MSGID: 1:317/3 642cf97a   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Limiting warming to 2DEGC may avoid 80% of heat-related deaths in Middle   
   East and North Africa    
      
     Date:   
         April 4, 2023   
     Source:   
         London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine   
     Summary:   
         Over 80% of predicted heat-related deaths in the Middle East and   
         North Africa (MENA) by the end of the century could be prevented if   
         global warming is limited to 2DEGC, according to a modelling study.   
      
      
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   FULL STORY   
   ==========================================================================   
   Over 80% of predicted heat-related deaths in the Middle East and North   
   Africa (MENA) by the end of the century could be prevented if global   
   warming is limited to 2DEGC, according to a modelling study published   
   in The Lancet Planetary Health.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Under high-emissions scenarios, approximately 123 people per 100,000 in   
   MENA are predicted to die annually from heat-related causes by the end   
   of the century -- approximately 60-fold greater than current figures   
   and much higher than predictions under similar scenarios worldwide.   
      
   However, if global warming is instead limited to 2DEGC, over 80% of   
   these deaths could be avoided, highlighting the urgent need for better   
   adaption policies and a switch to renewable technologies.   
      
   The findings come as the world prepares for COP28 in Dubai in November.   
      
   MENA is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions of the world, with   
   maximum temperatures predicted to rise to almost 50DEGC by the end of   
   the century, potentially making some areas unliveable.   
      
   However, despite this vulnerability, the impact of heat stress in this   
   region, which is worsening due to climate change, remains underexplored.   
      
   In the current study, an international team of researchers, including   
   from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), modelled   
   current (2001 to 2020) and future (2021 to 2100) trends in heat-related   
   mortality in 19 countries in the MENA region. In their analyses, the   
   team considered variations in the levels of potential greenhouse gas   
   emissions over time and different socioeconomic scenarios.   
      
   Under high emissions scenarios (defined by the Intergovernmental Panel   
   on Climate Change Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5), most of the   
   MENA region will experience substantial levels of warming by the 2060s.   
      
   Indeed, under SSP5-8.5, annual heat-related deaths will rise from   
   approximately two per 100,000 currently to 123 per 100,000 by the period   
   between 2081 and 2100. Although current heat-related deaths in MENA are   
   relatively low compared to other regions (two per 100,000 compared to   
   17 per 100,000 in Western Europe or 10 per 100,000 in Australasia, for   
   example), this rise is expected to be much higher than other regions of   
   the world under similar climate change scenarios. The UK, for example,   
   is expected to see a rise from current figures of three per 100,000 to   
   nine per 100,000 by the 2080s.   
      
   Iran is expected to have the highest annual death rate in MENA under   
   SSP5-8.5 (423 per 100,000), with other countries such as Palestine,   
   Iraq and Israel also predicted to have high rates (186, 169 and 163 per   
   100,000, respectively).   
      
   Smaller Gulf states, such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, will   
   see the greatest relative increases in heat-related deaths.   
      
   However, for the MENA region as a whole, if global warming can be limited   
   to 2DEGC as defined by SSP1-2.6, the team estimate that over 80% of the   
   total 123 annual predicted heat-related deaths per 100,000 people could   
   be avoided.   
      
   With COP28 on the horizon, the authors conclude that there is an even   
   greater urgency for stronger mitigation and adaptation policies to be   
   agreed upon, both at the conference and beyond, if MENA is to avoid the   
   worst possible impacts of future warming.   
      
   Reliance on traditional heat-adaption solutions such as air-conditioning   
   will not be enough, they warn. Air-conditioning, for example, is used to a   
   relatively high extent in countries where rates of heat-related mortality   
   are higher than the regional average, such as in Israel and Cyprus.   
      
   As population growth in MENA will be a substantial driver of predicted   
   heat- related deaths, demographic policies and healthy ageing will also   
   be vital if MENA is to successfully adapt to a changing climate.   
      
   Shakoor Hajat, lead author and Professor of Global Environmental Health   
   at LSHTM, said: "Global warming will need to be limited to 2DEGC to   
   avoid the catastrophic health impacts estimated in our study. Even with   
   stronger action, countries in the region need to develop ways other   
   than air-conditioning to protect their citizens from the dangers of   
   extreme heat.   
      
   "Strengthening health systems and better coordination between MENA   
   countries will be key in tackling the health impacts of climate change   
   in the region.   
      
   With COP28 coming up, discussions are needed to consider how countries   
   in the region can better work together to improve resilience in the face   
   of climate change."   
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   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided by   
   London_School_of_Hygiene_&_Tropical_Medicine. Note: Content may be edited   
   for style and length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. Shakoor Hajat, Yiannis Proestos, Jose-Luis Araya-Lopez, Theo   
      Economou,   
         Jos Lelieveld. Current and future trends in heat-related mortality   
         in the MENA region: a health impact assessment with bias-adjusted   
         statistically downscaled CMIP6 (SSP-based) data and Bayesian   
         inference. The Lancet Planetary Health, 2023; 7 (4): e282 DOI:   
         10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00045-1   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/04/230404114158.htm   
      
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