MSGID: 2:221/6.0 5ea049f8   
   REPLY: 2:221/6.0 5ea041f6   
   PID: SmapiNNTPd/Linux/IPv6 1.3 20200418   
   EID: Sylpheed 3.7.0 (GTK+ 2.24.32; arm-unknown-linux-gnueabihf)   
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   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2020-04-15   
   Alexander Koryagin - Ardith Hinton:   
   >   
   > And also is clear that if you keep quarantine and the number of   
   > positively tested people has been rocketing after the virus   
   > incubation period passed, it means that the virus is already   
   > widespread and the quarantine has no effect.   
      
   How do you know that?  In my opinion, without the quarrantine and   
   self-isolation the figures whould have been even worse.   
      
   > The tests only light the limited area of the problem, as the   
   > light spot of a flashlight is getting bigger on the floor while   
   > you make the light cone wider.   
      
   I agree, but that is all we can do, and then extrapolate both in   
   space and time.   
      
   >  ak>> The most crazy thing in it is that Putin has imposed the   
   >  ak>> same measures across all Russia.   
      
   No, he has not. He has left a lot of freedom for municipalities,   
   with exactly the purpose of adapting the measures to the situations   
   in earch region.   
      
   >  AH> That may not be such a bad idea. We heard about a guy who   
   >  AH> returned to the Northwest Territories after a trip through   
   >  AH> BC & Alberta... and infected others in his home town.   
   >  AH> Population density is not the only risk factor.   
   >   
   > Covid19's death toll in Russia is 0.8% of the number of infected   
   > people. Most people have the easy form of it of have no symptoms   
   > at all. There can be many reasons for that, but what is clear   
   > that Russian authority prefer not to note this fact.   
      
   In what way do they overlook this fact?   
      
   > It is a very convenient moment for Putin to extend his grip on   
   > the country.   
      
   In what way?   
      
   >  ak>> I even heard a story about a man who stroll alone along   
   >  aK>> the sea, and he was caught by the police, for violating   
   >  ak>> self isolation.   
      
   And was he not violating self-isolation? Had he not been warned of   
   the consiquences of this violation?   
      
   > Yes, we can go to shop. But what is more dangerous - a single man   
   > walking along the sea or people from all the town shoping in the   
   > same shop? Where the limit of craziness?   
      
   There is a difference: you can live without a relaxing saunter,   
   but you cannot live without food or some crucial medicine. It is   
   for the same reason that you may walk your dog but may not your   
   child.   
      
   > But if we look at numbers:   
   >   
   > https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/united-states-influenza-pneumonia   
   > The death toll from influenza and pneumonia is 80.5 thousand   
   > people per season (the number of 2017). 220 people per day. But   
   > every epidemic as we know from history lasts usually 2 months. It   
   > means that during the days of the epidemic the death toll is 6   
   > times higher than average death toll! I.E 1323 person per day.   
   >   
   > Now suppose the American media, in 2017, would have announced   
   > that the US has an awful epidemic, and every day the country is   
   > going to lose 1300 people per day during three months!!! (some   
   > days more some days less). Will it be hysteria and panic? No   
   > doubt about that. The epidemic of COVID19 is a media epidemic.   
      
   Not at all, but you confuse the relative death rate and the   
   absolute death toll. The death rate from COVID-19 is thirty of so   
   time hither than that of the common seasonal flu, which means that   
   the coronavirus is thirty times the deadler!   
      
   >  ak>> Although we have now quite many infected people and a very   
   >  ak>> low death rate among them. But nobody pays   
   >  aK>> attention at the statistics.   
      
   How do you know that, really?   
      
   >  AH> I find the statistics confusing at times because we still   
   >  AH> have much to learn about this disease. But there's some   
   >  AH> evidence that the death rate is lower in jurisdictions where   
   >  AH> the authorities have been more proactive....   
   >   
   > It doesn't matter how much people is in quarantine. The death   
   > toll is measured when we take the number of infected+recovered   
   > people and the number of people who died.   
      
   No, death toll is simply the number of people who have died, it has   
   nothing to do with how many have contracted COVID and recovered.   
      
   > It is well known that majority of people don't have any   
   > symptoms while being ill with COVID19 or they are ill in an easy   
   > form.   
      
   Which makes self-isolation the more important, does it not?   
      
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