MSGID: 1:317/3 6442116e   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Turkey's next quake: Research shows where, how bad -- but not 'when'   
    Awareness of seismic hazard could prepare the population and the science   
   community    
      
     Date:   
         April 20, 2023   
     Source:   
         University of Southern California   
     Summary:   
         Using remote sensing, geophysicists have documented the massive   
         Feb. 6 quake that killed more than 50,000 people in Eastern Turkey   
         and toppled more than 100,000 buildings. Alarmingly, researchers   
         found that a section of the fault remains unbroken and locked --   
         a sign that the plates there may, when friction intensifies,   
         generate another magnitude 6.8 earthquake when it finally gives way.   
      
      
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   FULL STORY   
   ==========================================================================   
   Researchers know a lot about Turkey's next major earthquake. They can   
   pinpoint the probable epicenter, estimate its strength and see the   
   spatial footprint of where damage is most likely to occur.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   They just can't say when it will happen.   
      
   That's the main takeaway from a new USC-led study that appears today   
   (April 20) in Seismica.   
      
   Using remote sensing, USC geophysicist Sylvain Barbot and his fellow   
   researchers documented the massive Feb. 6 quake that killed more than   
   50,000 people in Eastern Turkey and toppled more than 100,000 buildings.   
      
   Alarmingly, researchers found that a section of the fault remains unbroken   
   and locked -- a sign that the plates there may, when friction intensifies,   
   generate another magnitude 6.8 earthquake when it finally gives way.   
      
   "We know a little bit better what to prepare for. We don't know the   
   timing, but we know where it can happen," Barbot said.   
      
   Major earthquakes are caused by the slipping of tectonic plates. The   
   plates, slowly moving pieces of the earth's crust, press against each   
   other, gradually accumulating force over the course of decades, centuries   
   and eons. When the plates finally slip, the energy explodes in traveling   
   waves through the earth's crust.   
      
   The Kahramanmaras, Turkey, magnitude 7.8 mainshock occurred Feb. 6,   
   followed by a magnitude 7.6 aftershock on a separate fault further   
   west. Another quake occurred two weeks later, a magnitude 6.4 on   
   Feb. 20. A plotting of data (see above) shows seismic activity and the   
   amount of slippage along the faults.   
      
   The area beneath Turkey's Pu"tu"rge district shows a swarm of seismic   
   activity along the fault -- but no slippage. That means that part of   
   the fault is locked, or stuck, but it is likely to slip sometime --   
   anytime -- in the future.   
      
   "What we've seen in photos of the buildings that collapsed is that some   
   of them were pancakes but others were literally pulverized," Barbot   
   said. "So that means another degree of failure; even the concrete itself   
   disintegrated. There is the possibility that this earthquake produced   
   more shaking than was anticipated in the building codes. We won't know   
   without more research.   
      
   "So, we have this region where we can expect a 6.8 magnitude earthquake   
   and two things can happen from here. The population needs to be prepared   
   for that. But also the scientific community because that gives us an   
   opportunity to prepare a monitoring experiment to see how an earthquake   
   starts and ends."   
       * RELATED_TOPICS   
             o Earth_&_Climate   
                   # Earthquakes # Natural_Disasters # Tsunamis #   
                   Geology # Earth_Science # Environmental_Science #   
                   Near-Earth_Object_Impacts # Geochemistry   
       * RELATED_TERMS   
             o 1999_Izmit,_Turkey_Earthquake o North_Anatolian_Fault o   
             Earthquake o Shaanxi_Earthquake o 1923_Great_Kanto_earthquake o   
             Great_Chilean_Earthquake o Elastic-rebound_theory_of_earthquakes   
             o Richter_magnitude_scale   
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided   
   by University_of_Southern_California. Original written by Leigh   
   Hopper. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. Sylvain Barbot, Heng Luo, Teng Wang, Yariv Hamiel, Oksana   
      Piatibratova,   
         Muhammad Tahir Javed, Carla Braitenberg, Gokhan Gurbuz. Slip   
         distribution of the February 6, 2023 Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6,   
         Kahramanmaraş, Turkey earthquake sequence in the East Anatolian   
         Fault Zone. Seismica, 2023; 2 (3) DOI: 10.26443/seismica.v2i3.502   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/04/230420135304.htm   
      
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