugged program. Narrow coridors in multiflat buildings and   
   narrow valleys in grocery stores simply don't allow it, nor does   
   the sheer amount of people in those stores.   
      
   > If person is alone and there is no people around 50 meters from   
   > him it is imbecility to arrest him or make out a fine.   
      
   Not at all. Nobody is going to hire a commision of independent   
   experts to estimate the proximity of other people througout the   
   course of every careless person's walk. The requirement is safe and   
   simple: you may leave your home only if you a have a need to.   
   If you dislike it, propose your own, and it better be clear,   
   unambiguous, and verifiable. Yes, it must be verifieable, or it is   
   fluff.   
      
   >  AS> Not at all, but you confuse the relative death rate and the   
   >  AS> absolute death toll. The death rate from COVID-19 is thirty   
   >  AS> of so time hither than that of the common seasonal flu,   
   >  AS> which means that the coronavirus is thirty times the deadler!   
   >   
   > It is not correct. In the US covid19 will hardly overpass the   
   > mentioned number 80.5 thousand -- the death toll from flu and   
   > pneumonia in 2017. In Russia his death toll much low that in the   
   > US.   
      
   I said you confuse death rate and death toll, but in this other   
   paragraph, which does not answer my remark, you continue to confuse   
   them.   
      
   >  ak>>>> Although we have now quite many infected people and a   
   >  ak>>>> very low death rate among them. But nobody pays   
   >  aK>>>> attention at the statistics.   
   >   
   >  AS> How do you know that, really?   
   >   
   > Well look at the statistic at   
   > https://koronavirus-ncov.ru/koronavirus-v-rossii-v-cifrah   
   > Most people are ill without symptoms; the death percentage is   
   > 0.8%. And it is clear that the real number of the infected people   
   > many times higher.   
      
   As is the nubmer of people who *will* die, but we have to deal with   
   the present moment and the data we do have.   
      
   > So the death toll in Russia is smaller than 0.8%.   
      
   It is not the right way to estimate death rate. The right way is to   
   divide the number confirmed deaths from COVID-19 by the total   
   number of confirmed contractions. By the end of the pandemic, the   
   ratio will stabilise and finalise, and you shall see how wrong or   
   right the current figures are.   
      
   >  AS> No, death toll is simply the number of people who have died,   
   >  AS> it has nothing to do with how many have contracted COVID and   
   >  AS> recovered.   
   >   
   > But how do _you_ count the death percentage?   
      
   See above.   
      
   >  ak>> It is well known that majority of people don't have any   
   >  ak>> symptoms while being ill with COVID19 or they are ill in an   
   >  ak>> easy form.   
   >   
   >  AS> Which makes self-isolation the more important, does it not?   
   >   
   > In reality there is no self-isolation. There are a lot of people   
   > who continue to work, all people continue interact with each   
   > other, visit shops etc.   
      
   Some do it less, some more carefully, and some not at all.   
   Self-isolation can never be perfect, but it decreases social   
   interation, slows down the propagation of the virus, and relieves   
   the strain on the medical system, letting them save more lives by   
   keeping the load within their capacity.   
      
   > The epidemic has been going on as it went before. It stops soon,   
   > right after the moment when a more than 70% population have had   
   > it.   
      
   How soon is that? Anyway, I hope a vaccine is found sooner.   
      
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