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   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2020-04-15   
   Hi, Ardith Hinton! - >Alexander Koryagin   
   I read your message from 20.04.2020 21:24   
      
    AH>> And you? I hear Moscow is affected as well... (sigh).   
    ak>> For a while I am well.   
    AH> Glad to hear it. Thus far... touch wood... so are we. Ex-Brits may   
    AH> say "knock on wood", but the meaning is the same. The objective is   
    AH> to frighten off evil spirits who enjoy messing with success.   
      
   Do you spit over your left shoulder? ;)   
      
    ak>> Although, I think that deaths from a long quarantine can be more   
    ak>> numerable than from the virus. Working was the thing that kept   
    ak>> relatives apart. (black humour).   
      
    AH> Yes, we've heard other comments to much the same effect. :-))   
      
   And also is clear that if you keep quarantine and the number of   
   positively tested people has been rocketing after the virus incubation   
   period passed, it means that the virus is already widespread and the   
   quarantine has no effect. The tests only light the limited area of the   
   problem, as the light spot of a flashlight is getting bigger on the   
   floor while you make the light cone wider.   
      
    ak>> The most crazy thing in it is that Putin has imposed the same   
    ak>> measures across all Russia.   
      
    AH> That may not be such a bad idea. We heard about a guy who returned   
    AH> to the Northwest Territories after a trip through BC & Alberta...   
    AH> and infected others in his home town. Population density is not the   
    AH> only risk factor.   
      
   Covid19's death toll in Russia is 0.8% of the number of infected people.   
   Most people have the easy form of it of have no symptoms at all. There   
   can be many reasons for that, but what is clear that Russian authority   
   prefer not to note this fact. It is a very convenient moment for Putin   
   to extend his grip on the country.   
      
    ak>> I even heard a story about a man who stroll alone along   
    aK>> the sea, and he was caught by the police, for violating   
    ak>> self isolation.   
      
    AH> Hmm. The difference between quarantine & self-isolation, AFAIC, is   
    AH> that if you're quarantined you may not leave your home for any   
    AH> reason. If you are voluntarily self-isolating the degree of   
    AH> strictness is more flexible. You can shop for groceries or take a   
    AH> walk as long as you remain at a safe distance (currently defined as   
    AH> 6 feet or 2 metres) from anybody who doesn't live in the same   
    AH> household. Or you can eagerly accept a friend's offer to add a few   
    AH> items to their shopping cart & deliver them to your place on their   
    AH> way home....   
      
   Yes, we can go to shop. But what is more dangerous - a single man   
   walking along the sea or people from all the town shoping in the same   
   shop? Where the limit of craziness?   
      
    ak>> Thank God, for a while it is a house arrest. But the measures are   
    ak>> crazy and excessive. As Putin says "we react in advance".   
      
    AH> Another bit of gallows humour:   
      
    AH> Q. (looking at the family dog) Mom, why are humans wearing muzzles?   
    AH> A. Because they're not bright enough to learn "sit" and "stay".   
      
   Well, it is funny. But if we look at numbers:   
      
   https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/united-states-influenza-pneumonia   
   The death toll from influenza and pneumonia is 80.5 thousand people per   
   season (the number of 2017). 220 people per day. But every epidemic as   
   we know from history lasts usually 2 months. It means that during the   
   days of the epidemic the death toll is 6 times higher than average death   
   toll! I.E 1323 person per day.   
      
   Now suppose the American media, in 2017, would have announced that the   
   US has an awful epidemic, and every day the country is going to lose   
   1300 people per day during three months!!! (some days more some days   
   less). Will it be hysteria and panic? No doubt about that. The epidemic   
   of COVID19 is a media epidemic.   
      
    AH> What seems excessive to some folk may not be to others. Awhile ago   
    AH> the police in Victoria BC responded to complaints from the   
    AH> neighbours about a noisy party which continued until well after   
    AH> 11:00 PM. The participants were fined. Some apparently felt they   
    AH> deserved a treat after being good for a few days....: - Q   
      
   Maybe you heard recently that one Russian man shot and killed five   
   people under his windows because they were too noisy.   
   https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/04/05/russian-man-shoots-kil   
   s-5-neighbors-over-noise-complaint-reports-a69874   
   or   
   https://is.gd/Iflmln   
      
    ak>> Although we have now quite many infected people and a very low   
    ak>> death rate among them. But nobody pays   
    aK>> attention at the statistics.   
      
    AH> I find the statistics confusing at times because we still have much   
    AH> to learn about this disease. But there's some evidence that the   
    AH> death rate is lower in jurisdictions where the authorities have   
    AH> been more proactive....   
      
   It doesn't matter how much people is in quarantine. The death toll is   
   measured when we take the number of infected+recovered people and the   
   number of people who died. It is well known that majority of people   
   don't have any symptoms while being ill with COVID19 or they are ill in   
   an easy form.   
      
   Bye, Ardith!   
   Alexander Koryagin   
   english_tutor 2020   
      
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