MSGID: 1:317/3 6482aaf4   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Without fully implementing net-zero pledges, the world will miss climate   
   goals    
      
     Date:   
         June 8, 2023   
     Source:   
         Imperial College London   
     Summary:   
         Without more legally binding and well-planned net-zero policies,   
         the world is highly likely to miss key climate targets.   
      
      
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   FULL STORY   
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   Without more legally binding and well-planned net-zero policies, the   
   world is highly likely to miss key climate targets.   
      
   In the new study, led by Imperial College London and published today   
   in Science, researchers ranked 90% of global net-zero greenhouse   
   gas emissions pledges as providing low confidence in their full   
   implementation.   
      
   The researchers recommend nations make their targets legally binding   
   and back them up with long-term plans and short-term implementation   
   policies to increase the likelihood of avoiding the worst impacts of   
   climate change.   
      
   Lead researcher Professor Joeri Rogelj, director of research for the   
   Grantham Institute at Imperial, said: "Climate policy is moving from   
   setting ambitious targets to implementing them. However, our analysis   
   shows most countries do not provide high confidence that they will   
   deliver on their commitments. The world is still on a high-risk climate   
   track, and we are far from delivering a safe climate future."  Assigning   
   confidence Climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement include keeping   
   temperature rises well below 2DEGC above the average temperature before   
   the industrial revolution and ideally below 1.5DEGC. The main way to   
   achieve this is the reach 'net-zero' greenhouse gas emissions as soon   
   as possible, where any remaining emissions are effectively offset.   
      
   Most countries have set net-zero goals and Nationally Determined   
   Contributions (NDCs) -- non-binding national plans proposing climate   
   actions. Taking these plans at face value, and assuming they will all be   
   fully implemented, gives the world a chance of keeping warming to 1.5-2   
   degrees C. But taking current policies only, with no implementation of   
   net-zero pledges, means models predict temperature rises could be as   
   much as 2.5-3 degrees C by 2100, with warming still increasing.   
      
   To reduce the uncertainty in which of these scenarios is likely to happen,   
   the team, including researchers from the UK, Austria, USA, Netherlands,   
   Germany, and Brazil, assigned a 'confidence' to each net-zero policy. They   
   assessed 35 net zero targets, covering every country with more than 0.1%   
   of current global greenhouse gas emissions.   
      
   The confidence assessment was based on three policy characteristics:   
   whether the policy was legally binding, whether there was a credible   
   policy plan guiding implementation, and whether short-term plans would   
   already put emissions on a downward path over the next decade.   
      
   Based on this, policies were given 'higher', 'lower' or 'much lower'   
   confidence of being fully implemented. Some regions scored highly,   
   including the European Union, the United Kingdom and New Zealand, but   
   around 90% scored 'lower' or 'much lower' confidence, including China   
   and the US, which together account for more than 35% of current emissions.   
      
   Modelling emissions From this assessment, the team modelled five scenarios   
   of future greenhouse gas emissions and resulting temperatures. These were:   
   considering only current policies (the most conservative scenario); only   
   adding in policies that have a high confidence of being implemented;   
   adding policies with high and low confidence; adding all policies   
   regardless of confidence as if they are implemented; and a scenario   
   where all policies are fully implemented and all NDCs are met (the most   
   forgiving scenario).   
      
   The most conservative scenario had the largest uncertainty, with a   
   range of 1.7-3DEGC and a median estimate of 2.6DEGC. The most optimistic   
   scenario has a range of 1.6-2.1, with a median estimate of 1.7DEGC. This   
   might suggest that, if all net-zero policies are fully implemented, the   
   Paris Agreement goals are withing reach. However, with so many policies   
   ranked in the low-confidence end of the scale, this would be wishful   
   thinking in absence of further efforts.   
      
   Co-author Taryn Fransen, from the World Resources Institute in   
   Washington DC, and the Energy and Resources Group at the University   
   of California-Berkeley, said: "Climate change targets are by their   
   nature ambitious -- there's no point in setting a target for a foregone   
   conclusion. But implementation must follow."  Catalysing action Only   
   twelve out of 35 net zero policies are currently legally binding,   
   and the researchers say increasing this number would help ensure the   
   policies survive long-term and catalyse action. Countries also need   
   clear implementation pathways for different sectors, outlining exactly   
   what changes are needed and where the responsibility lies.   
      
   Co-author Dr Robin Lamboll, from the Centre for Environmental Policy at   
   Imperial, said: "Making targets legally binding is crucial to ensure   
   long-term plans are adopted. We need to see concrete legislation in   
   order to trust that action will follow from promises."  The team included   
   researchers from Imperial College London (UK) the International Institute   
   for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria), the World Resources Institute   
   (US), the University of California-Berkeley (US), the Netherlands   
   Environmental Assessment Agency, the Institute for Environmental Studies   
   (Netherlands), the NewClimate Institute (Germany), the Copernicus   
   Institute of Sustainable Development (Netherlands), and the Universidade   
   Federal do Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).   
      
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   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided by Imperial_College_London. Original   
   written by Hayley Dunning. Note: Content may be edited for style and   
   length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. Joeri Rogelj, Taryn Fransen, Michel G. J. den Elzen, Robin   
      D. Lamboll,   
         Clea Schumer, Takeshi Kuramochi, Frederic Hans, Silke Mooldijk,   
         Joana Portugal-Pereira. Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets   
         leaves world at high risk. Science, 2023; 380 (6649): 1014 DOI:   
         10.1126/ science.adg6428   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/06/230608195634.htm   
      
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