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   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Top corn producing state to see future drop in yield, cover crop   
   efficiency    
      
     Date:   
         July 6, 2023   
     Source:   
         University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and   
         Environmental Sciences   
     Summary:   
         How will future climate change affect nitrogen loss, and will   
         cover crops still be effective in removing nitrogen from drainage   
         water? A new study investigating near- and far-term climate change   
         in Illinois suggests cover crops will still be beneficial, but   
         not to the same degree. The report also forecasts major declines   
         in corn production across the state in the future.   
      
      
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   Winter cover crops could cut nitrogen pollution in Illinois' agricultural   
   drainage water up to 30%, according to recent research from the University   
   of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. But how will future climate change affect   
   nitrogen loss, and will cover crops still be up to the job? A new study   
   investigating near- and far-term climate change in Illinois suggests   
   cover crops will still be beneficial, but not to the same degree. The   
   report also forecasts corn and soybean yield across the state, finding   
   corn will suffer much more than soybean, especially in southern regions.   
      
   In their earlier study, the research team adapted a crop simulation model   
   known as Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)   
   to estimate how efficiently cereal rye could remove nitrate from tile   
   drainage water if planted widely across Illinois. In their new study,   
   the team used DSSAT again to forecast growth of cereal rye, as well as   
   corn and soybean, in the near-term (2021-2040) and far-term (2041-2060)   
   under two climate scenarios for Illinois: a best-case-scenario and a   
   business-as-usual case.   
      
   The team took a piecemeal approach, modeling each component of the   
   system separately before combining them into a holistic prediction for   
   the impact of cover crops under climate change.   
      
   To start, they modeled climate impacts on cash crop yield and cover crop   
   biomass. Corn yield decreased in most Illinois regions, future timeframes,   
   and climate scenarios, with average yield coming in 11.5% below to 3.8%   
   above present averages. Soybean yield, however, mostly increased across   
   regions and scenarios, with yields forecasted up to 27.5% higher than   
   present averages.   
      
   Finally, the model predicted cover crop biomass would boom as a result   
   of climate change, with increases between 25% and 103% beyond current   
   figures.   
      
   "Corn and soybean are two completely different kinds of crop, which   
   is reflected in our results. The change in yield is due to multiple   
   factors. Apart from the projected increase in temperature, the yield   
   response is affected differently for each crop by changes in rainfall   
   patterns and elevated CO2 levels in the future. We also found cover crops   
   strongly benefit from warmer winter weather," said study co-author Rabin   
   Bhattarai, associate professor in the Department of Agricultural and   
   Biological Engineering, a shared unit of the College of Agricultural,   
   Consumer and Environmental Sciences (ACES) and The Grainger College of   
   Engineering at Illinois.   
      
   Looking at nitrogen loss under climate change, the team predicted 24%   
   greater loss in the near-term future, rising to about 42% by 2060.   
      
   "Warmer soil means microbes will be more active in converting nitrogen   
   in organic matter to ammonium and then to nitrate in the soil. And if   
   you have more nitrate in the soil, the potential for loss is higher,"   
   Bhattarai said.   
      
   "We already see high nutrient losses during warm, wet springs, even   
   before crops are planted or fertilizer is applied. That nitrogen is   
   escaping from the soil itself."  With these baselines established,   
   the researchers began making connections.   
      
   First, they looked at the impact of cover crops on cash crop yield. In   
   their previous DSSAT study, the researchers found growing cereal rye   
   before corn and soybean had a slightly positive effect on yield. According   
   to Bhattarai, cover crops slowly scavenge soil nitrogen throughout the   
   winter and return the nutrient to the crop, providing a growth boost,   
   when terminated and incorporated into the soil.   
      
   Under climate change, hungry swards of cover crops could deplete   
   both soil water and nitrogen, even accounting for greater nitrogen   
   availability predicted during warmer winters. Then, at termination, the   
   sheer amount of cover crop biomass could overwhelm the mineralization   
   apparatus of the soil, keeping some nitrogen locked up and unavailable   
   for cash crops. However, although the yield benefit disappeared under   
   future climate scenarios, the analysis did not reveal a yield penalty   
   for growing cover crops.   
      
   "Whether you use cover crops or not, you're going to see a decline in corn   
   yield in the future. The same applies to soybean. You may gain soybean   
   yield whether or not cover crops are present," Bhattarai said. "If you   
   see any impact on the cash crop yield, it's not due to the cover crop,   
   it's due to the changing climate."  Finally, the team looked at cover   
   crop impact on nitrogen loss under climate change. Relative to current   
   conditions in which cover crops reduce tile drainage nitrogen by about   
   30%, cover crops are likely to become less effective under future   
   scenarios, with as low as 11% reduction under far-term worst-case-   
   scenario predictions.   
      
   "You don't get the same benefit that you get now. You will see better   
   growth of cover crops with the warmer temperatures, but mineralization   
   will overtake their ability to take up nitrogen; more supply than demand,"   
   Bhattarai said.   
      
   "Cover crops will help; they will still be effective at reducing loss. But   
   the efficiency will drop."  He added that farmers will have to augment   
   cover crops with additional best management practices to meet nutrient   
   loss reduction goals in the face of a changing climate.   
      
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   provided by University_of_Illinois_College_of_Agricultural,_Consumer   
   and_Environmental_Sciences. Original written by Lauren Quinn. Note:   
   Content may be edited for style and length.   
      
      
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   Journal Reference:   
      1. Rishabh Gupta, Rabin Bhattarai, Hamze Dokoohaki, Shalamar   
      D. Armstrong,   
         Jonathan W. Coppess, Prasanta K. Kalita. Sustainability of cover   
         cropping practice with changing climate in Illinois. Journal   
         of Environmental Management, 2023; 339: 117946 DOI:   
         10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117946   
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   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/07/230706124639.htm   
      
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