MSGID: 1:317/3 643633e8   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    The 2022 Durban floods were the most catastrophic yet recorded in   
   KwaZulu-Natal    
      
     Date:   
         April 11, 2023   
     Source:   
         University of the Witwatersrand   
     Summary:   
         Research shows flooding events in the province have doubled in   
         the last century.   
      
      
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   FULL STORY   
   ==========================================================================   
   The disastrous flood that hit Durban in April 2022 was the most   
   catastrophic natural disaster yet recorded in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) in   
   collective terms of lives lost, homes and infrastructure damaged or   
   destroyed and economic impact.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   This is according to a new study by researchers from the University of   
   the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa, and the University of   
   Brighton, UK, published in the South African Geographical Journal.   
      
   Professor Stefan Grab from Wits University and his colleague, Professor   
   David Nash constructed a geographical history of flooding disasters   
   in KZN by sifting through thousands of archived articles held in old   
   newspapers, colonial and government records, early missionary records, and   
   meteorological records which became available from the 1850s onwards. They   
   define extreme flooding events, where major rivers were overflowing   
   their banks, together with one or more significant consequences, such   
   as the loss of human life, livestock, agricultural fields and crops,   
   and infrastructure such as buildings, roads and bridges.   
      
   The study, which reconstructed the history of floods in KZN since the   
   1840s, confirmed a widely-held -- yet anecdotal view -- that the April   
   2022 floods were likely the most catastrophic natural disaster yet   
   recorded in KZN and that flooding events have doubled over the last   
   century or more.   
      
   "Right after the floods, many commentators like the media, some scientists   
   and others were quick to report that the floods were the most severe   
   ever recorded.   
      
   Our aim was to place the floods into perspective and see if this and   
   other statements related to the disaster were factually correct by   
   building a historic geographic account of past floods and associated   
   extreme rainfall events for the province of KZN and particularly the   
   greater Durban region," says Grab, lead author of the study.   
      
   The scientists found that while the floods were indeed the most   
   catastrophic in terms of lives lost, infrastructure damaged, and   
   economical loss, the flood was not actually the biggest in terms of   
   the area affected, homes destroyed, or the amount of rainfall that fell   
   collectively over a few days.   
      
   "When you look at a natural disaster you need to look at it in   
   context. Whether the April 2022 floods were the 'worst in living memory'   
   is debatable, as a flooding event in September 1987 affected a larger   
   geographic area of KZN and destroyed more homes than the 2022 event,"   
   says Grab. Similarly, a catastrophic flooding event in Durban, 1856 --   
   also in April -- produced a greater quantity of rainfall over a three-day   
   period than last year's floods.   
      
   In April 2022, the KZN coastal zone, including the greater Durban area   
   and South Coast, received more than 300mm of rain in 24 hours. This led   
   to calamitous flooding, with 459 people losing their lives and 88 people   
   still missing by the end of May 2022. Over 4000 homes were destroyed,   
   40,000 people left homeless, and 45,000 people were temporarily left   
   unemployed. The cost of infrastructure and business losses amounted to   
   an estimated US$2 billion.   
      
   In April 1856, 303mm of rain fell in Durban over 24 hours, and a record of   
   691mm over a three-day period from April 14 to 16. During these historic   
   floods, an unknown number of people drowned, the entire central area   
   of Durban was flooded, bridges were destroyed and roads were closed   
   for several days, cutting off all communication with other parts of the   
   country. The floods extended inland to Howick and the Umgeni bridge was   
   swept away. Over a 16km stretch of beach between the mouths of the Umgeni   
   and Umhlanga rivers, 200 drowned oxen were deposited.   
      
   "It is difficult to compare the two floods in terms of which was the most   
   severe. We must recognize that back in 1856 Durban was only a town with a   
   much smaller population and economic infrastructure to that of today, and   
   thus the percentage of individuals impacted or percentage economic loss   
   may well have been greater back in 1856. In addition, coping mechanisms   
   and 'outside' support would have been far more restricted during the   
   19th century," says Grab.   
      
   It is highly likely that recent anthropogenically-induced global   
   climate warming has contributed to trends of increased flooding as we   
   have demonstrated here, and this trend is likely to continue so in the   
   foreseeable future.   
      
   However, it is also important to recognize that catastrophic climate   
   events such as severe floods are not temporally restricted to a 'warmer   
   world' as the 1856 floods happened during a much colder climatic period.   
      
   "With regards flood disasters -- history is repeating itself. We need to   
   prepare for bigger rainfall events in our cities, and that doesn't just   
   apply to Durban, it applies to all South African cities and towns. We   
   must get our infrastructure, especially drainage systems, in order. It   
   is urgent that we better prepare ourselves for the heavy rainfall and   
   flood events that are guaranteed to come in times ahead," says Grab.   
      
   The research was funded by The Leverhulme Trust with further support   
   from the University of the Witwatersrand.   
      
       * RELATED_TOPICS   
             o Earth_&_Climate   
                   # Floods # Natural_Disasters # Global_Warming #   
                   Environmental_Issues # Geography # Weather # Water #   
                   Environmental_Policy   
       * RELATED_TERMS   
             o Mid-Atlantic_United_States_flood_of_2006 o   
             Timeline_of_environmental_events o Gulf_of_Mexico o Levee   
             o Coastal_management o Instrumental_temperature_record o   
             Meteorology o Temperature_record   
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_the_Witwatersrand. Note:   
   Content may be edited for style and length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. S.W. Grab, David J. Nash. A new flood chronology for KwaZulu-Natal   
      (1836-   
         2022): the April 2022 Durban floods in historical   
         context. South African Geographical Journal, 2023; 1 DOI:   
         10.1080/03736245.2023.2193758   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/04/230411105909.htm   
      
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