MSGID: 1:317/3 6440c03b   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Cities can benefit from complex supply chains    
      
     Date:   
         April 19, 2023   
     Source:   
         Penn State   
     Summary:   
         During the early days of the pandemic, consumers faced shortages   
         and abrupt price increases on common goods ranging from toilet   
         paper and coffee to bicycles and lumber. While the complexity   
         of supply chains may contribute to the problem in some cases,   
         researchers found that complex and diverse supply chains may   
         actually protect cities from shortages under stress.   
      
      
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   FULL STORY   
   ==========================================================================   
   During the early days of the pandemic, consumers faced shortages and   
   abrupt price increases on common goods ranging from toilet paper and   
   coffee to bicycles and lumber. While the complexity of supply chains may   
   contribute to the problem in some cases, Penn State researchers found   
   that complex and diverse supply chains may actually protect cities from   
   shortages under stress.   
      
   They published their work in Urban Sustainability,   
      
   ==========================================================================   
   "Longstanding research has found that if supply chains get too complex,   
   they can become problematic," said corresponding author Alfonso Mejia,   
   associate professor of civil and environmental engineering. "But the   
   opposite tends to be true in nature: In ecological systems, there is   
   a well-known connection between complexity and resiliency."  Diversity   
   increases complexity, which is a good thing in nature, Mejia said.   
      
   The diversity of an ecosystem -- having many species that can do various   
   tasks -- makes that system less vulnerable in the face of wildfires,   
   floods and other natural disasters.   
      
   "The redundancy of multiple species doing the same things in different   
   ways enables an ecosystem to better respond to shocks," Mejia said. "If   
   one goes away, the other can continue. We believed that what we learn   
   from nature could be applied to human systems."  The researchers began   
   looking at supply chains from that perspective, examining whether the   
   complexity of a diverse supply chain -- one that sources products from   
   many different suppliers -- makes a city more resilient.   
      
   With nature as inspiration, Mejia and his team examined 2012-15 data   
   from the U.S. Departments of Transportation and Energy that showed the   
   movement of goods from 39 product categories across 69 major U.S. cities.   
      
   The researchers developed an algorithm to analyze the impact of two   
   measures of complexity in this movement of supplies: the diversity of   
   sources needed for a product and the volume of that product coming into   
   the city. Using a machine learning algorithm and regression models, they   
   compressed the large datasets and identified key patterns to predict   
   the risk of supply shortages in cities experiencing shock.   
      
   "We found that complexity can be a good thing," Mejia said. "Cities with   
   diverse supply chains -- sources from a broad range of domestic and   
   global suppliers -- appear to be better protected against shocks and   
   experience less- intense shortages."  The researchers found that the   
   potential for benefits from complexity is most evident in medium-size   
   cities with populations of 100,000-500,000 people.   
      
   "Large cities like New York and Chicago, just by being large and having   
   less dependency on specific supply partners, are less affected by supply   
   chain interruptions," Mejia said. "But medium cities are hurt by a lack   
   of diversity when sourcing the supplies they need."  Mejia said he plans   
   to test the model with data from more cities over a longer timeframe of   
   pre- and post-pandemic years.   
      
   Penn State, the National Science Foundation and The Ministry of National   
   Education of Turkey supported this work.   
      
       * RELATED_TOPICS   
             o Matter_&_Energy   
                   # Energy_Technology # Civil_Engineering # Engineering #   
                   Quantum_Physics   
             o Science_&_Society   
                   # Resource_Shortage # Travel_and_Recreation #   
                   Transportation_Issues # STEM_Education   
       * RELATED_TERMS   
             o Microeconomics o Water_scarcity o Retail o Consumerism o   
             Bicycle o Classical_liberalism o Economic_growth o Fatty_acid   
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided by Penn_State. Original written by Mary   
   Fetzer. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. Nazlı B. Doğan, Alfonso Mejia, Michael Gomez. Cities can   
         benefit from complex supply chains. npj Urban Sustainability,   
         2023; 3 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s42949-023-00100-5   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/04/230419125116.htm   
      
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