MSGID: 1:317/3 6465a9e1   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Extremely hot days are warming twice as fast as average summer days in   
   North-West Europe    
      
     Date:   
         May 17, 2023   
     Source:   
         University of Oxford   
     Summary:   
         New study analyzed data on near-surface air temperatures recorded   
         for North-West Europe over the past 60 years. The findings show that   
         the maximum temperature of the hottest days is increasing at twice   
         the rate of the maximum temperature of average summer days. The   
         results highlight the need for urgent action by policy makers to   
         adapt essential infrastructure to the impacts of climate change.   
      
      
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   FULL STORY   
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   New study analysed data on near-surface air temperatures recorded for   
   North- West Europe over the past 60 years. The findings show that the   
   maximum temperature of the hottest days is increasing at twice the rate of   
   the maximum temperature of average summer days. The results highlight the   
   need for urgent action by policy makers to adapt essential infrastructure   
   to the impacts of climate change.   
      
   New research led by the University of Oxford has found that climate   
   change is causing the hottest days in North-West Europe to warm at   
   double the rate of average summer days. The difference in trends is   
   most pronounced for England, Wales, and Northern France. Worryingly,   
   while current climate models accurately predict the rate of warming for   
   average days, they underestimate the rate at which the hottest days are   
   warming compared to observations.   
      
   According to lead researcher Dr Matthew Patterson, from the University   
   of Oxford's Department of Physics, the results indicate that extreme   
   heat events - - such as the UK's record-breaking heatwave last summer --   
   are likely to become more regular. Dr Patterson said: 'These findings   
   underline the fact that the UK and neighbouring countries are already   
   experiencing the effects of climate change, and that last year's heatwave   
   was not a fluke. Policy makers urgently need to adapt their infrastructure   
   and health systems to cope with the impacts of higher temperatures.'   
   For the study, published today in Geographical Research Letters, Dr   
   Patterson analysed data from the past 60 years (1960-2021) recording   
   the maximum daily temperature, provided by the European Centre for   
   Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.   
      
   Although the maximum recorded temperature varied between years,   
   the overall trend clearly showed that the hottest days for North-West   
   Europe had warmed at twice the rate of average summer days. For England   
   and Wales, the average summer day increased by approximately 0.26DEGC   
   per decade, whilst the hottest day increased by around 0.58DEGC per   
   decade. However, this faster warming of the hottest days was not observed   
   to this extent elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere.   
      
   The reason causing this faster warming of the hottest days relative to   
   average summer days is not yet understood. According to Dr Patterson,   
   this may be due to the hottest summer days in North-West Europe often   
   being linked to hot air transported north from over Spain. Because Spain   
   is warming faster than North- West Europe, this means that air carried   
   in from this region is ever more extreme relative to the ambient air in   
   North-West Europe. The hottest days of 2022, for instance, were driven   
   by a plume of hot air carried north from Spain and the Sahara. However,   
   further research is needed to verify this.   
      
   Dr Patterson added: 'Understanding the warming rate of the hottest days   
   will be important if we are to improve climate model simulation of extreme   
   events and make accurate predictions about the future intensity of such   
   events. If our models underestimate the rise in extreme temperatures   
   over the coming decades, we will underestimate the impacts this will   
   have.'  Extreme heat has significant negative impacts on many different   
   aspects of society, including energy and transport infrastructure, and   
   agriculture. It also exacerbates conditions including respiratory and   
   cardiovascular diseases, putting a strain on health services.   
      
   The current UK Government has been criticised by the Climate Change   
   Committee (CCC) for failing to act quickly enough to adapt for the impacts   
   of global heating. These new findings add even more urgency for policy   
   makers to adapt infrastructure and systems vulnerable to extreme heat.   
      
       * RELATED_TOPICS   
             o Health_&_Medicine   
                   # Health_Policy # Infectious_Diseases # Medical_Topics   
                   # Viruses   
             o Earth_&_Climate   
                   # Global_Warming # Climate # Environmental_Issues #   
                   Weather   
       * RELATED_TERMS   
             o Temperature_record_of_the_past_1000_years o Climate_model   
             o Attribution_of_recent_climate_change o Global_warming   
             o Effects_of_global_warming o Jet_stream o Gulf_Stream o   
             Greenhouse_effect   
      
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   Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Oxford. Note: Content   
   may be edited for style and length.   
      
      
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   Journal Reference:   
      1. Matthew Patterson. North‐West Europe Hottest Days Are   
      Warming Twice   
         as Fast as Mean Summer Days. Geophysical Research Letters, 2023;   
         50 (10) DOI: 10.1029/2023GL102757   
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   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230517122123.htm   
      
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