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   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Three things to know: Climate change's impact on extreme-weather events   
      
      
     Date:   
         July 3, 2023   
     Source:   
         University of Pennsylvania   
     Summary:   
         Researchers found that the effects of climate change on the   
         intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme weather events,   
         like wildfires, could lead to massive increases in all three.   
      
      
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   In an article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy   
   of Sciences, Michael Mann, professor in the Department of Earth and   
   Environmental Science in the University of Pennsylvania's School of Arts   
   & Sciences, and colleagues from Clemson University, the University of   
   California Los Angeles, and Columbia University investigate the effects   
   of climate change on exacerbating compounding heat and drought situations.   
      
   Their findings offer new insights into predicting their interplay,   
   which will provide scientists and policymakers with a clearer and more   
   holistic approach to preventing and preparing for extreme-weather events.   
      
   "We wanted to see how the state-of-the-art climate models used in the most   
   recent assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change   
   address the episodes of heat waves and droughts that have given rise to   
   some of the worst wildfires we've witnessed in recent history," Mann says.   
      
   "We also wanted to get a better understanding of how often these events   
   were occurring, their typical durations, and their intensity to improve   
   not only our forecasting but approaches to mitigating further damage to   
   human life."  Compound drought and heat wave events and their effects   
   The researchers document the deleterious effects of increasingly severe   
   droughts and wildfires occurring in the past three years.   
      
   "Two standout events," Mann says, "were the 2020 California wildfires   
   and the 2019-20 Australian bush fire season, which lasted nearly one   
   whole year and came to be known as the Black Summer. These are known as   
   compound drought and heat wave (CDHW) events and refer to situations   
   wherein a region experiences both prolonged hot temperatures and a   
   shortage of water."  These conditions can occur together and worsen   
   each other's impacts, the researchers say, and could potentially lead   
   to heat-related illnesses and deaths, water scarcity for drinking   
   and agriculture, reduced crop yields, increased wildfire risk, and   
   ecological stress. They also note that anthropogenic climate change --   
   climate change that is driven by human activity -- can contribute to   
   the frequency and severity of these events.   
      
   Projected impact of a worst-case versus moderate-case scenario The   
   researchers compared two contrasting socioeconomic pathways: the high-end   
   or worst-case scenario, wherein society fails to mitigate the effects   
   of anthropogenic climate change, and a moderate scenario, wherein some   
   conservative measures are put in place and efforts are made to abide   
   by them.   
      
   In the worst-case scenario, they found that by the late 21st century   
   approximately 20% of global land areas are expected to witness   
   approximately two CDHW events per year. These events could last for   
   around 25 days and a fourfold increase in severity.   
      
   "Comparatively, the average CDHW frequency over the recent observed   
   reference period was approximately 1.2 events per year, lasting less   
   than 10 days, with far less severity," Mann says.   
      
   The most vulnerable geographical regions, such as eastern North America,   
   southeastern South America, Central Europe, East Africa, Central Asia,   
   and northern Australia, are projected to experience the largest increases   
   in CDHW frequency by the end of the 21st century.   
      
   "Interestingly, places like Philadelphia and some of the regions in the   
   eastern U.S. are where we expect to see an increase in these sorts of   
   events; urban environments in the summertime will witness the highest   
   relative frequency of these events," Mann says.   
      
   Critical need for proactive measures The researchers emphasize the   
   profound threat posed by more frequent and intense CDHW events in the   
   coming decades and the dependence the emissions pathway chosen has on   
   the severity of these events.   
      
   As climate change continues to unfold, addressing the escalating risks   
   associated with CDHW events becomes crucial. This study contributes to the   
   growing understanding of the projected changes in CDHWs and highlights   
   the need for proactive measures, including emission reductions and   
   adaptation strategies, to build resilience and safeguard vulnerable   
   regions from the impacts of compound drought and heat wave events.   
      
   "Our findings provide important scientific context for the record heat   
   and wildfire that we're witnessing right now here in the United States,"   
   Mann says.   
      
   "They underscore that we need to get off fossil fuels as quickly as   
   possible to prevent a worsening of these dangerous combinations of heat   
   and drought."  Michael E. Mann is the inaugural Presidential Distinguished   
   Professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science in the   
   School of Arts & Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, director   
   of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability, and the Media, and holds   
   a secondary appointment in the Annenberg School for Communications.   
      
   This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (Grant 1653841)   
   and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Modeling, Analysis,   
   Prediction, and Planning (Grant NA 190AR4310278).   
      
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   Source: Materials provided by University_of_Pennsylvania. Original written   
   by Nathi Magubane. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.   
      
      
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   Journal Reference:   
      1. Kumar P. Tripathy, Sourav Mukherjee, Ashok K. Mishra, Michael   
      E. Mann, A.   
      
         Park Williams. Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of   
         compound drought and heatwave events. Proceedings of the National   
         Academy of Sciences, 2023; 120 (28) DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2219825120   
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   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/07/230703185543.htm   
      
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