MSGID: 1:317/3 643633ee   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Cities will need more resilient electricity networks to cope with   
   extreme weather    
      
     Date:   
         April 11, 2023   
     Source:   
         Lund University   
     Summary:   
         Dense urban areas amplify the effects of higher temperatures, due   
         to the phenomenon of heat islands in cities. This makes cities   
         more vulnerable to extreme climate events. Large investments in   
         the electricity network will be necessary to cool us down during   
         heatwaves and keep us warm during cold snaps, according to a   
         new study.   
      
      
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   FULL STORY   
   ==========================================================================   
   Dense urban areas amplify the effects of higher temperatures, due to the   
   phenomenon of heat islands in cities. This makes cities more vulnerable   
   to extreme climate events. Large investments in the electricity network   
   will be necessary to cool us down during heatwaves and keep us warm during   
   cold snaps, according to a new study led by Lund University in Sweden.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   "Unless we account for extreme climate events and continued urbanisation,   
   the reliability of electricity supply will fall by up to 30%. An   
   additional outlay of 20-60 per cent will be required during the energy   
   transition in order to guarantee that cities can cope with different   
   kinds of climate," says Vahid Nik, Professor of Building Physics at Lund   
   University and one of the authors of the article in Nature Energy.   
      
   The study presents a modelling platform that ties together climate,   
   building and energy system models in order to facilitate simulation   
   and evaluation of cities' energy transition. The aim is to secure the   
   cities' resilience against future climate changes at the same time as   
   densification of urban areas is taking place. In particular, researchers   
   have looked closely at extreme weather events (e.g. heatwaves and cold   
   snaps) by producing simulations of urban microclimates.   
      
   "Our results show that high density areas give rise to a phenomenon called   
   urban heat islands, which make cities more vulnerable to the effects of   
   extreme climate events, particularly in southern Europe. For example,   
   the outdoor temperature can rise by 17% while the wind speed falls by   
   61%. Urban densification -- a recommended development strategy in order   
   to reach the UN's energy and climate goals -- could make the electricity   
   network more vulnerable.   
      
   This must be taken into consideration when designing urban energy systems,   
   says Kavan Javanroodi, Assistant Professor in Building and Urban Physics.   
      
   "The framework we have developed connects future climate models to   
   buildings and energy systems at city level, taking the urban microclimate   
   into account.   
      
   For the first time, we are getting to grips with several challenges around   
   the issues of future climate uncertainty and extreme weather situations,   
   focussing in particular on what are known as 'HILP' or High Impact Low   
   Probability events," says Vahid Nik.   
      
   There is still a large gap between future climate modelling and building   
   and energy analyses and their links to one another. According to Vahid   
   Nik, the model now being developed makes a great contribution to closing   
   that gap.   
      
   "Our results answer questions like 'how big an effect will extreme weather   
   events have in the future, given the predicted pace of urbanisation and   
   several different future climate scenarios?', 'how do we take them and   
   the connections between them into account?' and 'how does the nature of   
   urban development contribute to exacerbating or mitigating the effects   
   of extreme events at regional and municipal level?' " The results   
   show that the peaks in demand in the energy system increase more than   
   previously thought when extreme microclimates are taken into account,   
   for example with an increase in cooling demand for 68% in Stockholm and   
   43% in Madrid on the hottest day of the year. Not considering this can   
   lead to incorrect estimates of cities' energy requirements, which can   
   turn into power shortage and even blackouts.   
      
   "There is a marked deviation between the heat and cooling requirements   
   shown in today's urban climate models, compared to the outcomes of our   
   calculations when urban morphology, the physical design of the city,   
   is more complex. For example, if we fail to take into account the urban   
   climate in Madrid, we could underestimate the need for cooling by around   
   28%," says Kavan Javanroodi.   
      
   Vahid Nik explains that an increasing number of countries have become   
   interested in extreme weather events, energy issues and the impact on   
   public health. At the same time, there are no methods of quantifying the   
   effects of climate change and planning for adapting to them, especially   
   when it comes to extreme weather events and climate variations across   
   space and time.   
      
   "Our efforts can contribute to making societies more prepared for climate   
   change. Future research should aim to examine the relationship between   
   urban density and climate change in energy forecasts. Furthermore, we   
   ought to develop more innovative methods of increasing energy flexibility   
   and climate resilience in cities, which is a major focus of research   
   for our team at the moment," says Vahid Nik.   
      
       * RELATED_TOPICS   
             o Matter_&_Energy   
                   # Energy_Technology # Physics # Thermodynamics   
             o Earth_&_Climate   
                   # Weather # Global_Warming # Climate   
             o Science_&_Society   
                   # Energy_Issues # Environmental_Policies #   
                   Resource_Shortage   
       * RELATED_TERMS   
             o Urban_planning o Electricity_generation o Urbanization o   
             Smog o Hurricane o Winter_storm o Humidity o Climate   
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided by Lund_University. Note: Content may   
   be edited for style and length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. A. T. D. Perera, Kavan Javanroodi, Dasaraden Mauree, Vahid M. Nik,   
      Pietro   
         Florio, Tianzhen Hong, Deliang Chen. Challenges resulting from urban   
         density and climate change for the EU energy transition. Nature   
         Energy, 2023; DOI: 10.1038/s41560-023-01232-9   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/04/230411105903.htm   
      
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