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   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Global flash droughts expected to increase in a warming climate    
      
     Date:   
         May 26, 2023   
     Source:   
         University of Oklahoma   
     Summary:   
         Researchers have published new findings on how our warming climate   
         will affect the frequency of flash droughts and the risk to   
         croplands globally.   
      
      
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   FULL STORY   
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   The rapid development of unexpected drought, called flash drought, can   
   severely impact agricultural and ecological systems with ripple effects   
   that extend even further. Researchers at the University of Oklahoma are   
   assessing how our warming climate will affect the frequency of flash   
   droughts and the risk to croplands globally.   
      
   Jordan Christian, a postdoctoral researcher, is the lead author of the   
   study, "Global projections of flash drought show increased risk in a   
   warming climate," published today in Nature Communications Earth and   
   Environment.   
      
   "In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland   
   risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model   
   simulations," Christian said. "We find that flash drought occurrence is   
   expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest   
   increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater   
   fossil fuel usage."  Radiative forcing describes the imbalance of   
   radiation where more radiation enters Earth's atmosphere than leaves   
   it. Like burning fossil fuels, these activities are among the most   
   significant contributors to climate warming. The changing climate is   
   expected to increase severe weather events from storms, flash flooding,   
   flash droughts and more.   
      
   "Flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase globally,   
   with the largest increases projected across North America and Europe,"   
   Christian said.   
      
   "CMIP6 models projected a 1.5 times increase in the annual risk of   
   flash droughts over croplands across North America by 2100, from the   
   2015 baseline of a 32% yearly risk in 2015 to 49% in 2100, while Europe   
   is expected to have the largest increase in the most extreme emissions   
   scenario (32% to 53%), a 1.7 times increase in annual risk," he said.   
      
   Jeffrey Basara, an associate professor in the School of Meteorology in   
   the College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences and the School of   
   Civil Engineering and Environmental Sciences in the Gallogly College of   
   Engineering, is Christian's faculty advisor and study co-author. Basara   
   is the executive associate director of the hydrology and water security   
   program and leads OU's Climate, Hydrology, Ecosystems and Weather research   
   group. The researchers have been investigating ways to improve flash   
   drought identification and prediction since 2017, with multiple papers   
   published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology, Environmental Research   
   Letters and Nature Communications.   
      
   "This study continues to emphasize that agricultural producers, both   
   domestic and abroad, will face increasing risks associated with water   
   availability due to the rapid development of drought. As a result,   
   socioeconomic pressures associated with food production, including higher   
   prices and social unrest, will also increase when crop losses occur due   
   to flash drought," Basara said.   
      
       * RELATED_TOPICS   
             o Earth_&_Climate   
                   # Drought_Research # Floods # Severe_Weather #   
                   Environmental_Issues # Climate # Global_Warming #   
                   Natural_Disasters # Weather   
       * RELATED_TERMS   
             o IPCC_Report_on_Climate_Change_-_2007 o Global_warming   
             o Consensus_of_scientists_regarding_global_warming o   
             Global_warming_controversy o Effects_of_global_warming   
             o Attribution_of_recent_climate_change o   
             Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change o Climate_change_mitigation   
      
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   Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Oklahoma. Original   
   written by Chelsea Julian. Note: Content may be edited for style and   
   length.   
      
      
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   Journal Reference:   
      1. Jordan I. Christian, Elinor R. Martin, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C.   
      
         Furtado, Jason A. Otkin, Lauren E. L. Lowman, Eric D. Hunt,   
         Vimal Mishra, Xiangming Xiao. Global projections of flash drought   
         show increased risk in a warming climate. Communications Earth &   
         Environment, 2023; 4 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00826-1   
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   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230526183216.htm   
      
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