MSGID: 2:221/6.0 5ea1f8ac   
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   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2020-04-15   
   Hi, Anton Shepelev! ->Alexander Koryagin   
   I read your message from 22.04.2020 16:43   
      
    ak>> And also is clear that if you keep quarantine and the number of   
    ak>> positively tested people has been rocketing after the virus   
    ak>> incubation period passed, it means that the virus is already   
    ak>> widespread and the quarantine has no effect.   
      
    AS> How do you know that? In my opinion, without the quarrantine and   
    AS> self-isolation the figures whould have been even worse.   
      
   The idea is this -- let them suppose we have at the start 10000 infected   
   people hidden in Moscow. The incubation period of the covid19 is 2   
   weeks. If we put the city on quarantine we expect that in 2 weeks sick   
   people will either be well or they end up in hospital. But after the   
   quarantine they have 4-5 thousand infected people per 60 thousand tests   
   every day. It means the epidemic cannot be controlled by the quarantine.   
   Probably because too many people continue working, shopping etc. It   
   means we should do as they do in Sweden and allow people to overcome   
   illness and get immunity. Quarantine doesn't work.   
      
    ak>>>> The most crazy thing in it is that Putin has imposed the same   
    ak>>>> measures across all Russia.   
      
    AS> No, he has not. He has left a lot of freedom for municipalities,   
    AS> with exactly the purpose of adapting the measures to the situations   
    AS> in earch region.   
      
   There is no such freedom in Russia. And there are no local leaders who   
   can do things on their own. It is safe for them to copy Moscow measures.   
      
    AH>>> That may not be such a bad idea. We heard about a guy who   
    AH>>> returned to the Northwest Territories after a trip through BC &   
    AH>>> Alberta... and infected others in his home town. Population   
    AH>>> density is not the only risk factor.   
      
    ak>> Covid19's death toll in Russia is 0.8% of the number of infected   
    ak>> people. Most people have the easy form of it of have no symptoms   
    ak>> at all. There can be many reasons for that, but what is clear that   
    ak>> Russian authority prefer not to note this fact.   
      
    AS> In what way do they overlook this fact?   
      
   They try to persuade us that in Russia the situation is like in Italy   
   and Spain. They have created panic, psychosis and under this gravy they   
   make from Russia a state fully controlled by the KGB and police.   
   Yesterday for instance, they created a new law for increasing police power.   
      
    ak>> It is a very convenient moment for Putin to extend his grip on the   
    ak>> country.   
      
    AS> In what way?   
      
   Now KGB is creating a system to control every sneeze and test it.   
   Nowdays people are arrested during meetings for democracy, then they   
   will be arrested right after leaving their flats. They want to be able   
   to control every person using millions of cameras and other spying   
   tricks. For instance, they enforce people to install spy apps in their   
   smartphones.   
      
    ak>>>> I even heard a story about a man who stroll alone along   
    aK>>>> the sea, and he was caught by the police, for violating   
    ak>>>> self isolation.   
      
    AS> And was he not violating self-isolation? Had he not been warned of   
    AS> the consiquences of this violation?   
      
   Every measure must be justified.   
      
    ak>> Yes, we can go to shop. But what is more dangerous - a single man   
    ak>> walking along the sea or people from all the town shopping in the   
    ak>> same shop? Where the limit of craziness?   
      
    AS> There is a difference: you can live without a relaxing saunter, but   
    AS> you cannot live without food or some crucial medicine. It is for   
    AS> the same reason that you may walk your dog but may not your child.   
      
   Now everybody uses a safe distance 1.5 meters. If person is alone and   
   there is no people around 50 meters from him it is imbecility to arrest   
   him or make out a fine.   
      
    ak>> But if we look at numbers:   
      
    ak>> https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/united-states-influenza-pneumonia   
    ak>> The death toll from influenza and pneumonia is 80.5 thousand   
    ak>> people per season (the number of 2017). 220 people per day. But   
    ak>> every epidemic as we know from history lasts usually 2 months. It   
    ak>> means that during the days of the epidemic the death toll is 6   
    ak>> times higher than average death toll! I.E 1323 person per day.   
      
    ak>> Now suppose the American media, in 2017, would have announced that   
    ak>> the US has an awful epidemic, and every day the country is going   
    ak>> to lose 1300 people per day during three months!!! (some days more   
    ak>> some days less). Will it be hysteria and panic? No doubt about   
    ak>> that. The epidemic of COVID19 is a media epidemic.   
      
    AS> Not at all, but you confuse the relative death rate and the   
    AS> absolute death toll. The death rate from COVID-19 is thirty of so   
    AS> time hither than that of the common seasonal flu, which means that   
    AS> the coronavirus is thirty times the deadler!   
      
   It is not correct. In the US covid19 will hardly overpass the mentioned   
   number 80.5 thousand -- the death toll from flu and pneumonia in 2017.   
   In Russia his death toll much low that in the US.   
      
    ak>>>> Although we have now quite many infected people and a very low   
    ak>>>> death rate among them. But nobody pays   
    aK>>>> attention at the statistics.   
      
    AS> How do you know that, really?   
      
   Well look at the statistic at   
   https://koronavirus-ncov.ru/koronavirus-v-rossii-v-cifrah   
   Most people are ill without symptoms; the death percentage is 0.8%. And   
   it is clear that the real number of the infected people many times   
   higher. So the death toll in Russia is smaller than 0.8%.   
      
    AH>>> I find the statistics confusing at times because we still have   
    AH>>> much to learn about this disease. But there's some evidence that   
    AH>>> the death rate is lower in jurisdictions where the authorities   
    AH>>> have been more proactive....   
      
    ak>> It doesn't matter how much people is in quarantine. The death toll   
    ak>> is measured when we take the number of infected+recovered people   
    ak>> and the number of people who died.   
      
    AS> No, death toll is simply the number of people who have died, it has   
    AS> nothing to do with how many have contracted COVID and recovered.   
      
   But how do _you_ count the death percentage?   
      
    ak>> It is well known that majority of people don't have any symptoms   
    ak>> while being ill with COVID19 or they are ill in an easy form.   
      
    AS> Which makes self-isolation the more important, does it not?   
      
   In reality there is no self-isolation. There are a lot of people who   
   continue to work, all people continue interact with each other, visit   
   shops etc. The epidemic has been going on as it went before. It stops   
   soon, right after the moment when a more than 70% population have had it.   
      
   Bye, Anton!   
   Alexander Koryagin   
   english_tutor 2020   
      
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