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   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    One is bad enough: climate change raises the threat of back-to-back   
   hurricanes    
      
     Date:   
         February 27, 2023   
     Source:   
         Princeton University, Engineering School   
     Summary:   
         Driven by a combination of rising sea levels and climate change,   
         destructive hurricanes and tropical storms could become far more   
         likely to hit coastal areas in quick succession, researchers   
         found. In some areas such double hits could occur as frequently   
         as once every 3 years.   
      
      
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   FULL STORY   
   ==========================================================================   
   Getting hit with one hurricane is bad enough, but new research from   
   Princeton University's engineering school shows that back-to-back versions   
   may become common for many areas in coming decades.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Driven by a combination of rising sea levels and climate change,   
   destructive hurricanes and tropical storms could become far more likely to   
   hit coastal areas in quick succession, researchers found. In an article,   
   published Feb. 27 in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers   
   said that in some areas, like the Gulf Coast, such double hits could   
   occur as frequently as once every 3 years.   
      
   "Rising sea levels and climate change make sequential damaging hurricanes   
   more likely as the century progresses," said Dazhi Xi, a postdoctoral   
   researcher and a former graduate student in civil and environmental   
   engineering and the paper's lead author. "Today's extremely rare events   
   will become far more frequent."  Researchers led by Ning Lin, an associate   
   professor civil and environmental engineering at Princeton University,   
   first raised questions about increasing frequency of sequential hurricanes   
   after a particularly destructive hurricane season in 2017. That summer,   
   Hurricane Harvey struck Houston followed by Irma in South Florida and   
   Maria in Puerto Rico. The emergency planning challenges raised by 3 major   
   hurricanes led researchers to question whether multiple destructive storms   
   could occur more readily due to climate change, and what steps could be   
   taken to prepare for this. In the late summer of 2021, Hurricane Ida   
   struck Louisiana, followed shortly by Tropical Storm Nicholas, which   
   had made landfall as a hurricane in Texas.   
      
   The researchers said their study showed that sequential storms have   
   become more common on the East Coast and the Gulf Coast, although they   
   remain relatively rare.   
      
   "Sequential hurricane hazards are happening already, so we felt they   
   should be studied," Lin said. "There has been an increasing trend in   
   recent decades."  The researchers ran computer simulations to determine   
   the change in likelihood of multiple destructive storms hitting the same   
   area within a short period of time such as 15 days over this century. They   
   looked at two scenarios: a future with moderate carbon emissions and   
   one with higher emissions. In both cases, the chance of sequential,   
   damaging storms increased dramatically.   
      
   There is a general scientific consensus that climate change will increase   
   the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes in the coming century. But there is   
   some uncertainty in whether the number of storms will increase, decrease,   
   or stay the same over the period, the researchers noted. The model used   
   by Lin's team showed an increasing number of storms, but other models   
   have shown no increase.   
      
   However, Lin's team found that even without an increase in the overall   
   frequency of storms, the increase in intensity will make it much more   
   likely that areas along with East Coast and Gulf Coast will experience   
   sequential storms.   
      
   "The proportion of storms that can have an impact on communities is   
   increasing," Lin said. "The frequency of storms is not as important as the   
   increasing number of storms that can become hazardous."  The increasing   
   hazard is mainly driven by two developments: rising sea levels and   
   increasing precipitation driven by climate change. Sea level rise is   
   occurring worldwide with the changing climate, and it is compounded   
   on the Atlantic coast by geography. As sea levels rise, storm surge   
   becomes more of a threat to coastal communities because the baseline   
   water level is higher. A 3- meter storm surge on top of a historically   
   normal water level is less damaging to roads than the same surge on   
   top of a water level that is elevated by .5 meters. At the same time,   
   storms are intensifying and higher average air temperatures mean that   
   storms carry more water. This means rainfall and flooding from storms   
   are likely to increase.   
      
   The combination of both factors means that storms that might have passed   
   with little notice in the past will become threats, particularly when   
   they hit one after another. In 2021, for example, Tropical Storm Nicholas   
   was relatively weak when it hit Louisiana, but the storm caused more   
   problems than expected because the state was still recovering from the   
   destruction related to Hurricane Ida.   
      
   "Nicholas was quite a weak storm and one reason it produced a significant   
   hazard was that the soil was already saturated," Lin said. "So there was   
   a lot of flooding."  The researchers said it is important for community   
   planners and regional emergency officials to recognize this emerging   
   threat. Improvements in both resilience and response are required to   
   meet the increasing hazard. For resilience, communities will need to   
   deal with increased flooding threats and harden systems that remove   
   floodwater and protect critical infrastructure such as transportation,   
   water systems and power grids. Emergency response teams will have to be   
   prepared to handle multiple storms in relatively quick succession.   
      
   On the state and federal level, this could mean being ready to dispatch   
   resources to many stricken communities at the same time.   
      
   "If a power system requires 15 days to recover from a major hurricane,   
   we cannot wait that long in the future because the next storm can hit   
   before you can restore power, as in the case of Nicholas following Ida"   
   Lin said. "We need to think about plans, rescue workers, resources. How   
   will we plan for this?"   
       * RELATED_TOPICS   
             o Earth_&_Climate   
                   # Severe_Weather # Storms # Hurricanes_and_Cyclones   
                   # Weather # Climate # Global_Warming #   
                   Environmental_Awareness # Geomagnetic_Storms   
       * RELATED_TERMS   
             o Effects_of_global_warming o National_Hurricane_Center o   
             Saffir-Simpson_Hurricane_Scale o Flood o Global_climate_model   
             o Dune o IPCC_Report_on_Climate_Change_-_2007 o Weather   
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided by   
   Princeton_University,_Engineering_School. Original written by John   
   Sullivan. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. Dazhi Xi, Ning Lin, Avantika Gori. Increasing sequential tropical   
      cyclone   
         hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts. Nature Climate Change,   
         2023; DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01595-7   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/02/230227161437.htm   
      
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