MSGID: 1:317/3 64a3a06f   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Birds raise fewer young when spring arrives earlier in a warming world   
    Scientists finds conservation strategies should address avian responses   
   to climate-driven shifts    
      
     Date:   
         July 3, 2023   
     Source:   
         University of California - Los Angeles   
     Summary:   
         A new study of North American songbirds finds that birds can't   
         keep up with the earlier arrival of spring caused by climate   
         change. As a result, they're raising fewer young. By the end of   
         the 21st century, climate change will cause springlike weather to   
         begin 25 days earlier, but birds will only breed about seven days   
         earlier. That change could lead to an average reduction of 12%   
         in breeding productivity for songbird species.   
      
      
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   Rising global temperatures are making it harder for birds to know when   
   it's spring and time to breed according to a new study published in   
   Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.   
      
   A large collaboration led by scientists at UCLA and Michigan State   
   University has found that birds produce fewer young if they start breeding   
   too early or late in the season. With climate change resulting in earlier   
   springlike weather, the researchers report, birds have been unable to   
   keep pace.   
      
   And, the authors write, the mismatch between the start of spring   
   and birds' readiness to reproduce is likely to become worse as the   
   world warms, which could have large-scale consequences that would be   
   catastrophic for many bird populations. Birds' breeding seasons begin   
   whenever the first green plants and flowers appear, which is happening   
   earlier and earlier as the climate warms.   
      
   "By the end of the 21st century, spring is likely to arrive about   
   25 days earlier, with birds breeding only about 6.75 days earlier,"   
   said the study's first author, Casey Youngflesh, who led the research   
   as a postdoctoral researcher at UCLA and is now a postdoctoral fellow   
   at Michigan State. "Our results suggest that breeding productivity may   
   decrease about 12% for the average songbird species."  The authors stress   
   that conservation strategies should address bird species' responses to   
   climate-driven shifts.   
      
   Determining if the earlier springs will pose problems for migratory   
   birds has been a major goal of biologists for decades.   
      
   "For nearly 30 years, scientists have hypothesized that animals   
   could become mismatched from plants as springs begin earlier," said   
   Morgan Tingley, a UCLA associate professor of ecology and evolutionary   
   biology and the study's senior author. "While there have been a few very   
   good case studies of this phenomenon, it has remained a major mystery   
   whether advancing springs will pose a general problem for the majority   
   of species."  When it comes to raising their young, timing matters for   
   birds. If they breed too early or too late, harsh weather could harm   
   their eggs or newborns. But timing relative to food sources matters too:   
   If birds are looking for food before or after its natural availability,   
   they might not have the resources to keep their young alive.   
      
   "Critically, we found evidence for impacts on bird reproduction of both   
   the absolute and the relative timing of birds," Tingley said.   
      
   Using data from a large-scale collaborative bird banding program run   
   by the Institute for Bird Populations, the researchers calculated the   
   timing of breeding and the number of young produced for 41 migratory   
   and resident bird species at 179 sites near forested areas throughout   
   North America between 2001 and 2018.   
      
   Then, the authors used satellite imaging to determine when vegetation   
   emerged around each site. They found that each species had an optimal time   
   to breed, and that the number of young produced decreased when spring   
   arrived very early, or when breeding occurred early or late relative to   
   when plants emerged.   
      
   While the majority of birds were adversely affected by variations in the   
   start of spring, several species -- the northern cardinal, Bewick's wren   
   and wrentit among them -- countered the trend, demonstrating improved   
   breeding productivity when spring began earlier. Those species are mostly   
   non-migratory species that can respond more quickly to the emergence of   
   spring plants that signal the start of the breeding season.   
      
   By breeding earlier and without the time constraints imposed by migration,   
   the study noted, non-migratory species may also be able to reproduce   
   more than once per season.   
      
   But those species were the exceptions to the rule. Even most non-migratory   
   species couldn't keep up with earlier spring arrivals. Overall, for every   
   four days earlier that leaves appeared on trees, species bred only about   
   one day earlier.   
      
   For migratory species, that discrepancy means that the time between   
   when they arrive at their breeding sites and breeding itself is likely   
   to get shorter as springlike conditions begin earlier. Birds need time   
   to establish territories and prepare physiologically for egg-laying and   
   rearing their young, so that change could cause even greater disturbances   
   to reproduction.   
      
   "North America has lost nearly a third of its bird populations since   
   the 1970s," Tingley said. "While our study demonstrates that the worst   
   impacts of timing mismatch likely won't occur for several decades yet, we   
   need to focus now on concrete strategies to boost bird populations before   
   climate change takes its toll."  The study received primary funding from   
   the National Science Foundation and was supported by researchers from   
   the University of Florida; Pennsylvania State University; University of   
   North Carolina, Chapel Hill; and the Institute for Bird Populations.   
      
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   Story Source: Materials provided by   
   University_of_California_-_Los_Angeles. Original written by Holly   
   Ober. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.   
      
      
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   Journal Reference:   
      1. Casey Youngflesh, Graham A. Montgomery, James F. Saracco, David   
      A. W.   
      
         Miller, Robert P. Guralnick, Allen H. Hurlbert, Rodney B. Siegel,   
         Raphael LaFrance, Morgan W. Tingley. Demographic consequences of   
         phenological asynchrony for North American songbirds. Proceedings   
         of the National Academy of Sciences, 2023; 120 (28) DOI:   
         10.1073/pnas.2221961120   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/07/230703160005.htm   
      
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