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   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Record-breaking heat in the summer of 2022 caused more than 61,000   
   deaths in Europe    
      
     Date:   
         July 10, 2023   
     Source:   
         Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)   
     Summary:   
         The summer of 2022 was the hottest summer ever recorded in Europe   
         and was characterized by an intense series of record-breaking heat   
         waves, droughts and forest fires. A study now estimates 61,672   
         heat-attributable deaths between 30 May and 4 September 2022. The   
         research team obtained temperature and mortality data for the   
         period 2015-2022 for 823 regions in 35 European countries, whose   
         total population represents more than 543 million people. These   
         data were used to estimate epidemiological models and predict   
         temperature-attributable mortality for each region and week of   
         the summer period.   
      
      
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   FULL STORY   
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   The summer of 2022 was the hottest summer ever recorded in Europe and was   
   characterised by an intense series of record-breaking heat waves, droughts   
   and forest fires. While Eurostat, the European statistical office, already   
   reported unusually high excess mortality for those dates, until now the   
   fraction of mortality attributable to heat had not been quantified. This   
   is precisely what has been done in a study led by the Barcelona Institute   
   for Global Health (ISGlobal), a centre supported by the "la Caixa"   
   Foundation, in collaboration with the French National Institute of Health   
   (Inserm). The analysis, published in Nature Medicine, estimates 61,672   
   heat-attributable deaths between 30 May and 4 September 2022.   
      
   The research team obtained temperature and mortality data for the   
   period 2015- 2022 for 823 regions in 35 European countries, whose total   
   population represents more than 543 million people. These data were used   
   to estimate epidemiological models and predict temperature-attributable   
   mortality for each region and week of the summer period.   
      
   The summer of 2022 was a season of unrelenting heat. Records show that   
   temperatures were warmer-than-average during every week of the summer   
   period.   
      
   The highest temperature anomalies were recorded during the hottest month,   
   from mid-July to mid-August. This coincidence magnified, according to   
   the researchers, heat-related mortality, causing 38,881 deaths between   
   11 July and 14 August. Within that period of just over a month there   
   was an intense pan- European heatwave between 18 and 24 July, to which   
   a total of 11,637 deaths are attributed.   
      
   Most affected countries In absolute terms, the country with the highest   
   number of heat-attributable deaths over the entire summer of 2022 was   
   Italy, with a total of 18,010 deaths, followed by Spain (11,324) and   
   Germany (8,173).   
      
   If the data is ordered by heat-related mortality rate, the top country   
   is Italy, with 295 deaths per million, followed by Greece (280), Spain   
   (237) and Portugal (211). The European average was estimated at 114   
   deaths per million.   
      
   On the other hand, looking only at temperature anomalies, the country   
   with warmest value was France, with +2.43DEGC above the average values   
   for the period 1991-2020, followed by Switzerland (+2.30DEGC), Italy   
   (+2.28DEGC), Hungary (+2.13DEGC) and Spain (+2.11DEGC).   
      
   63% higher mortality in women The study included an analysis by age and   
   sex, showing a very marked increase in mortality in the older age groups,   
   and especially in women. Thus, it is estimated that there were 4,822   
   deaths among those under 65, 9,226 deaths among those between 65 and 79,   
   and 36,848 deaths among those over 79.   
      
   In terms of gender analysis, the data show that heat-attributable   
   mortality was 63% higher in women than in men, with a total of 35,406   
   premature deaths (145 deaths per million), compared to an estimated   
   21,667 deaths in men (93 deaths per million). This greater vulnerability   
   of women to heat is observed in the population as a whole and, above   
   all, in those over 80 years of age, where the mortality rate is 27%   
   higher than that of men. In contrast, the male mortality rate is 41%   
   higher in those under 65, and 13% higher in those aged 65-79.   
      
   Lessons from the 2003 heatwave To date, the highest summer mortality   
   in Europe was registered in 2003, when over 70,000 excess deaths were   
   recorded.   
      
   "The summer of 2003 was an exceptionally rare phenomenon, even when   
   taking into account the anthropogenic warming observed until then. This   
   exceptional nature highlighted the lack of prevention plans and the   
   fragility of health systems to cope with climate-related emergencies,   
   something that was to some extent addressed in subsequent years," explains   
   Joan Ballester Claramunt, first author of the study and researcher at   
   ISGlobal, who holds a grant from the European Research Council.   
      
   "In contrast, the temperatures recorded in the summer of 2022 cannot be   
   considered exceptional, in the sense that they could have been predicted   
   by following the temperature series of previous years, and that they   
   show that warming has accelerated over the last decade," adds Ballester.   
      
   "The fact that more than 61,600 people in Europe died of heat stress   
   in the summer of 2022, even though, unlike in 2003, many countries   
   already had active prevention plans in place, suggests that the   
   adaptation strategies currently available may still be insufficient,"   
   says Hicham Achebak, researcher at Inserm and ISGlobal and last author   
   of the study. "The acceleration of warming observed over the last ten   
   years underlines the urgent need to reassess and substantially strengthen   
   prevention plans, paying particular attention to the differences between   
   European countries and regions, as well as the age and gender gaps,   
   which currently mark the differences in vulnerability to heat," he adds.   
      
   Europe is the continent experiencing the greatest warming, up to 1DEGC   
   more than the global average. Estimates by the research team suggest   
   that, in the absence of an effective adaptive response, the continent   
   will face an average of more than 68,000 premature deaths each summer   
   by 2030 and more than 94,000 by 2040.   
      
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   Story Source: Materials provided by   
   Barcelona_Institute_for_Global_Health_(ISGlobal). Note: Content may be   
   edited for style and length.   
      
      
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   Journal Reference:   
      1. Joan Ballester, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Rau'l Fernando Me'ndez   
         Turrubiates, Ferran Pegenaute, Franc,ois R. Herrmann, Jean Marie   
         Robine, Xavier Basagan~a, Cathryn Tonne, Josep M. Anto', Hicham   
         Achebak. Heat- related mortality in Europe during the summer of   
         2022. Nature Medicine, 2023; DOI: 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/07/230710113917.htm   
      
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